CFF Series - Looking Ahead to 2024...
CFF Series - Looking Ahead to 2024...
It's never too early to look ahead at the Volume Pigs of the future.
The future belongs to those who prepare for it today.
- Malcom X, activist
It’s never too early to look ahead to the future, and in today’s article we’re going to do just that. In the following text I provide the case for and against six RBs who look primed to be fat volume pigs in the 2024 season.
Of course, there are always surprise breakout players, and transfer movements throughout the offseason, so things could change. But as it stands right now, I feel good about each of these players, with a few feeling like potential first round players in next year’s CFF drafts.
Jonah Coleman (5’9, 225) — Arizona
True sophomore Jonah Coleman is a heavy RB who also catches passes—I mean, what more can you ask for? We got a glimpse of what he can do as the primary bellcow in Michael Wiley’s absence vs. USC (22 carries for 143 yards plus four catches for 37 yards), scoring 22 points in the process. He also tore threw Washington State the following week (38.8 points), but did so splitting reps.
This is not a staff that has typically handed it to its RB1 20+ times a game (at least, from what I can tell), but when you look at the receiving usage Wiley got last year in addition to his carries, the touch volume is quite attractive. Assuming Wiley moves on this offseason, Coleman feels like a popular pick amongst many a CFF manager in that round three-five range potentially. That being said, despite his receiving usage, Coleman may not be viewed as strong of a receiver as his predecessor, who sports a more traditional pass catching build (6’0, 215). That could manifest in an increase in touches via carries, the way we saw vs. USC.
What gives me pause is that the staff don’t really have an extended track record to rely on. The OC—Brennan Caroll (son of Pete), never served in a play calling role until he got to the Cats in 2021. His previous stints were as run-game coordinator and offensive line coach for the Seattle Seahawks. HC Jedd Fischer was the QBs coach at New England in 2020, and an assistant coach (non-play caller) for the LA Rams before that. He did serve as OC at several collegiate and NFL programs before that, however.
Pros:
Good size and catches passes
Has some history of strong production and volume
Replacing a player who saw a lot of touches in the program
Cons:
Not a staff with an extended track record to rely on
Limited sample size on Coleman’s production
Ashton Jeanty (5’9, 210) — Boise State
Another true sophomore, BSU’s Ashton Jeanty out of Jacksonville, Florida is one who probably needs no introduction. Forget 2024, Jeanty is a dominant pig in 2023 already. He wasn’t expected to be this dominant, as fellow RB George Holani decided to return to the program this year. And technically speaking, from what I hear Holani could actually return again next year. We’ll assume for the purposes of this exercise that that won’t be the case.
Despite leaving his last game early, Jeanty still leads all RBs in FPG average with 30.5. He’s still the only non-QB currently who is averaging 30 points or more per game, which is obviously quite impressive. The staff at BSU relied on Holani for years, so we can probably infer (especially given what we saw this season in his absence), that they will lean on Jeanty once Holani moves on. Jeanty is a dominant talent at the MWC level, he has a history of elite production, holds requisite size to handle a steady workload, and plays under a staff with a steady track record of volume pig usage. Oh, and he also catches passes regularly. For these reasons and others, as I mentioned a few weeks ago, he’s potentially my 1.01 in 2024 drafts. There’s another player who’s inserted themselves into the conversation over the last few weeks, who I will talk about some more in a bit.
What I can say pretty definitively is that Jeanty will have a first round grade by most CFF managers headed into drafts next summer.
Pros:
Good size and catches passes
Already has history of elite production and volume
Replacing a player who saw a lot of touches in the program*
Plays under a staff with a steady pattern at RB
Cons:
Veteran RB may choose to come back*
Playing on a G5 team runs the risk of some rough OOC opponents in September
Phil Mafah (6’1, 230) — Clemson
HC Dabo Swinney may be losing his mind a little bit, but he still recruits the Peach State with the best of them. One of the fruits of this labour has shown signs of blossoming over his first two seasons, and may finally get the chance to show what he can do as the primary feature in the Tigers offence in 2024.
One of the bigger backs on this list, true junior Phil Mafah was overshadowed by the flashy five-star RB—Will Shipley, in his own class, but has shown himself to be a strong runner when given the opportunities. He flashed in Week Nine after Shipley left early with a concussion—taking 16 carries for 84 yards and two scores (24.2 points).
Again, we’ll assume Will Shipley will be moving on after this season, but he does have eligibility left, so that’s one thing to keep in mind.
As far as at the staff level, HC Dabo Swinney has been around some of the better RBs CFB has seen in the last decade, and his OC did a good job with Kendre Miller (6’0, 220) last year at TCU, who has a similar body type to Mafah.
Mafah feels like a potential round three-five player in 2024 drafts.
Pros:
Good size and catches passes
Has some history of strong production and volume
Replacing a player who saw a lot of touches in the program*
Plays under a staff with a steady pattern at RB
Cons:
Veteran RB may choose to come back*
Limited sample size on Mafah’s production
Ollie Gordon (6’1, 211) — Oklahoma State
Ollie ‘OGII’ Gordon is a straight up, certified baller. If you’ve been reading my weekly recap articles you’ve probably already heard me rave about him, so maybe there’s not much to say at this point. Like Jeanty, he’s already elite in terms of production (actually leads the FBS in rushing currently), but unlike our man Ashton, there’s no impending doom awaiting via another — more veteran — RB in the fold.
It’s hard to find a strike against OGII, and that generally bodes well for his chances of finding himself as my 1.01 next season.
Pros:
Good size and catches passes
Has history of elite production and volume
Is already the primary bellcow of his team, with no notable competition
Plays under a staff with an elite pattern at RB
Cons:
Somewhat limited sample size on his production
Cedric Baxter (6’1, 218) — Texas
Texas’ Jonathan Brooks has been a revelation for the Horns this season, currently averaging 22.9 FPG as the bellcow for their program. While Brooks is only in his third season, it is likely he will choose to head off for the NFL this offseason, leaving a sizeable amount of vacated touches for the next man up. Who will be the next man up? Well, at this point, nobody has that answer. But one name that has a good chance of securing the coveted UT RB1 role is true freshman Cedric ‘C4’ Baxter, out of Edgewater, Florida.
What’s promising for Baxter’s claim at the throne next year is that he’s already decently involved in the run game, even more so than sophomore RB Jadon Blue. Blue currently sits at 27 carries through seven games, while C4 sports a much more attractive 59 carries across seven games (despite leaving a game early with injury). Certainly, of this list so far Baxter has the most strikes against him, but he’ll be one CFF managers are monitoring closely this offseason, after what we’ve seen Sarkisian do with Najee Harris, Bijan Robinson, and now Jonathan Brooks.
If it is communicated that Baxter has won the starting role in the offseason, Baxter could find himself in the back end of first rounds in 2024.
Pros:
Good size
Elite pedigree (five star recruit)
Replacing a player who saw a lot of touches in the program*
Plays under a staff with an elite pattern at RB
Cons:
No history of strong usage or production
Will have to compete to win the starting RB role
Veteran RB could choose to return*
Hasn’t been used much as a pass-catching RB so far
Darius Taylor (5’11, 210) — Minnesota
True freshman Darius Taylor became the next RB1 in a long line of volume pig RBs under current Gopher HC PJ Fleck earlier this season, when he broke out with 193 yards on 33 carries versus Eastern Michigan.
Unfortunately, as we’ve seen happen often with PJ Fleck RBs, Taylor succumbed to injury in Week Four, and did not finish the game on his return in Week Eight. Nonetheless, the damage has been done and Taylor is officially on every CFF manager’s radar headed into 2024.
Pros:
Good size and catches passes
Already took over as the bellcow of his team before injury
Plays under a staff with an elite pattern at RB
Cons:
Coming off injury in 2023
May have to compete to regain RB1 role in offseason
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