CFF DFS - Week Seven: Pigs Get Fed, Hogs Get Slaughtered
Man looks in the abyss, there's nothing staring back at him. At that moment, man finds his character. And that is what keeps him out of the abyss.
Man looks in the abyss, there's nothing staring back at him. At that moment, man finds his character. And that is what keeps him out of the abyss.
- Lou Mannheim, Wallstreet (1987)
Welcome back, friends. After a slight hiatus, I’m back today with another Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) post for Week Seven. This time we’re shifting our focus to the intriguing realm of PrizePicks' over/under bets.
As a recap of the last time I did one of these, I presented eight bets, four cleared, and four did not. Ironically, the first four were the ones that cleared:
Oregon WR Troy Franklin to score a REC TD vs. Colorado
Over on Ole Miss WR Jordan Watkins 12.5 fantasy score vs. Alabama
Over on PITT RB Rodney Hammond 61.5 rush yards vs. UNC
Over on UVA QB Brennan Armstrong 34.5 rush yards vs. UVA
We weren’t as fortunate with the next four:
Over on Purdue TE Max Klare 29.5 receiving yards vs. Wisconsin
Over on WISC WR Will Pauling 33.5 receiving yards vs. Purdue
Over on A&M WR Evan Stewart 16.5 fantasy score vs. Auburn
Under on OSU RB Trey Henderson 68.5 rush yards vs. ND
I will point out, however, that Pauling and Klare were pretty close. Pauling actually dropped a pass that would have cleared his total, I believe he finished with around 25 receiving yards. I also mentioned that there is always a possibility that Henderson breaks a long run and clears his rushing prop in a single play, which is exactly what happened, unfortunately. Moral of the story? I guess if you’re going to roll with these plays, the top half are probably the better bets.
(Oklahoma State) RB Ollie Gordon over 14.5 score vs. Kansas — If you haven’t been paying attention to the Pokes (I wouldn’t blame you), you can be forgiven for being unaware of the improvements that have been made on offence lately. One of the notable shifts in play calling is a heightened emphasis on getting true sophomore Ollie Gordon the ball a lot more compared to earlier in the season. After seeing seven, nine and three carries in the first three weeks to open the year, Gordon has now seen 18 and 21 carries in his last two. He scored 17.5 and 21.1 points vs. Iowa State and Kansas State, respectively. Both of those programs are generally considered pretty solid against the run, so the fact that the Pokes were able to rush it efficiently through Gordon is a good sign. Kansas is ranked 82nd overall vs. the run currently, and we just saw UCF’s RB RJ Harvey go for 133 yards on the ground and a score last week, despite losing 51-22. Gordon also gets plenty of opportunities via the air, with a season high of 8 targets in Week Five. Despite the fluctuating volume thus far, Gordon is still averaging 14.4 FPG. If the current usage trend continues, he should be able to clear this prop.
(Oregon) QB Bo Nix over 25.5 score vs. UW — This is the biggest game of the weekend, and in big games you need your big players to make big plays. There is no bigger player in this one than QB Bo Nix, and Oregon will likely be pulling out all the tricks to cut down the CFP aspirations of its arch rival—UW. We don’t really know much about UW due to the fact that the competition they’ve played thus far is fairly weak, and in no-way comparable to an opponent like Oregon, so their defensive numbers are not really relevant. The only times Nix has scored less than 28 points this season were in two blowouts vs. Hawaii and Portland State. In every game he’s played so far, he’s scored over 26 points. I understand PrizePicks’ logic in setting the line at 25.5—UW is Oregon’s toughest opponent to date in 2023. However, I would actually argue that that’s probably a good thing for Nix’ prospects of hitting a higher fantasy score, because this game is expected to go the full 60 (and OT wouldn’t surprise me either), forcing Oregon to keep its foot on the peddle.
(Notre Dame) Audric Estime over 93.5 rush yards vs. USC — Lather up, boys. It’s time to hand it to the big tailback and let him carry you to an upset vs. a volatile — yet dangerous — USC team this weekend. Weather forecasts are calling for heavy rain and heavy wind in South Bend, which spells major trouble for programs built on passing the ball and finessing their way to victory. Thankfully for the Irish, they’re not that great at passing the ball, but they are big and physical up front, with an above average talent at tailback in Audric Estime. Last week was definitely a low point for this program, but I expect the boys to be up for this one—if anything to reclaim some of their honour (in a rivalry game no less). One has to think that ND’s staff will also want to keep the ball out of Caleb Williams’ hands (regardless of wether it’s raining cats and dogs or not), which generally means they’ll want to run the football. I don’t know if ND will win in the end, but I do feel that the conditions (no pun intended) here are set up such that the game script should see Estime getting 20+ carries. If that happens, it feels likely he’ll clear 93 yards rushing. One pitfall of this play is the possibility that ND spreads the carry distribution between Estime and Love.
(Wazzou) WR Josh Kelly under 16.5 score vs. Arizona — Reports this week suggested that Kelly is dealing with an ailment, but pushing through the pain, and is expected to suit up Saturday. That doesn’t give me a lot of confidence that Wazzou is going to target him heavily. It’s true that Lincoln Victor remains out, but even in his absence last weekend, Kelly only scored nine points vs. UCLA. Granted, UCLA’s defence is probably a lot better than Arizona’s, but the lingering ailment does scare me about his role this week.
(Wisconsin) RB Jackson Acker over 29.5 rush yards vs. Iowa — Iowa is generally a strong team against the run, and Wisconsin is generally a strong rushing team, which makes for a great rivalry. This year’s a little different, Iowa is ranked 59th against the run (teams like MSU and Purdue ran it fairly successfully) and Wisconsin is a more balanced attack with OC Phil Longo, but they do still run it effectively. In the first week without RB Chez Mellusi, Jackson Acker stepped up and received 13 carries, of which he paid off for 65 yards. It surprised me, as I had expected Braelon Allen to be leaned on more in Mellusi’s absence. But it seems that this is a team that wants to run with a two-headed monster regardless. Now that Mellusi is gone, I expect that Acker will continue to see volumes similar to last weekend.
(Texas A&M) RB Le’Veon Moss over 67.5 rush yards vs. Tenn — Moss has now seen 15, 17, and 16 carries in his last three games. He’s become the clear RB1 option for the Aggies as of late, and he’s cleared 90 yards rushing in two out of his last three (Alabama held him to 49 yards). Tennessee’s defence is currently averaging 115 yards against per game, which is actually pretty solid (37th ranked nationally), however given the strength of their schedule so far it’s hard to put a lot of stock into that number. When they played a strong running team (UF), Trevor Etienne ran roughshod for 172 yards on 23 carries. Assuming the staff continue their tendency towards feeding Moss 15+ carries a game, it feels like Moss should be able to clear this prop.
(LSU) WR Brian Thomas over 69.5 receiving yards vs. Auburn — Nabers has stolen the headlines on the LSU WR room, but Thomas has quietly closed the gap in terms of production over the past handful of weeks. While Nabers is averaging 128.5 yards per game, his numbers are bolstered disproportionately by a 239 yard performance vs. Mississippi State in Week Three. He has four games over 100 yards out of six. His prop is currently set at 100 yards. Thomas is currently averaging 100.5 yards per game, and has gone over 100 yards three times out of his six games (twice out of his last three). This Auburn matchup should be perfect for the game script of LSU’s players this weekend, with just enough bite to keep LSU engaged and forced to keep their peddle to the floor, but not a good enough defence to stop them from moving the ball effectively.
(Texas A&M) WR Ainias Smith over 13.5 score vs. Tenn — Ainias Smith has now seen eight, 10, four, and eight targets in his last four games. He’s scored over 20 points twice in that span, and over 12 points in the other two. Smith was actually a hair away from reaching the end zone last week vs. Alabama too (he ended up scoring 12.8 points) , but was ruled out of bounds at the 1-yard line on a long reception. He’s always had a good rapport with backup QB Max Johnson, who is filling in for Connor Weigmann who is out for the season. The jury is still out on Tennessee as far as what they are as a team. Many (including me) feel they may just be pretenders this year. I expect A&M to win this one (but I’ll never underestimate Jimbo’s ability to underperform and disappoint), and Smith has been steadily involved in the offence four weeks in a row.
If you enjoyed this content, I encourage you to join the Pig Pen (subscribing), and follow me on twitter.
Have questions? Find out what people are saying about VolumePigs here.
