Kentucky's Next Ray Davis?
Kentucky's Next Ray Davis?
VP is STOKED about this former Ohio State RB's move to the SEC
I started out mopping the floor just like you guys. But now... now I'm washing lettuce. Soon I'll be on fries; then the grill. In a year or two, I'll make assistant manager, and that's when the big bucks start rolling in.
- Maurice, Coming to America (1988)
In the 2023 offseason, I had a few objectives going into every CFF draft I participated in. One of those was to make sure that I did not leave a draft without Kentucky’s Ray (formerly Re’Mahn) Davis on my roster. That meant — despite his fourth round ADP — drafting him in the second round of most of my drafts in July and August.
In the end, I’m sure most people wouldn’t have had a problem with drafting him in the first round. Davis finished the 2023 campaign with a total of 1383 yards and 20(!) TDs. He caught 29 of his 37 targets, and averaged 17.9 touches per game. I’m going to be honest, I actually expected his touch volume to be higher, but his efficiency was so on point this season, that he ended up being highly productive anyways.
Of course, by now, we all know that Davis is moving on to the NFL (as expected). Davis had been in CFB since 2019, and had already rushed for over 1000 yards with Vanderbilt the year before; he actually cleared the total 1000 yard threshold his freshman season with Temple in 2019. Naturally, his departure leaves a huge gap for the Kentucky Wildcats offence headed into 2024.
ASU/OSU RB DeaMonte ‘Chip’ Trayanum — 5’11, 233
Enter former Arizona State and Ohio State transfer Chip Trayanum. Tray — as Davis was this time last year — is entering his fifth year as he transfers into the Kentucky Wildcats program. Also like Davis, Trayanum is a big back (see height-weight ratio above). The parallels don’t really stop there, either. Similar to Davis, Trayanum’s been a journeyman so far in his CFB career.
He began playing with Herm Edwards’ Arizona State Sun Devils in 2020. During that shortened season, his performance in the four games he played in landed him on many a CFF manager’s radar. His very first game (vs. USC), he ran 12 times for 84 yards and two scores (20.4 points). He followed that up the following week vs. UCLA with a 108 yard performance on 15 carries. In total, he finished the 2020 campaign averaging 13.6 PPG as a true freshman.
The following season he took a step back. He started the year off with a bang, netting 17.2 and 15.8 points vs. Southern Utah (FCS) and UCLA, respectively. However, after that he would only clear 10 points in a game once in his remaining seven games. He only received double digit carries in a game that season three times.
Evidently, he decided a change of scenery was in his best interest in the 2022 offseason, and transferred into the Ohio State football program. He actually converted positions to linebacker upon his arrival, but a bad run of injuries forced the Buckeyes to use him as a runner vs. Michigan. Trayanum rose to the occasion, rushing 14 times for 83 yards (5.9 ypc) and catching a pass for 14 yards (10.7 points).
This season, it appeared that Trayanum had officially been moved back to RB, and his most-involved game came against Maryland in Week Six. He carried the rock 20 times for 61 yards and a score in that contest (13.1 points). Overall, I’d say this was a pretty forgettable year for Trayanum, and with rumours of Trevyon Henderson returning in 2024, it’s no wonder Chip decided to test out the ol’ portal.
This is where Mark Stoops and the Kentucky Wildcats come in. If you’ve been paying attention to HS recruiting over the last 2-3 years, you might have noticed that UK has placed a stronger emphasis on the state of Ohio. Trayanum is originally from Ohio. He was a four star prospect out of Akron, and actually held multiple SEC offers coming out of high school—but not an offer from Kentucky, ironically. Florida and LSU were among his suiters, with Alabama kicking the tires, but not officially offering.
So, when we consider all of these facts, it is not all that surprising that Trayanum has landed in the Bluegrass state. And lucky for us, the landing spot from a CFF angle is an advantageous one. If you want more context for why that is, look no further than my write up early last year on Ray Davis himself: Link
In fact, my sources tell me that Davis offered this word of advice to Trayanum when Chip was contemplating a move to Lexington:
Hey, I started out on the bench just like you. But now... now I'm a First-Team All-VP selection. Soon I'll be at the combine; then the NFL. In a year or two, I'll be referenced in future VP articles as a shining example of CFF excellence, and that's when the big bucks start rolling in.
- Ray Davis, Coming to Kentucky: A Film by Mark Stoops (2023)
Ray Davis 2.0? Some Words of Caution…
I never like to suggest that a player will come in and be a 100% ‘like for like’ replacement of a CFF stud. In this case, there are many reasons to suggest that that will not be the case this season. The most glaring one of all is that Davis was already a CFF producer, over multiple different seasons before he even got to Kentucky. The big thing for me — and I’m a systems guy more so than player ability (surprising, I know) — was that Davis managed to produce as a RB on a vastly overwhelmed Vanderbilt team in 2022. That’s huge, and partly explains why he was so efficient at Kentucky: he’s just a very good player.
The problem with trying to evaluate player ability from my bird’s eye view is that I don’t have a formal football coaching or scouting background, nor am I present on the practice field or meeting rooms of these programs. So it is a dubious proposition to purport that I’d be able to come up with a reliable assessment of these abilities, hence why I try to weight almost all of my analyses on other factors (volume of opportunities, for ex.). So I’m not going to say definitively that Trayanum is not the player that Davis is (after all, he was actually a higher rated recruit than Davis was out of HS), but his career production up to this point certainly suggests that that might be the case.
Another glaring factor is that Chip’s receiving usage history is not nearly as attractive as Davis’. The receiving production was a key piece in Ray’s stellar campaign this season, and helped make him somewhat-matchup proof on an underperforming Kentucky team. I don’t know that Trayanum has that in his arsenal (we don’t have evidence of it to this point, at least). So that’s a question mark.
Overall, I was comfortable with drafting Ray Davis as high as the second round. I’m not going to go there with Trayanum, because there is a lot more risk here from my point of view. And the problem here, which I thought might be more pronounced last year with Davis than it turned out to be, is that the community may over-value Trayanum given what Davis did, and push the price on him higher than I want to pay.
This is not a case where I’ll go into every draft thinking: I have to get this player; the way it was with Davis. I would like to acquire Trayanum, yes, but the second round is too high. I’d say third at the absolute earliest (i.e. if there was a massive run at the position in the draft), but the fourth through sixth rounds feel much more appropriate at the current junction. My thinking is that if this one hits, Chip’s 2024 season will mirror more so that of Chris Rodriguez’ 2021 campaign (17.6 PPG) than Davis’ 24 PPG output in 2023.
Summary of the profile
Pros:
Great system with an extended track record of pig-usage at RB
Entering a massive production vacancy left behind by Davis
Big bodied back who has a similar skillset as a runner to Davis
Solid recruiting pedigree out of HS suggests talent is here
Cons:
Not a very productive player in his previous four years of CFB
Has not shown pass-catching traits that his predecessor possessed
There will be games where he is considered un-startable next season (UGA & Texas)
What remains to be seen is whether UK brings in another RB and/or what the offensive line situation looks like headed into 2024. I’ll just say it simply, I don’t know who they have returning on the line, nor what the strength of their OLine play looks like right now. That’ll be something to potentially revisit in the summer once we have some semblance of clarity on where rosters are. My guess is that they’ll figure it out.
Track the latest offensive play calling and coaching changes, as well as the latest CFF relevant transfers here:
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