CFF Targets - Braylon Braxton turned SUPER SAIYAN under new HC?
Tulsa's gunslinger found himself in a fortunate position this offseason with the hiring of Tulsa's new head coach; VP explores the CFF implications
I've got a rep as a sick individual
'Cause my material's original, plus critical
- East Flatbush Project, musician
While I can relate to EFP’s lyric — at least, the sick individual part — I suspect you don’t need to be a CFB sicko to have come in contact with the offseason hype surrounding today’s player—Braylon Braxton.
Braxton will likely be the starting QB for the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes in 2023, and a strong stretch of play towards the end of 2022, combined with a new staff with a penchant for elite QB development, has CFF players giddy about the potential. New Tulsa head coach Kevin Wilson joins the program by way of Ohio State, which is a program that has had a little bit of success with QBs lately (at least, in the CFF context).
So what better way to introduce today’s player than a deep dive into the staff’s history? (I say that like we don’t start with the same format every time…)
Coaching & System
New Tulsa head coach comes with an illustrious background at the QB position. He was the OC at Ohio State (OSU) during what is likely it’s best era of QB play, with CJ Stroud, Justin Fields, Dwayne Haskins (RIP) and JT Barrett each playing for him for at least one season.
While many of you are already aware of what Stroud has done the past two seasons, as a refresher, the passer threw for 3688 yards and a 41 to 6 TD-INT ratio in 2022, but he actually had his best statistical season in his first year as the starter—passing for 4435 yards and 44 TDs to only 6 INTs.
Before Stroud, there was UGA transfer Justin Fields, who was more potent as a rusher than Stroud, accumulating 383 (8 games) and 484 rushing yards in 2020 and 2019, respectively. He also ran for 5 and 10 TDs. His passing numbers were nothing to scoff at either—in his only full season under Wilson, he passed for 3273 yards and 41 TDs to 3 INTs. That was with a 2000-yard rusher in the backfield, too.
Prior to Fields there was Dwayne Haskins, who in 2018 passed for over 4800 yards and converted 50(!) TDs to 8 INTs. Despite being known as a fairly ‘immobile' QB’, he also rushed for 4 TDs.
JT Barrett had himself an excellent season in 2017 under Wilson’s tutelage also, securing 3053 pass yards and 798 rush yards to go along with 9 and 12 TDs respectively.
Notably, Wilson also had Heisman trophy winner Sam Bradford while he OC’d the Sooners in 2008. Bradford torched the BIG-12 that year, amassing 4720 passing yards and a 50-8 TD-INT ratio.
There are other notable performances under Wilson’s watch, but I think you get the point by now. This is a man who’s been around a lot of elite passers, and he’s shown that he will use his QB as a runner if they have the aptitude.
The OC—Steve Spurier Jr., joined the staff with Wilson this offseason. He has no prior experience as an OC or play caller, and his last stop was as the WRs coach for Mississippi State. Besides his name, I don’t think there’s anything particularly noteworthy about Jr.
QB Braylon Braxton — 6’3, 222
Braxton, a native of Frisco, TX, is entering his fourth year of college football within the Tulsa program. When the previous coaching staff was turned over last season, there were rumours swirling that he might contemplate other options. If there were any doubts, those were quelled immediately as Wilson made him a priority right away. Here’s an excerpt from a recent report out of Tulsa:
The following week, Kevin Wilson was hired and made Braxton an immediate priority, persuading him to stay as one of the primary pieces on the Hurricane roster.
“We’re fortunate to have (Braxton) back,” Wilson said. “He’s a tough kid and he’s a competitor.
The 6’3 inch gunslinger is a perfect fit for Wilson, in my opinion. The sizes of the QBs Wilson’s mentored in the past have typically been in the plus range (e.g., 6’2—225, 6’4—230, 6’3—228). While it is not a forgone conclusion that Braxton will be the starter in Tulsa next season, I think we can infer that it is highly likely. Here is an excerpt from a report out of spring:
Braxton, who appeared in nine games last year and produced 15 touchdowns, is among 12 appointed leaders on TU’s team given more responsibility and being held accountable for the players within their group.
“He was the leading vote-getter from the team,” Wilson said. “He’s one of the most respected guys on the team. He is a great worker.”
“He’s elusive, has a great arm and he’s a great option (at quarterback) for us.”
During the spring, Braxton is going through the process of an open competition at quarterback, a position that includes Roman Fuller, Stephen Kittleman, Cardell Williams and Nate Ratcliff.
“Those other guys are pretty good there, and we need more than one guy,” Wilson said. “No one’s been anointed, but he’s in a position to be an impact player. I think he could be a special player.”
A dual-threat quarterback out of Frisco, Texas, Braxton is learning a new offense for a second time in three years. He played in four games while redshirting in 2021, earning valuable experience.
As alluded to in the quotes, technically Braxton is only entering his second season of college ball, as he did not play in 2020, and redshirted in 2021. From a dynasty perspective, this makes him very attractive; but even from a standard CFF re-draft lens, there is value here also due to Wilson’s track record and Braxton’s skill set.
When Braxton got his chance to start last season in Davis Brin’s absence, his performances were fairly mixed. The last two games of the season were fantastic—he scored 38.74 and 33.38 points (4pt passing TD) against Houston and South Florida, respectively. Against Houston, he passed for over 300 yards and 3 TDs, while running 11 times for 51 yards and another score. Versus USF, he once again passed for over 300 yards, adding one passing and two rushing scores on 8 carries.
The two games prior, the output was not as desirable. He scored 10.12 points vs. Memphis, and 14.04 points vs. Tulane when Brin got knocked out of the game early. He attempted 24 and 25 passes in each of those games, respectively.
My guy is so dynamic, he even caught a pass in 2022. I don’t suspect he’ll be doing too much of that going forward, but I do expect him to be used on the ground in addition to the typical aerial duties. He may not be as precise and accurate as Haskins and Stroud (he almost certainly isn’t), and not as explosive on the ground as Barrett or Fields, but there should be a nice middle ground that he can find, particularly considering he’ll be competing at the Group of Five (G5) level.
Concerns
I don’t have many, actually. One that comes to mind is that whenever there’s a new staff in town, there is uncertainty with the player, play calling etc.
Another that comes to mind is we have a limited sample size to operate on. Similar to USF’s Byrum Brown, the few starts he had were very good, and suggest he could be a top-10 QB in CFF. But the sample is small, which means the evaluation has to be discounted some.
They say there is an open QB competition currently going down, but I think we all know what time it is (Brax SZN).
Closing
Braxton currently sports an ADP of 182.7, which is about the 15th round in a 12-teamer. That’s fantastic value even in a CFF re-draft league where you only typically get 16-17 rounds. I’ll take shares at that price all day long. Accordingly (and sorry in advance about this article), his ADP is climbing—in June he averaged around 158, which is closer to the 13th round. That’s still a good deal.
Don’t even get me started on the value in a dynasty format. He has eligibility to return next year and that’s a real possibility. He has a very real chance of being a first round-valued QB in CFF headed into the 2024 season should he return.
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