CFF Targets - These WR sleepers could be in for a BIG 2023
These three WRs are unlikely to be drafted in re-drafts this summer, but could be in for huge 2023 campaigns: Javon Harvey, Jayden Ballard, & Jaylen Johnson.
When it comes to wide receivers in college fantasy football, it's not always the biggest names that eat. In fact, I've noticed that every season there are some seriously prolific players who fly under the radar and go undrafted in most CFF leagues. Take Charlie Jones and Jalin Hyatt, for example. In 2022, these two studs finished in the top 5 WRs by FPG, with scores of 24.34 and 23.64 (1-ppr), respectively. And yet, most managers didn't even consider them in their drafts - or if they did, they waited until the late rounds to snag them.
But that's not all. Deven Thompkins, a standout WR in 2021, was also overlooked by many drafters, as was Jonathan Adams Jr. in 2020. And I can't forget about my own success story from 2019, when I plucked a little-known WR named Ja’Marr Chase off the waiver wire and watched him explode into a star.
The bottom line is this: if you want to succeed in CFF, you need to think outside the box and be willing to take risks on players that others might overlook. Keep your eyes peeled for those hidden gems, and don't be afraid to take a chance on an unheralded player who could end up being a game-changer. After all, that's what separates the champions from the also-rans.
I am not suggesting that I have the magic crystal ball that will lead you to these hidden gems, but hopefully I can highlight some players worth monitoring and provide some food for thought.
Old Dominion WR Javon Harvey - 5’11, 180
Javon Harvey, a rising junior and local product hailing from Norfolk, Virginia, is poised to have a standout 2023 season. In 2022, Harvey emerged as the second leading receiver for Old Dominion, hauling in 30 receptions for 558 yards and 4 touchdowns in just 9 games. As a freshman in 2021, he showed his versatility by securing 11 passes for 114 yards and rushing for 6 yards on a carry. He’ll be doing most of his damage through the air though, and I think 2023 will be a big year for Harvey.
Harvey finds himself in an elite system
New OC Kevin Decker spent the previous four seasons as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach with the Fordham Rams. This past season, Fordham led the FCS and had the second-best offense in FCS history with 609 yards per game and ranked second in the country with 49.5 points per game. The Rams also led the FCS in first downs and passing offence. Fordham quarterback Tim DeMorat led the country in touchdown passes, total touchdowns, passing yards and total offence with (brace yourself for this), 4891 yards and 56 passing TDs to only 10 INTs.
You’re probably thinking, wow that’s a lot of passing TDs, someone had to catch all those passes right? Well, three players actually. In 2022 Fordham provided THREE 1000 yard receivers with the top dog catching 104 passes for 1354 yards and 15 TDs.
The season before that the Rams didn’t have a 1000 yard receiver (they had two that were close though) but they did see two receivers catch double digit TD passes.
So we can be pretty confident that the 2023 system at ODU is going to be passing a lot, and Harvey is the lead returning receiver. If you’re not already in at least chub mode right now then let’s spice things up even more.
QB Hayden Wolf is set to return for the Monarchs in 2023. Regardless of personal opinions on his ability, this is a QB who threw Ali Jennings 959 yards and 9 TDs in 9 games last season. During that time, Jennings also managed to score a TD pass in 7 consecutive games with Wolf at the helm, and was targeted a staggering 88 times in total — averaging 9.77 targets per game, with an average of 6 catches per contest. This level of target funnelling is exactly what you want to see from the QB of the WR you’re interested in. While the OC will be new in 2023 (as mentioned above), the head coach that oversaw high levels of production for Jennings returns, and I can’t help but wonder out loud whether they will deploy a similar strategy with Harvey.
Lastly, with ODU's three star playmakers — WR A. Jennings, TE Z. Kunts, and RB B. Watson — having moved on, there are significant shoes to fill for the Monarchs. The opportunity for Harvey is here and the system in place is well equipped to provide the platform for him to reach volume pig status in 2023.
Ohio State WR Jayden Ballard - 6’2, 196
Ballard may not be the Ohio State University (OSU) WR that garners the most attention from the CFB or CFF community this offseason. Marvin Harrison Jr. (MHjr) is undoubtedly the top target, with Emeka Egbuka also likely to be a top pick in the first few rounds. Others may take a chance on Fleming in the later rounds, or even consider one of the incoming freshmen, such as Innis or Tate. However, I would like to suggest another option that your CFF league mates may not have thought of.
While we can expect MHjr to be the WR1 in 2023, and Egbuka to secure WR2, the question remains as to who will lock down the final WR spot in this high-powered offence. Everyone knows by now that the OSU system keeps its starting WRs on the field at essentially all times (to their detriment in fact — got to love having dead legs two years in a row vs. ‘the team up north’), but that’s good for us as CFF managers, the volume is here. Following the logic we can see that having one of the starting WRs in this offence, even if it’s WR3, will be valuable. That’s where I believe Ballard comes in.
Ballard is going to beat out Fleming (and whoever else) for WR3
Maybe that’s a bold take, but let's be honest, Julian Fleming hasn't lived up to his recruiting ranking. The nation's #1 WR in 2020 has struggled to stay on the field, and even when he plays, he often fails to gain separation and has too many drops. Even in the event that OSU opens the season with Fleming as WR3, recent history suggests that it is likely Fleming will be missing significant time, in which case having the next guy up would be valuable.
One thing the OSU WR room has lacked in the last two seasons is a burner who can stretch the field. Jameson Williams would have been that guy in 2021, and in 2022, despite having one of the best WR corps in CFB, they lacked elite speed. While there isn't much information available on Ballard's latest speed measurements, anyone familiar with the OSU WR room knows about his ability to fly. Here's what former OSU WR Chris Olave had to say about Ballard in 2022:
Jayden Ballard’s my guy, and I can’t wait to see him take off . . . His speed is off the charts. He’s 6-3, he’s probably like 200 pounds now, so he’s got that body frame and he's a deep threat. Once he develops his route running, he’s going to be one of the best in the country.
Marvin Harrison Jr. echoed the same sentiment:
We all know he has the speed and he can run probably the fastest on the team right now, but the route-running ability he's improved on since last year.
Ballard came in to Columbus during the 2021 class and has played sparingly so far. He did virtually nothing in year one and in his sophomore season he caught 8 passes for 155 yards and a TD, most of those stats coming in one game vs. Toledo.
Ballard offers significant CFF upside and is likely to go undrafted in the majority of re-drafts this summer. Spring and summer reports will be important to monitor, but I think at some point in the 2023 season Ballard takes over at WR3. Moreover, taking into account that OSU's preseason WR3 and WR2 have led the team in receiving for the past two seasons respectively, Ballard could have a significant impact in 2023 if he secures WR3.
East Carolina WR Jaylen Johnson - 6’2, 197
I’m rooting for Jaylen Johnson. A product of Duluth, GA, JJ began his career at UGA in 2019. He had a tough time finding the field during his tenure in Athens though, and so he decided to try a fresh start in Greenville, NC. In his first season with the Pirates, he had a solid showing, catching 26 passes for 340 yards and 4 TDs in just 9 games (good for third on ECU in receiving yards and third amongst WRs for RECs). JJ was competing for snaps with established WRs Isaiah Winstead and CJ Johnson (who both went over 1000 yards receiving in 2022), as well as TE Ryan Jones, but all three of those players have since moved on. Additionally, the starting RB Keaton Mitchell is also gone, which creates a major opportunity for JJ to emerge as the top playmaker for the Pirates in 2023.
Jaylen Johnson is the last man standing at ECU
ECU has one of the largest production vacancies heading into the 2023 season. Between the departures of 2022’s WR1, WR2, TE1 and RB1, ECU loses 223 receptions, 2766 yards receiving and 21 receiving TDs.
As mentioned earlier, the ECU offence in 2022 produced two 1000-yard receivers, and the coaching staff responsible for that production returns for the 2023 season. However, the primary concern is who will be the starting QB in 2023. At the time of writing, Mason Garcia appears to be the likely candidate. Despite entering his fourth season with the Pirates, Garcia's playing time has been limited, as he has been behind Holton Ahlers for the entirety of his time in Greenville. Nevertheless, Garcia appears to be in pole position for the starting role this offseason. I am confident that whoever starts for ECU will at the very least be serviceable, what’s most important is whether they concentrate the pass volume to one or two players, and the recent history of play calling under this staff suggests that they will.