JANICE STFU
VP has a new #1 overall player for 2026.
Pull up Maybach, beep-beep, baby.
- Drake, musician
Now you’re probably wondering about the title. It’s true that I am prone to occasionally choose some seemingly random titles for articles at this publication, but this is actually a reference to Tony Soprano from the HBO show “The Sopranos” telling his sister, Janice, to shut the f**k up, which also happens to be sampled in a song on Drake’s latest album “Iceman”, called… “Janice STFU”.
I’m going to assume that most have seen and/or are familiar with the Sopranos but in case you’re not, the show takes place in New Jersey, and one of the characters actually goes to nearby school Rutgers (or supposedly did) in seasons two and three.
I also wanted to write about RU star tailback Antwan “Iceman” Raymond in light of the recent events with Mizzou RB Ahmad Hardy and what it all means for my overall and RB rankings, so I guess you could say that the stars aligned for this one. Furthermore, given that Drizzy is a fellow Canadian, I felt it only appropriate to take this opportunity to feature Raymond, a product of Montreal (sacré bleu!).
In the Q1 rankings I released earlier this spring I had Raymond slotted in at RB3. I don’t want to give too much away and spoil the upcoming RB rankings (ETA June), but on further meditation, I think I’m going to have Raymond as my #1 ranked RB which means by default he’ll be my #1 overall player. That’s sort of my unwritten rule that I think I used to talk about more; just as a refresher—whoever is RB1 is player #1 for me for CFF rankings.
Obviously on pure ability there are other players who are better and Jeremiah Smith at WR is a worthy 1.01 player too, but I believe the best RB should always be valued as the best overall player for CFF rankings due to importance & scarcity of producers at the position, and due to the higher hit rate overall when it comes to RBs drafted early vs. WRs drafted early.
So why is Raymond of all players slotted at number one? Well a good place to start with these things is always the system around him. However, today I’m going to go into further detail than usual since we’re discussing a potential 1.01, which is a more involved exercise than the typical article feature.
COACHING & SYSTEM
RB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 12.2 — OC: 181 (half ppr)
The Rutgers offensive system for RB went into overdrive with the hiring of OC Kirk Ciarrocca in 2023 (see RB1 carry share pre and post 2023 in Table 1). Former RU pig Kyle Monangai carried the torch for Ciarrocca’s debut season and then again in 2024 to great success. The split in 2025 was murkier headed into the season. Former FSU/FAU runner CJ Campbell transferred into the program after a stellar 2024 campaign at the G5 level and was slated to compete with Antwan Raymond and others for starting snaps.
Week one played out that way, but Campbell suffered a season-ending injury in week two which cleared the way for Raymond’s initiation into #PIG mode. By season’s end, the Montrealer handled a total of 244 caries in 12 games (including a nasty 41 carry game in his third last appearance), along with 18 receptions.
Campbell has since transferred out of the program, and RU’s only replacement for him is Louisiana Tech transfer Clay Thevenin, who quite frankly is scaring nobody. Thus, it’s reasonable to infer that the plan will be to feature Raymond heavily once again, and potentially even more than he was last season when we consider RU’s upcoming schedule.
The Knights open the year with UMass and BC, before welcoming B1G opponent USC, and then back to an OOC opponent in Howard to round out September. The next four opponents in October are Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, and Michigan, which could certainly be worse. Michigan and IU may be tough sledding but not matchups where Raymond will be a sit, I don’t think. Wisconsin, Nebraska, PSU and MSU round out November.
Considering that in 2025 Raymond had to face Iowa, Ohio State, Minnesota, Oregon, and a much more talented PSU compared to this year’s roster, and still managed to finish with ~20 PPG, I think the arrow is probably going up in 2026 with the above mentioned slate of games.
I used to go into really fine detail about what types of programs RBs need to play at to get to the 1.01 spot. The theory was that in ‘old’ college football (i.e. three years ago) the programs that were too big (e.g., Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia) were problematic in multiple ways: players are pulled early in the many blowouts they’re involved in, and sometimes there are simply too many elite players around for individuals to standout; with the small programs you had to deal with the player potentially getting crapped on early in the year via the OOC schedule.
Thus, the optimal spot were the mid-majors, whether that be a high-end G5 program like BSU, or mid-tier places in the P4 such as Iowa State or Minnesota, these were programs that offered a comfortable balance of not too big nor too small when it came to supporting and offering the maximum opportunities for elite RB production.
CFB is a little different now, but RU in its current form does fit the mid-major criteria. Last year I settled on WF’s Demond Claiborne as RB1 but the players ranked just behind him also fit the criteria via Pitt runner Desmond Reid and Minnesota’s Darius Taylor.
Within the program there are a few things to keep in mind. Primarily, there will be a new QB throwing passes for the Knights this fall. Alabama transfer Dylan Lonergan is expected to be that guy. Second, according to dawgstats.com, RU returns only the 117th most snaps along its OL from a year ago. As I always say, this is not necessarily a guarantee that the unit will not be good. It’s more like, if there are a lot of snaps returning this is a +1 to the profile, but if it's not I’m more so neutral on that. In fact, in limited instances a high percentage of returning OL snaps can be a negative if performance was poor the year prior (e.g., OU).
As far as play calling preferences, both Schiano and Ciarrocca skew heavy towards the run historically (58 and 62% respectively). This should not be surprising. And while both play callers have historically called slower moving offences, RU’s unit in 2025 actually ranked 1st in the B1G in plays run per game and 25th overall. This was probably aided in part by having a veteran QB return and a stellar WR core, so I’m not expecting this to continue in 2026 but if it does all the better.
Antwan Raymond (5’11, 205)
2025 RUSHING STATS: 244-1241-13 (20.9 PPG)
Originally from Montreal, Raymond transferred at some point in his high school career to Clearwater Academy in Florida. In his senior year he carried the ball 233 times for 1884 yards and 22 scores and received significant ACC interest along with being recruited by Rutgers, the school he eventually committed to.
For whatever reason, he was not rated highly by recruiting services, receiving only a three star grade in both 247’s internal and composite rankings.
As far as what he’s done in college so far, Raymond had a breakout year in his sophomore campaign this past season, rushing 244 times for 1241 yards and 13 scores (~20 PPG). His receiving usage is bolstered by two games in particular (~150 of his 225 yards came against UW and PSU), so this is certainly something he could improve on and hopefully will going into 2026.
In fact, what would probably be my biggest criticism of Raymond’s profile is the lower receiving volume. Ideally the targets would be higher, but in his defence he did hit double digit receiving yards in seven of his 12 games.
In fact, Raymond reminds me a lot of a former Kirk Ciarrocca RB1 in Mo Ibrahim. In each case, ‘protean’ is not the word most apt to describe these players. Both players are not used much as receivers despite heavy workloads on the ground. Neither player’s skill set really stands out in any way in terms of raw speed or size, but both are very effective with the ball in their hands nonetheless.
I won’t pretend to know intimately all of the intricacies of Ciarrocca’s run and blocking schemes, but clearly there is a premium placed on RBs who can hit the right hole each time based on the players that have received the bulk of carries under his tutelage.
RU is also replacing its long-time starting QB and losing over 200 targets from the 2025 WR room. Presumably new names will emerge at WR to help absorb that volume but it’s also plausible—especially with this staff—that RU reconfigures its offence into a more run-heavy approach. That would probably benefit Raymond more than anyone.
While other runners have a higher ceiling and output potential, I find it hard to argue at this stage in the season that there is any RB with a more polished and clean profile headed into 2026, and therefore Raymond is who I consider the #1 overall player at current juncture.
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Sample from 2018 to 2024, excluding 2020.