College Football's Next Triple-Crown Winning WR
College Football's Next Triple-Crown Winning WR
Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown.
- Shakespeare, Henry IV (Part 2)
Only three players in the history of college football have led the sport in all three major receiving categories in the same season: WKU’s Jerreth Sterns in 2021, Alabama’s Devonta Smith in 2020, and Texas Tech’s Michael Crabtree in 2007. When you consider just how many players have played division one FBS college football throughout its 100+ year history, that is a pretty amazing feat. Aptly named the triple crown of college football, it is a rare distinction indeed.
That being said, Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan has a strong shot at being CFB’s next triple crown winner in 2024. We know he’s talented—we’ve known that since high school when he was initially given a five star rating (eventually finished as a high four star) coming out of the Anaheim area. The next crucial part of the equation is the usage. Here is what Arizona OC Dino Babers said about the plan for WR Tetairoa McMillan this season:
We understand that we only got him for (this season). We understand that. My thing is: we’re going to use him. I know how to use people, and he wants to be used and we want to use him.
If you’re the best player, you’re going to get the ball and we’re going to give you opportunities to make plays so we can win games.
That’s what we love to hear. And obviously, if you’re reading this you probably already knew about TMac and were probably already drafting him high in the first round of your CFF drafts. Or, if you’re not a CFF player, you at least knew about TMac and were aware that he is probably going to be a first round NFL draft pick next April. However, I always think it’s helpful—even for known commodities—to take a deep dive in what the profile looks like. So let’s do that.
Coaching & System
WR1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 12.68 — OC: 9.71 (half ppr)
There is a new regime in T-town and that always brings excitement, and uncertainty. Thankfully we have quotes from the staff, including the one above, that give us some indication of the plan on offence. Brent Brennan is the new head coach by way of San Jose State. His Spartans weren’t necessarily known for the WR production, but they did have some solid producers, including Elijah Cooks in 2022 (1076 receiving yards), Tre Walker in 2019 (1161), and Billy Gaither in 2020 (725 yards in seven games).
If you look at the table below, his target share numbers historically won’t blow you away.
The OC—Dino Babers is better when it comes to historical WR usage. He comes over after spending eight seasons as the head coach of Syracuse. During his time with the Orange, his programs produced three 1000-yard WRs, including Steve Ishmael, who caught over 100 hundred passes (105) in 2016 for 1347 yards and seven scores.
Notably, his Orange also had a season (2017) with two WRs catching over 90 passes, with one going over 1400 yards. It should be noted that the third 1000-yard receiver under Babers at Syracuse came in 2019, and he finished with 1023 yards. TE/WR Orande Gadsden was close in 2022 with over 960 as well.
Though more recently his Orange leaned heavier on the ground game and spread touches among the WRs, as can be seen by the target shares in Table 2. My impression is that Babers will morph the offence around who the best players are. In the case of 2016 and 2017, those were the WRs and he featured them heavily. In the latter years, it would appear that they lacked playmakers along the perimeter and leaned heavier on the RBs and/or rotating WRs.
I think I’d say the same about Brennan. His Spartans leaned heavily on the run this past year, which had enormous benefits for CFF players, but that wasn’t typical of his teams. He’s a coach who has seemingly morphed his system around the personnel, and given what he has inherited at AU (returning QB Noah Fifita also returns, but you already knew that), it’s logical to think that the Wildcats are going to lean on the passing connection between Fifita and McMillan a lot. In fact, it was the RB Jonah Coleman who was seemingly the only player who followed the previous staff up to Seattle.
When we look at the tendencies of both coaches, there is a stark contrast. Brennan’s five year average is about a 52/48 pass to run split. Whereas Babers over the last five years averages a 58/42 split in favour of the run. However, I’m sure if we expanded this sample to include the 2016 and 2017 seasons, that split would be closer to a balanced 50/50 approach (e.g., 54/46 or something like that).
Brennan’s SJSU Spartans moved slowly on offence, averaging over 28.5 seconds per play last year, which ranked 111th in the FBS. His three year average while at SJSU was 29.5 seconds per play. Babers’ offences move at a higher tempo. In 2023, Syracuse ranked 61st in the FBS with 25.8 seconds per play. Though even his three year average at Syracuse tells a slightly different tale at 28.8 seconds per play on average.
If I had to guess, this team will skew closer to Brennan’s 52/48 split in favour of the pass, and they will probably move at about an average pace (26-27) seconds per play this year.
Tetairoa McMillan (6’5, 210)
2023 STATS: 90 (134) - 1402 - 10 (22.8)
McMillan was originally rated a five star prospect in the class of 2022, but ultimately finished as a four star. What does it really matter at this point, right? He’s a five star whatever you want to call him. Already considered a lock for the first round next April, McMillan’s basically been a stud at AU since day one.
In his first year with the program, he caught 39 out of his 81 targets for 702 yards and eight scores. The catch to target ratio is a bit alarming, but maybe not as alarming as the fact that he received 81 targets(!) as a true freshman. Absurd.
His sophomore season this past year was more efficient and productive, as expected. He caught 90 out of his 134 targets for 1402 yards and 10 scores, averaging almost 23 PPG in 1ppr formats.
Here is what 247 Sports’ Greg Biggins said about TMac coming out of high school:
Has a long, 6-4 frame and plenty of room to add good weight. Shows the ability to be a dominant two-way player but is being recruited primarily as a receiver. Has high level body control, is a natural pass catcher and makes the spectacular catch look routine.
Is a standout basketball and volleyball player and uses his jumping ability to routinely win jump ball battles down the field or in the red zone. Has very good hands and his ability to adjust to the football is exceptional.
Isn’t a burner but is very good after the catch and is a very polished route runner. Catches the ball well through contact and just needs to work on his top-end speed to take his game to another level.
As is usually the case with 6’5 inch tall specimens, his top-end speed isn’t going to be the fastest, but he’s proven to be fast enough to get the job done within the collegiate game. Biggins actually compared him to Puka Nacua in a different evaluation on 247 back in 2018, which I found interesting. I was thinking more Drake London, who’s from nearby Moorpark, but that’s neither here nor there. The point is that his profile puts him in good company.
Closing
McMillan currently holds an ADP of 3.6 according to Campus2Canton. He did have an injury scare in the offseason, but by all indications it was not major and he will be good to go for the season. Brennan recently said that McMillan will be a version of full go for fall camp, which has sowed some unease amongst the CFF community, but I suspect this is more of a precaution than anything.
Assuming he’s healthy by week one, and considering the talent and the emphasis on getting him the ball, plus the familiarity with the returning QB, it is feasible that TMac ends up leading CFB in all three major receiving categories in 2024. ◾
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Sample size: 2018-2023.