Bond Vigilantism
It's the erosion of the perception of rule of law which keeps investors at bay. Structurally we do feel that the regime is shifting. People prefer corporate balance sheets which are in better shape than some sovereigns.
- Pilar Gomez-Bravo, MFS International
U.S. Treasury bonds have long been considered a “safe haven;” a reliable anchor during turbulent markets. Yet, in recent years, political uncertainty and some erratic behaviours have tested that confidence, injecting volatility into an asset once regarded as virtually risk-free.
In January 2025, Moody's became the last of the three major credit rating agencies to downgrade the U.S. credit rating (following Fitch in 2023 and S&P in 2011), citing long-term fiscal sustainability concerns. While the downgrade wasn't directly tied to recent market volatilities, its timing coincided with renewed investor wariness about U.S. debt holdings.
A similar story has been unfolding in DKR Memorial stadium. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian’s offensive system was once a dependable incubator for running back production—a safe haven, if you will—for CFFers seeking an overweight pig to plug into their backfields. However, much like US Treasury bonds—Sark’s system has recently revealed some unexpected cracks in the armour.
Those most familiar with me know that I am a man who asserts Sark is a wanker at every opportunity (and apologies to the Longhorn readers, this is nothing personal). However, now the other shoe has dropped. Now, what was perhaps Sark’s most redeeming quality—a stellar six year streak of 1000+ yard rushers—has been broken.
If you were paying attention in 2024, you might have seen what happened in 2025 coming. While Tre Wisner’s final output looked good on the surface (he ran for over 1000 yards), he only averaged 14 PPG on the season. Texas ranked 101st nationally in rushing yards per game, and what’s more disturbing: carries were split in such a way that the RB1, Wisner, only saw ~25% team carry share.
This was a far cry from Sark’s previous five years in college football. His RB1s since 2019 were averaging an industrial 21.5 PPG entering this past season, even with Wisner’s average anchoring it down. And this is to say nothing of Najee Harris’ omitted but gargantuan 2020 campaign with the Tide (he and UB’s Jaret Patterson won me a chip that year). A special season indeed.
If I had to guess what the team carry share percentage was for Najee that season, I would posit something like 60%.
Following a down year in 2024 was Sark’s worst RB1 year yet. Texas’ overrated offensive line was not able to provide sufficient push in 2025, thus hindering the running game, somewhat forcing Sark’s hand to move away from running the ball on offence. But yet, what is most disturbing once again is the distribution of carries.
Wisner received a meagre 131, behind him was actually the QB, Arch Manning (who returns), with his 92, and then Christian Clark at 55. To give the reader some context as to how anomalous this behaviour was, here is Sark’s history of RB1s dating back to Washington (2020 included):
The NFL stat lines can basically be ignored from the table. I don’t know why I included them in the first place—maybe just to avoid gaps as much as possible.
Which, on that note, Sark was fired mid-season in 2015, and wasn’t a play caller at Alabama in 2016, hence the non-entries for those seasons.
With the NFL seasons removed from consideration, Sark had had a 1000-yard rusher 12 straight seasons as a play caller dating back to 2009. Keep in mind that Najee Harris’ 2020 numbers don’t include any out-of-conference opponents, since the SEC played only a 10-game regular season that year. On TD volume alone, Sark has never had a better RB1 than 2020 Najee (and he did that with the last Heisman-winning WR on the team, too!).
That season feels like a lifetime away at this point with the Horns bringing in both Daylen “Hollywood” Smothers and Raleek Brown from NC State and Arizona State, respectively.
Both players were RB1s with their previous clubs. Brown signed first when Smothers looked to be rolling with the Tide, only to then announce a flip westward soon after.
Either someone is going to have a wasted year, or this is going to be another tough season for drafters expecting an elite Sark RB1. ◾
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