Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
- Seneca, philosopher
*I’m using full PPR scoring as my reference.
**Reminder to the reader: these are with standard formats in mind where you choose the starters. WR valuation is highly sensitive to the change in format in my opinion.
***As much as I’d like to have an indicator for risers and fallers, every time I put a (+) sign there’d have to be a corresponding (-) on every other name dropping, which just becomes too messy. Instead, for those players that have noticeably changed ranking, I indicate as “NEW” in the text to show where my updated thoughts are.
Jordan Tyson (AZST) — Having thought about this more as the offseason goes on, it’s becoming more and more clear to me that Tyson is my WR1.
He is the only returning receiver who averaged 20+ PPG last year, and what’s more, he’s one of the only players up here whose QB is returning for another year. There just isn’t the uncertainty that we have with others with Tyson, and I appreciate that. This is a ranking with standard formats as the primary focus, but they can also apply to bestball. In this case, however, that would be one deviation: Jeremiah Smith would be #1 in bestball rankings because I feel that the nuclear potential with him is higher, and bestball is really all about upside. But for standard formats, the verdict is clear to me now: Tyson is #1.
Jeremiah Smith (OSU) — The margin is not huge between Tyson and Smith and as mentioned, Smith would be #1 in a bestball focused ranking. Both he and Tyson feel like the most bulletproof prospects to net at least 15 PPG next year and that’s sort of the measuring stick I use here, not necessarily measuring who has the biggest upside (again, this is with standard formats in mind). It’s easy to get caught up in the hype when doing rankings, but I went back to first principles with this decision; what gave Tyson the edge was: 1) higher returning PPG average and 2) continuity at QB. There will be a new QB for OSU next season, but I generally trust that whoever plays for the Buckeyes will be competent. Plus, Smith was just a true freshman last season and we are, after all, projecting forward on this list, so there are merits to the argument that he’ll be better this year compared to last. You can’t go wrong with either given the information we currently have.