CFF Targets - The Two Amigos of Akron
CFF Targets - The Two Amigos of Akron
Akron's duo of DJ Irons and Alex Adams should do some major damage in the MAC this season, and I plan to be well invested in each.
My friends, welcome back to the CFF Targets series. We are approaching the one-month anniversary of these articles, and I have to say, the feedback and support have been fantastic so far, so kudos to all of you. Hopefully, I can continue to provide some value to you today. We are headed back to the MAC, one of my favorite conferences for CFF, to take a look at the Akron Zips' dynamic duo, Alex Adams and DJ Irons.
When finding topics for these articles, I never know where I'll end up, and today I find myself writing about arguably the worst team in all of Division 1 FBS last year. But that doesn't matter in CFF (well, not really at least); what matters is whether the system in place funnels volume through a select few players, and they do in Akron. This profile is actually the first of this series that includes a QB, so this is an inaugural article of sorts. I am pretty excited about these two Akron players headed into 2023, and hopefully, I can convince you to join in my excitement. As always let’s take a look at the system before diving into the players...
Coaching (System)
Joe Moorhead (2022 - present) has had a coaching career that has taken him all over the country, including the BIG10, SEC, PAC12, and more. But he now finds himself back at Akron, where he previously served as WRs coach and eventually OC between 2004 and 2008. He architected the system in Oregon in 2021 that saw QB Anthony Brown account for 27 total TDs and 3647 total yards. However, when sifting through his track record, I was not all that impressed with his work.
The real hero of this show is rising star OC Billy Fessler (2022 - present). Fessler came to Akron after working two seasons on the Ohio State coaching staff in 2020 and 2021 as an offensive graduate assistant for the Buckeyes. Ohio State led the NCAA in scoring offence (45.7 ppg) in 2021, while ranking second in team passing efficiency (182.34) and third in passing offence (380.9 ypg). Fessler was named one of the Top-30 Coaches Under 30 by 247Sports in 2019 while at Mississippi State under coach Moorhead. In 2022, he served as the quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator for Akron. He was promoted this offseason to OC while retaining QB coach duties.
Judging by what Moorhead had to say about him I think CFF managers should be excited at the prospect of what this Akron O could be next season:
We are very excited to announce the promotion of Coach Fessler to Offensive Coordinator . . . In one season, he’s done a phenomenal job developing DJ Irons, who earned all-conference honors, and the entire QB room. He’s also played a major role in the improvement of our offense in every statistical category, while becoming one of the top-passing offenses in the MAC and NCAA. I’m excited to watch our offence and QB’s grow under Coach Fessler’s tutelage.
I agree, Fessler's work with the Zips' passing offense last season was impressive. The team supported two fantasy-relevant WRs toward the back half of the season, and now 6’6 Georgia native DJ Irons returns to QB this system once again in 2023, and I suspect his level of play will be improved.
QB DJ Irons - 6’6 205
DJ Irons is entering his third season of college football with the Zips. Depending on the format you play, he averaged around 20 (6 point pass TD) or 18 fantasy points per game (FPG) in 2022. However, as CFF managers with aspirations of winning our leagues, we typically want our QBs to hover around 27-30 FPG, so there’s some work that needs to be done here.
What intrigues me about Irons is the volume. In 2022, Irons attempted 379 passes and ran 133 times in only 10 games, if you’re doing the math at home that’s good for 51.2 plays a game where Irons was eligible for fantasy points. Of those 379 attempts he completed 253, which is actually not bad, this is about a 67% completion percentage. The total yardage he accumulated was also solid as he finished his 10-game campaign just shy of 3000 total yards (almost 300 yards a game). The real problem and lack of fantasy points derives from this offence’s inability to finish drives with TDs. Irons only accounted for 10 TDs passing and 4 rushing, averaging less than a 1 TD and a half per game in 2022. That simply won’t cut it in CFF. Part of the lack of TDs is a reflection of the fact that the team overall was very poor last season, but the QB and the offence bear some responsibility for that too.
However, as we’ve seen before things in the MAC can change quickly. There have been several teams in recent years who have architected massive turnarounds in one offseason, and I expect Akron to take a big step forward next year under year two of the Moorhead/Fessler regime. The continuity of Fessler as QB coach should immensely benefit Irons, who has the physique and natural ability to absolutely shred MAC defences next season. The volume is already there for him, and he is already pretty efficient with that volume, the final step is to convert drives into scores and I think with rising star Fessler calling the shots the Zips will do just that. Of note, the conversion of yards to TDs will not only benefit Irons, someone has to catch these TD passes right? I know who I’m targeting this season…
WR Alex Adams - 6’1, 185
By any definition of MAC standards, Alex Adams is an athletic freak. The 6’1, 185-pound Mississippi native originally played for LSU in 2020 and 2021 before transferring to Akron in search of more reps. His first campaign was a successful one, as he brought in 63 passes to the tune of 855 yards and 9 (!) TDs in 11 games. I add the exclamation besides 9 because if you recall, DJ Irons only threw 10 passing TDs, and his backup, Jeff Undercuffler Jr. (all-name team, by the way), who filled in when Irons was unavailable with an arm injury, only threw 5 TDs. Of those 5 TDs, 3 of them were to Adams. I am comforted by the fact that it appears both QBs have a connection with Adams. As is the case with all dual-threat QBs like Irons, the risk of injury looms large. It’s nice to have assurances that both QBs like to funnel targets to the WR of interest.
Indeed, in 2022 it didn’t matter who was playing QB for the Zips, Adams was a textbook volume pig. In his 11 games he was targeted 88 times (8 targets per game) and averaged 5.7 catches, 77.7 yards and 0.81 TDs a game. He finished 2022 averaging 18.41 FPG (1-ppr) on a team that went 2-10 and only passed for 15 total TDs, that’s pretty f***ing good if you ask me.
Even though Adams himself had a pretty good TD total in 2022, the fact that he maintained that level of FPG despite the environment has to grab your attention. In 2021, my pre-draft WR1 was Ball State’s Justin Hall. In hindsight, that might not sound crazy, but consider that I had him ranked above the likes of Kayshon Boutte, David Bell, and Chris Olave. The reason was simple: Justin Hall accounted for over 20 FPG as a WR the season prior while only scoring 5 total TDs in the 7 games he played. If I were to make some sort of finance analogy, high levels of FPG despite low levels of TDs would be one of the leading indicators for an undervalued stock or a future predictor of success.
In our case, the situation is slightly different, but we can apply a similar line of reasoning. In Adams, we have a player who still managed to secure a strong number of TDs despite an overall low level of team TDs. This bodes well for our own forecast because, at the very least, if Akron performs poorly again next season, we can still be confident that Adams is going to perform well (that’s the base case). The optimistic case is: what the hell is Adams going to do if this offense figures out how to convert more TDs? Yes, Irons is a dual-threat QB who is undoubtedly going to score on the ground, but Adams is the undisputed go-to WR1 now (more on this below), and new OC Fessler learned from a system in OSU that feeds its starting WRs like it’s a religion.
Adams’ primary competition at WR, Shocky Jacques Louis, departs for the NFL
In 2022, Adams was arguably the WR2 for the Zips. While he led the team in receiving TDs, it was Shockey Jacque Louis (University of Pittsburgh transfer) who led the team in receptions (74) and receiving yardage (931) with 112(!) targets over his 12 games. This makes the fact that Adams averaged over 18 FPG even more impressive. Now, his primary competition for targets is gone, vacating just over 9 targets a game, and so I expect Adams’ levels of volume to increase in 2023. I suppose there is always the risk that someone else steps up in Louis’ absence, but as of now, I like where Adams stands in this offense.
At the risk of using another misplaced analogy in these articles, what I am saying about Adams is that I expect his slice of pie to increase while the overall size of the Akron pie increases in parallel. He already averaged nearly 20 FPG on this TD-poor offence in 2022, hitting that 20 point threshold should be well within his reach in 2023. That is especially true in MAC play but the out of conference schedule sets up well for the Zips also, playing at Kentucky and Indiana isn’t great but they balance it out with two games vs. FCS school Morgan State and fellow G5 Temple. Wheels up for Adams if you ask me!
Anyways, I am starting to experience immense levels of frustration as I wait for my Uber Eats delivery that is over one hour late, so I will end things here: I plan to draft Adams everywhere I can this summer if he's available in round 4 and beyond (I don’t draft WRs before round 4 on principle, will explain more on this in a later article). I will also be looking to acquire DJ Irons as a stack partner, though he should be much cheaper. You probably won't have to reach for him any higher than round 10.