Hardy vs. Fluff: Battle For The SBC's Top Freshman Runner
He can block, tackle, score the TD, snap the ball, hold the snap, & kick the extra point...
He can block, tackle, score the TD, snap the ball, hold the snap, & kick the extra point. Hell, the boy will fill up the Gatorade cooler, walk the dog, & paint your back porch. The boy can flat out play football...AND HE CAN PASS!
- L.V. Miles, Friday Night Lights (2004)
I couldn’t help but remember that iconic quote from Boobie Miles’ uncle in the movie Friday Night Lights as I watched a highlight reel from one of the many gargantuan high school performances of South Alabama’s Fluff Bothwell.
As you can see via the thumbnail below, Bothwell scored a total of eight(!) TDs in that game, four of them rushing, three of them receiving, and another via the pass just for the hell of it.
Not only that, but he also moonlighted as a middle linebacker and accumulated multiple defensive stops (17). Of course, I’m not a professional talent evaluator, and don’t try to be, but I have watched a lot of high school tape over the course of my CFF career, and one thing I’ve always held true was that it’s not always about what the players are doing on tape, but rather how they look when they do it.
Bothwell, as well as the other young gentleman we’ll be talking about today, both (no pun intended) absolutely looked the part in high school of potentially dominant college runners. Here is a clip of the other runner we’ll be discussing today— ULM’s Ahmad Hardy, in high school:
Hopefully, the point has been made visually about both looking the part at that stage. Each player is built very compactly, with Bothwell listed on ON3 at 6’0, 230 pounds in high school, though Fantrax has him modestly labeled as 5’10, 220.
Those proportions are what I like to call the demon build in CFF, in part because those exact dimensions appear a lot when looking at profiles, but also because so many of the best runners for my squads over the years have carried that listed height/weight ratio.
Ironically, one of ULM head coach Bryant Vincent’s former pigs, DeWayne McBride, had that exact build at UAB a few years ago. McBride was an exceptionally productive runner, particularly in 2022. Vincent’s latest pig, Hardy, looks like the biggest player on the field in his high school highlights, though I’m fairly confident in his listed size of 5’10, 205, given there is no discrepancy between ON3 and Fantrax with his profile.
Earlier during this past college football season I declared that it was the year of the true freshman in CFF. I wasn’t alone in that declaration, as you’d have to be blind not to acknowledge the sheer volume of frosh contributors in 2024.
It’s a highly unusual development, and is as likely to be an outlier year as a trend going forward. Nonetheless, two of the marquee names headlining this movement are the aforementioned Da’Marion ‘Fluff’ Bothwell, at South Alabama, and Ahmad Hardy, at ULM. Bothwell hails from Oneanta, AL, whereas Hardy comes from Monticello, MS.
Those who may be new to the CFF game this year should know that it is very rare for true freshmen RBs to take over as the bellcow or ‘volume pig’ of their program.
The ones who have done it in the past are literal superstars in CFF/CFB. Names like Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor, and Iowa State’s Breece Hall come to mind. Hardy has definitely taken over as the RB1 for ULM, while Bothwell is more so in a time share with Bullock at South Alabama, but his usage is still notable.
If either of the two being discussed today follow the career arcs of the names mentioned above, they will be first round picks for the next two (maybe three) years in every CFF draft. So without further ado, let’s get into it.
Comparison of Infrastructure
SOUTH ALABAMA RB1 PPG AVERAGE: 13.93
Head coach Major Applewhite is the primary play caller for the Jags. He was promoted from OC, where he spent the last three years, this past offseason when Kane Wommack was hired by the Tide.
Applewhite’s RB1 average is a little misleading. In 2022 and 2023, his RB1 averaged 19 and 20 PPG in half ppr formats, respectively. It’s his 2021 and 2018 seasons that pull his average down. The OC, Rob Ezel, is in his first year of play calling and thus has no data to draw on.
Applewhite’s play calling tendencies are pretty balanced, with an average split of 52/48 in favour of the run. His offences tend to move at an above average pace, at around 24.6 seconds per play, though that average is skewed by his one year at Houston where his offence averaged 18.8 seconds per play. His South Alabama offences have been closer to 25-28 seconds per play.
In the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Applewhite’s RB1 averaged 17.4 and 16.9 carries per contest, as well as 1.75 and 2.18 receptions, respectively. Those numbers combine for just shy of 20 touches per game, which is good. On the other hand, it was the same RB in both seasons (La’Damian Webb), so it’s harder to say whether that is an actual preference, or just due to an elite player at the position. We’ve seen this play out to some degree in 2024, with two runners splitting work throughout the season between Bothwell and Kentrell Bullock.
However, for our purposes, following the hypothesis that Bothwell’s strong usage as a freshman is probably an indicator that he’s also an elite player, or at least, well above average, then he too should eventually follow the Webb usage arc with the Jaguars. Though something that should be pointed out is that there are in fact levels to this volumepig game. While Webb was a productive runner, and a back to back 1000 yard rusher in 2022/2023, he never received more than 210 carries in a season.
Some systems out there boast multiple seasons of 250+ carries for a runner. Others, such as Applewhite’s, are more modest with the good years being closer to 200-220 total touches. He’s still a play caller with ‘VolumePig’ tendencies, but just not as good as some others we’ve seen. That brings me to the next staff…
ULM RB1 PPG AVERAGE: 17.34
Like with South Alabama, ULM’s head coach Bryant Vincent is the primary play caller. Vincent’s RB1 average is noticeably higher than that of Applewhite’s, with the only year where his top runner finished with an average lower than 16 PPG coming in 2019, when his RB1 was injured early in the year.
His marquee season over the last five campaigns is his 2022 year with the aforementioned DeWayne McBride. I’ve actually compared Hardy to McBride given that they both wear #22 and actually—despite the size difference—look quite similar on the field.
McBride finished the 2022 season with over 230 carries in only 11 games, which was an average of 21.18 carries per appearance. Like Applewhite’s marquee runner, Webb, McBride was not used much as a receiver, as he averaged less than one target per game.
Vincent’s tendency on offence is very clear: this man wants to run the football. He even stated this preference out loud earlier this offseason stating that “we’re going to run the football here. If you’ve followed my career, you know that that’s what we’ve done in the past”.
Over his past five seasons, he averaged a split of approximately 61/39 in favour of the ground. Understandably, this offence can be extremely potent if the touches are concentrated to one runner, and that has been the case more often than not over the same time span. As is customary with most run-oriented teams, Vincent’s offences are typically average to below average in terms of pace, averaging around 28.5 seconds per play.
A West Alabama graduate, Vincent spent 24 consecutive years as a high school and college coach in his adopted home state before heading to New Mexico in 2023, where CFFers will recall JaCorey Merritt’s strong 19.8 PPG season.
As it turns out, Vincent has also coached at South Alabama in the past. He was first the tight ends coach and then quarterbacks coach with the Jags before heading to UAB as offensive coordinator in 2014. After the Blazers’ program was shut down (temporarily, as it turns out), Vincent returned to Mobile as the Jaguars’ offensive coordinator under Joey Jones.
Overall, to me the answer is clear: Vincent’s system is better for the RB position. However, Applewhite’s at South Alabama is good, too.
Comparison of Profiles
Fluff Bothwell (5’10, 220), South Alabama
Bothwell definitely takes the cake when it comes to high school rushing production (at least, when he was fully healthy). During his junior year he ran for over 40 TDs and 3000+ yards. Here is a copy paste from the piece I did on him back in September:
Last year as a junior, Bothwell finished with 3,112 rushing yards and 44 total touchdowns, the latter of which is one of the highest marks in a season in Alabama history. He helped Oneonta reach the AHSAA Class 4A state semifinals with a 315-yard, five-touchdown night in the quarterfinals.
His name can be found several times in the AHSAA record books for various statistical achievements and career milestones.
Bothwell is a top 100 running back nationally in the class of 2024, per the 247Sports composite rankings, currently ranked No. 90.
The three-star recruit committed to South Alabama last month, choosing the Jaguars over offers from Army, Navy, Jacksonville State and more.
Bothwell joined the South Alabama team over the summer after a career at Oneonta in which he posted often ludicrous statistics on both sides of the ball. After running for 3,112 yards and 41 touchdowns as a junior in 2022, Bothwell battled through a hip injury to rush for 2,031 yards and 32 more scores as a senior.
While Bothwell was given a three star rating, his counterpart in today’s article, Hardy, was unrated.
Ahmad Hardy (5’10, 205), ULM
Hardy finished his senior season with 220 carries for 2442 yards and 27 TDs. That bested Bothwell’s senior year, but as mentioned Fluff was dealing with a hip injury. One of the big differences between the two runners is the receiving usage. Hardy only totalled six catches in high school, whereas Bothwell had three receiving scores alone in one game.
Hardy also played some defence in high school, as is customary for many of the best athletes at that level. His best season on that front was his sophomore year, where he accumulated 10 tackles for loss on a total of 32 tackles.
Here is a clip uploaded from Hardy’s own YouTube channel of his first game highlights at ULM vs. JSU.
A thought that disturbed me as a shareholder of Hardy in CFFNate’s dynasty league was the fact that he continued to upload his game highlights onto YouTube even in college.
You may ask why that would be bothersome, to which my reply is that it signals to me that he might be looking to move up to another team at season’s end. Generally, you post highlights of high school performances in hopes to gain more traction in your recruitment. Once college comes around, there shouldn’t be a need to continue to do so, unless of course, you’re hoping to continue your recruiting process. Then again, maybe he just likes uploading his highlights, who knows.
There aren’t as many dedicated highlight videos out there for Fluff (at least on YouTube), but here’s a pretty nasty stiff arm into the end zone from his prep days. As you can see, the competition in that particular game may not have been the best.
Though to be fair he’s been doing similar stuff in college:
For those interested, here is the link to his senior highlights on HUDL, though I actually prefer the junior tape.
Year One Comparison
As far as the comparison of their college careers so far, Hardy is the superior CFF asset at the moment. Hardy has essentially been the RB1 for Vincent since game one, where he led the Warhawks with 19 carries, and hasn’t seen less than double digit carries in a game yet this season (his lowest was 10 vs. Texas).
Bothwell averages 15.6 PPG currently, with 90 carries for 626 yards and 10(!) scores in only nine games. He also has 12 receptions for 83 yards. Hardy currently averages 17.1 PPG, with a strong 164 carries in nine games, of which he has accumulated 916 yards and nine scores. He has four receptions for 54 yards. Indeed, Hardy appears well on track to meet his offseason goal of “get 1,000 rushing yards and go to a bowl game.”
If you’ve watched both players this year, you know that a key component to the appeal of both is that they bounce off tacklers. That’s generally a key indicator of a good runner. Neither appears to be a burner, or exceptionally shifty. However, both hold the requisite size to handle a heavy workload, and have demonstrated exceptional contact balance in high school and in the collegiate game. That bodes well for their futures as CFF assets in my mind.
I actually like the way Bothwell looks as a player more than Hardy, and feel that Bothwell is probably the more talented player (obviously, take this with a grain of salt as I’m not a scout). The infrastructure around Hardy makes him a better CFF asset, at least in the near future. However, as we’ve seen with the transfer portal, things can change quickly.
My personal impression from reading some details about Hardy is that he comes from a situation of great poverty, and I wonder if ULM will be able to pony up the funds to keep him around. Here is an excerpt from an interview with Hardy earlier this year:
“I grew up with mostly my mom raising four children: three boys and one girl,” Hardy said. “Watching her struggle to get us to practice, put food on the table and work hard broke her back. She did everything she could, and that motivated me to make sure she never works again.” After college, Hardy hopes to either make it to the NFL or pursue a career as a veterinarian.
All G5 stars are at risk every offseason of being plucked away to the P4, but ULM feels like a particularly vulnerable program given the lack of success, which I assume means there will be a lack of available NIL resources.
South Alabama on the other hand demonstrated the ability to keep its stars this offseason with all of Gio Lopez, Jamaal Pritchett, and Devin Voisin coming back. Though of course this is not a guarantee either that they’ll be able to hold onto Bothwell.
Closing
Overall, as someone who has both players on the same dynasty team, I am more worried about Hardy actually staying in his situation than Bothwell. If there was a guarantee that both would stay where they are for the rest of their collegiate careers, then Hardy would be my pick for the superior CFF asset.
Given the uncertainty, I do feel that Bothwell may end up being the more productive profile when it’s all said and done because he feels more likely to stay put; but beyond that he also feels more likely to translate if he were to transfer up a level.
On top of that, South Alabama is a program that is a lot easier to get info on, whereas ULM is a nightmare. Being able to get reliable info on a player at least makes one feel more confident about prognosticating their future production. This is a real factor that will limit CFFers’ valuation of Hardy in drafts in my opinion because the uncertainty will make people nervous.
In conclusion, both players look poised to have great CFB careers; let’s hope—for my dynasty team’s sake—they stay right where they are 🤞. ◾
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