Dante's Inferno: Third Time's the Charm for Kentucky Transfer RB
In the middle of the journey of our life I found myself within a dark woods where the straight way was lost.
- Dante Alighieri, Inferno (1320)
If you were to plot out the career arc of current Kentucky RB Dante Dowdell, it would most certainly not resemble a straight path. Rather, it would probably align with Dante Alighieri’s quote above, meandering around in a dark forest in search of the light.
Thankfully for him (and CFFers), I believe he may have found what he was looking for after all. Originally a class of 2023 prospect, Dowdell committed from Mississippi to play in the PNW with the Oregon Ducks. That lasted one season before a move to Nebraska in 2024. Now, I’m going to sound like a broken record, because that too lasted one season before Dowdell packed his bags and moved on to his next stop, announcing a move to Kentucky in the winter portal period at the end of 2024.
Dowdell wants to be the lead man of a backfield. You don’t make the moves he’s been making if that wasn’t the motivation. He’s also a southern boy from Mississippi so a return to SEC country also makes sense. Indeed, it has been said by wiser men than I that there is a little bit of Mississippi in every great SEC program.
And it should be noted that the type of backs we’ve seen have success lately under Mark Stoops at Kentucky has been of the larger variety. It started with Stanley “Boom” Williams, who was among the smaller bell cows under Stoops at 5’9", 200 pounds, and Benny Snell, a 5’10, 225-pound sledgehammer.
Both players ran for over 1000 yards in 2016, with Snell scoring 13 times. In 2017, Snell had full command of the backfield and he took full advantage with 1333 yards and 19 rushing scores on 262 carries. He outdid himself the following year with 1449 yards on 289 carries.
Next was 5’11, 225 pound Chris Rodriguez, who took 225 carries for 1379 yards and nine scores in 2021. And finally, there was 5’8, 220 pound Ray Davis, who anchored the offence in 2023 with over 1400 total yards and 21 scores. Are you noticing a pattern with the weights of these backs? 220 and over baby, just the way we like it in Mississippi.
People say everything is bigger in Texas, but these same people are really just exposing themselves as having never visited a gas station in Picayune, Mississippi. Fried catfish… towns of less than 5000 people… there’s a lot of good football down here bruv. This is fertile land for superstars.
It’s a state that has an underdog mentality. Sandwiched between two attention whores who hog all the glory in Louisiana and Alabama, Mississippi prospects are trained to ‘get it out the mud’, as the kids say. Anyways, let’s take a look at the staff.
Coaching & System
RB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 16.1 — OC: 17.91 (half ppr)
A lot was spoken about head coach Mark Stoops above, but his OC is no slouch as far as today’s topic is concerned. Bush Hamden’s previous three play calling seasons before this past year at Kentucky were spent at Boise State (2023) and Washington (2018-19). In all three of those seasons his RB1 had what I would call a good season (at the very least).
The lowest output among those three RBs was UW’s 2019 RB1, Salvon Ahmed, who still managed over 15 PPG. Hamden was the play caller for the Boise State team in 2023 that saw Ashton Jeanty rise to bellcow status. I think I’ve heard of him before…
Anyhoo, the 2018 data point with Myles Gaskin is probably around the sweet spot of what I’m hoping for out of Dowdell. He’s not going to be anywhere near an Ashton Jeanty style CFF asset, and frankly, I’ll be a bit (pleasantly) surprised if he’s a 20+ PPG guy in 2025, but the upper teens feel like a reasonable goal.
Below you can find the list of RBs under Stoops and Hamden dating back to 2018.
The historical track record of both coaches is good in my opinion. Last season notwithstanding, the RB1 under Stoops at Kentucky has been a reliable asset to invest in within the realm of CFF for almost a decade now. Considering that the QB position is a question mark this offseason, and that the Cats lost two of their top receivers from a year ago, I would think the ground game is going to be making a comeback in 2025.
Both coaches are aligned on their play calling tendencies, with Stoops averaging a 59% run rate, and Hamden a 57% run rate. This is a slow and methodical offence, running on average around 62 plays per game under Stoops with a low of 55 plays per game in 2023.
Kentucky returns approximately half of all the snaps played from a year ago along the offensive line, and 57% of the starting snaps (shoutout CFBWinningEdge for these stats). I wouldn’t categorize their offensive line in 2024 as a particularly dominant one, especially considering the deficiency in the run game. So overall it’s hard to say whether these returning snaps are a good thing.
Dante Dowdell (6’2, 225)
2024 RUSHING STATS: 143 - 614 -12 (11.6 PPG)2
At 6’2 inches tall, Dowdell’s physical specifications would make him the largest of any of the Stoops RB1s so far should he take the mantle this upcoming season.
The third year player outperformed his yardage and carries last year in the TD category scoring 12 times for Nebraska. Normally, I’d say this was a coincidence, but given his skill set as a bruising short-yardage back, the double digit scoring was probably more by design than anything.
His transferring to Kentucky this offseason feels like a move that is motivated by a desire for an increased role in my mind, but that’s just me speculating. The good news for him is that it’s looking likely that he’ll finally be atop of a depth chart entering next season; here’s an update out of ON3’s Kentucky coverage:
Dante Dowdell looked like Kentucky's RB1 in spring showcase
Kentucky landed Nebraska transfer Dante Dowdell this offseason and will be the third school for the former blue-chip recruit. The true junior brought 704 career rushing yards to Lexington after being a sophomore starter in the Big Ten. However, it was unsure if Dowdell would be a feature back or a member of a committee aproach.
That likely has not been determined yet but the spring showcase told us that the transfer is currently Kentucky’s RB1. The 227-pound tailback got most of the work with the first unit, scored a goal-to-go touchdown, and created some explosive plays. But Dowdell was mostly added to the team for what he can do in short-yardage.
Dante Dowdell was college football’s best short-yardage tailback last season. However, that is hard to gauge in a scrimmage where UK is not tackling to ground. Stoops said that practice results in live tackling periods have the program feeling confident in Dowdell’s ability.
“When we had a live scrimmage you were able to see it. There was segments in practice, as I mentioned, goalline or short-yardage plays when we were going live in practice. You saw it then as well. Where you’re converting those third-and-twos, where you’re getting a profile tackle and you get a tough yard or two. We saw that.”
“I’ve seen growth in the run game all spring. We did do probably a 100-play scrimmage where it was completely live and you got to see that. We got to see that. We definitely made some strides and need to continue to work on that,” Stoops explained. “You know and I know that we have to have that physicality and the ability to run the ball to set up the play actions and not be in predictable second-and-long, third-and-long, and all those things.”
Dowdell was a top-130 rated prospect according to 247 Sports’ composite ranking in the class of 2022. He finished his senior season with 2165 yards and 31 TDs on 8.4 YPC, and his total high school career with 5301 rushing yards and 65 TDs on 8.0 YPC.
Admittedly we haven’t seen the same YPC efficiency at the collegiate level—to be clear I wasn’t expecting 8+ YPC at this level but I was disappointed to see Dowdell finish five games last year with a less than four yards per carry average. Two of those games were contests where Dowdell saw 17 and 20 carries, so it wasn’t just a case of him getting limited reps.
His usage in his first two seasons suggests that he is not a great receiving back. He had zero targets as a freshman in 2023, and only eight in 12 games as a sophomore with Nebraska. Granted he did catch seven out of eight for 21 yards.
My fear with Dowdell in 2025 is that he will lack the explosiveness to be a productive every-down back for Kentucky—a team that will likely be playing against a lot of stacked boxes in the SEC.
I don’t doubt his punch near the goal line, but he needs to be more than a one-trick pony to be a strong CFF asset. We should get some early insight into this concern when Kentucky plays Ole Miss in week two. ◾
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Sample 2018-2024 excluding 2020.
Full ppr.