Kyle Monangai Poised to be a 'SOAP' in 2024?
Kyle Monangai Poised to be a 'SOAP' in 2024?
Monangai led the B1G in rushing last season, but his production was volatile on a week-to-week basis. 2024 offers a more forgiving schedule, and may catalyze a massive spike in his value.
What you got on Friday's game? I got three bills on Rutgers.
- Detective Makazian, The Sopranos
A Severely Obese Alpha Pig or “SOAP” is a prestigious term reserved only for an elite class of RBs. The best of the best, some would say. These players are loosely defined as those who average 20+ touches, and rush for 100+ yards per game, though there exists no such documentation producing a formal definition of this term. The term itself has been passed down through generations upon generations of College Fantasy Football (CFF) wisemen all over the world. When asked what a SOAP is, the response from experienced CFF players usually follows: you’ll know one when you see it.
Current Rutgers RB1 Kyle Monangai is one of the most important players in CFF right now. I’m going to explain in detail why that is in the proceeding text, but the skinny of it is: he is at current juncture criminally undervalued by the CFF market. UCF’s RJ Harvey was a player of this mold this time last offseason; anybody who drafted Harvey in the eight+ round range knows how that one played out.
The reasons why Monangai is not being given the respect he so rightfully deserves are not entirely unreasonable, at least, on the surface. The problem is, on closer inspection, that one of the assumptions about Rutgers in 2024 is not true. Let’s circle back to that in a second.
Another problem is that a lot of people do not know that it was Monangai who paced all B1G RBs last season in rushing, despite playing for a team that had to face Penn State (PSU), Ohio State (OSU), Michigan (pre-firing Stalions), and Iowa. You can imagine that playing against the Wolverines prior to mid-October this past season would have probably been like playing against the computer in online chess set to level 100, or whatever the highest level is… “How the fuck does this AI know everything I’m trying to do?”. Or maybe more like trying to find a Russian interior decorator in the middle of Pine Barrens, NJ—suffice to say, it’s pretty fucking hard.
PSU, Iowa and OSU legitimately had great defences. Though it should be noted that Monangai still had a pretty good game vs. the Buckeyes (24 carries for 159 yards, zero scores).
Now you might refute the point above, and say: well, sure—he led the B1G in rushing, but the B1G was committee city last season, so how impressive is that, really? That’s fair, after all, Monangai’s rushing total came out to only 1262 yards, which is good, but maybe more of an indictment on the state of pig farming in the B1G than anything.
Coming back to the first point about an erroneous assumption being made about Rutgers right now. We typically assume a team like this is a no-no in CFF because of the aforementioned gauntlet of programs they have to face, and generally speaking, the Knights are not up to snuff to keep those games competitive, which in turn means their players get whacked every time they play. This makes a lot of Rutgers players unusable in CFF for large portions of the season.
However, someone — at some point — should point out that Rutgers plays none of PSU, OSU, Iowa, or Michigan in 2024. You read that right. Take it in, think about it for a moment before proceeding.
Who are they playing then? Here’s their 2024 schedule:
Aug. 31: Howard
Sept. 7: Akron
Sept. 21: at Virginia Tech
Sept. 28: Washington
Oct. 5: at Nebraska
Oct. 12: Wisconsin
Oct. 19: UCLA
Oct. 26: at USC
Nov. 9: Minnesota
Nov. 16: at Maryland
Nov. 23: Illinois
Nov. 30: at Michigan State
I don’t know about you, but I have zero respect for the run defences of the former PAC-12 teams. USC… UCLA… whatever, if you play football in the state of California, your run defence is probably not good (only half joking about this). It’s just something in the air over there—the weather’s too nice. Not enough hunger, not enough desperation (outside of San Francisco). There’s a reason CFB wisemen will tell you that every great SEC progrum has a little bit of Mississippi in them. I’m going to lump UW into that group with UCLA and USC, especially given that their roster has been gutted.
We can look at programs like Illinois and Wisconsin who are, or have been, typically stingy vs. the run. Yea, Wisconsin will probably be tough. Illinois actually wasn’t that great against RBs last season. Kansas’ Devin Neal ripped right through that defence on only 10 carries (120 rush yards, one score). So did Badgers RB Braelon Allen, who bludgeoned the Fighting Illini for 145 yards and a score on 29 carries. I could continue but the point is, it’s not a given that just because Bret Bielema is the head coach of Illinois, that they’re going to be a tough run defence to face in 2024.
You might then say, well what about Nebraska? They’ve got so many UGA castoffs that you’d think simply by osmosis they would become a better team vs. the run. However, I don’t feel compelled to circle that game either as one that has to be avoided for Monangai. Minnesota? Michigan State? Possibly, but in those cases the talent discrepancy between the programs is not enough to scare me off.
So really, when you look at it closer, I don’t see any reason to shy away from Rutgers’ Kyle Monangai due to the typical scheduling concerns. The next logical question on all of our minds is: what is the scale of pig farming on RU’s staff?
Coaching & System
Current OC of Rutgers—Kirk Ciarrocca, is a known degenerate pig farmer (KDPF). But what about his head coach— Greg Schiano? Well, Schiano’s trade is on the defensive side, so it might not really matter, but we’ll take a look at him as well.
What you need to know first about the Rutgers staff is that Ciarrocca, who I’m going to call coach KC from this point onward, has had a RB go over 1000 yards eight times out of the last ten years. There is Kyle Monangai, of course, who rushed for 1262 yards and eight scores on 242 carries (14.6 PPG) this past season. The usage is good, and the yardage is pretty good, but the reason his PPG isn’t higher is the lack of TDs, which tends to happen when you’re outclassed in at least four of the 13 games you played that season.
Last year coach KC was the OC of Minnesota, where a resurgent Mo Ibrahim — coming off a season-ending achilles injury — rushed 320 times for 1665 yards and 20 TDs (~22 PPG based on rushing stats alone). Throughout the rest of this run through I will be quoting the PPG based on rushing stats alone (unless stated otherwise), so keep in mind that the actual PPGs for some players could be much higher.
The year prior (2021), coach KC was the OC of WVU, where Leddie Brown rushed 223 times for 1065 yards and 13 TDs (~15 PPG). It’s important to note that Brown also received 36 passes for 217 yards and another score that season, raising his total average up to a much more attractive 20.6 PPG.
Keeping with the theme, in 2020 KC coached at another program. This time it was PSU. That was a weird season and the Lions didn’t have any RBs standout from the backfield.
Back to Minnesota in 2019, KC’s lead pig—Rodney Smith, rushed 228 times for 1163 yards and eight scores (12.6 PPG). In 2018 it was Mo Ibrahim once again leading the Gophers in rushing with 202 carries for 1160 yards and nine scores (around 13 PPG). In 2017, coach KC’s Gophers failed to produce a 1000-yard rusher, but they were close with Rod Smith once again pacing the club in rushing with 977 yards and three scores (~9.6 PPG). He cleared 1000 yards total with 107 receiving yards. Again, each of the PPG averages quoted here are based on rushing stats alone.
Western Michigan (WMU) is where things were pretty consistency wild for KC. In 2016, Jarvion Franklin ran 248 times for 1353 yards and scored 12 TDs. He also caught 25 passes for 288 yards and two scores. That’s a total PPG average of 19.5 PPG over 14 games played that year. The RB2— Jamauri Bogan, ran it 179 times for 923 yards and eight scores.
Franklin and Bogan continued to pace the Broncos in rushing in 2015 and 2014:
I must say, it does my heart good to see RBs getting over 300 carries again as we look back through KC’s history. Of note, this is actually his second stint with the RU program, as he coached with Schiano in 2009 and 2010 as the co-OC of the Scarlet Knights.
As for Schiano, outside of this season, he hadn’t had a 1000-yard rusher since re-joining Rutgers in 2020. He was on the defensive staff at OSU from 2016 to 2018, so I won’t give him credit for any rushing success or lack there of there.
His first stint at Rutgers (2001-2011) is notable. In 2007, Ray Rice rushed for a pig-gasmic 380 times for 2012 yards and 24 TDs. Again, isolating on rushing production only, he would have averaged around 26.55 PPG over 13 games.
The year prior was similar, with Rice rushing 335 times for 1794 yards and 20 scores. And the year before was… you guessed it… similar with Rice rushing 195 times for 1120 yards and five scores as a true freshman, though he did share more work with RB2— Brian Leonard, who rushed 173 times for 740 yards and 11 scores.
So the ingredients here are good, and it seems like we can check the ‘pig farmers on staff’ box off with Monangai. That’s a pretty key ingredient typically for future SOAPs, so that bodes well for his chances in 2024. RU also returns ~76% of snaps on the OL from 2023.
Kyle Monangai — 5’9, 210
As mentioned briefly, Kyle Monangai led the B1G in rushing yardage in 2023 with 1262 yards in 13 games. Pretty impressive stuff considering the slate of defences the Knights had to run through.
Indeed, it was tough sledding against UM, PSU, Wisconsin, and Iowa, in particular. In each of those games, Monangai scored less than seven points. In every other game, he scored at least 10.9, and went over 15 points six times out of the remaining nine appearances. Simply put, his value in 2023 was restricted to being a plug and play guy in your line up.
The nice thing was, we generally knew ahead of time when it was time to sit him, so really, no complaints here (I have him in a dynasty league, was quite pleased having a share of his).
He capped the year off with a nice performance vs. Miami in the Bowl Game, rushing 25 times for 168 yards and a score (26 points). He also caught two passes for 17 yards. In total, he finished the year with 242 carries, which is an average of 18.61 per game. Add in the receiving work and his touch volume clears 19 per game, so he was already teetering on the edge of the first SOAP condition in 2023.
This upcoming season will be the fourth year in CFB for the former three star out of Don Bosco Prep, a powerhouse high school in New Jersey. A lot of good RBs have come out of the Garden State in the last few decades, and I take that as a good omen for the future for Monangai. But as always, it’s not all sunshines and rainbows here:
Summary of Concerns:
Plays with run-heavy QB who will steal red zone TDs
Isn’t used much as a receiver
Some young Jackie Aprile Jrs are nipping at his heels: Samuel Brown (63 carries for 200+ yards) & Ja’Shon Benjamin (45 carries for 172 yards) in 2023.
Closing
The value in a player like this is that they are undervalued by the market place. If they start to get drafted higher and higher, the premium we get reduces. We’re talking about a potential SOAP here in the year of 2024, so you could justify paying a fairly high price to acquire him, but wouldn’t it be better for all of our sakes if we just kept this one as a secret between us?
He didn’t even get drafted in a nine round mock draft I participated in with other CFF industry experts. How does that happen? You might say. Well, I tried to draft him in (I think) the fifth round, but couldn’t because there was a restriction on the number of backs you could take (which I didn’t realize until attempting that pick). The set-up of that draft was very specific though, and not necessarily indicative of what to expect in a typical 16+ round draft.
One of the players I mentioned at the top of the article was the 2023 version of RJ Harvey, who I wrote about last offseason. He was a player who you could generally acquire in the 8+ round range, and he ended up averaging over 20 PPG in 2023, which is great. We want to do something similar here with Monangai, and the alpha opportunity only exists as long as we don’t push the ADP too high in advance.
So the next time it comes up in conversation, and someone (perhaps a league competitor) mentions that they’re scared off Rutgers players, specifically—Kyle Monangai, you just nod along and say “yea, I hear you—fuck that, right? I don’t even have him on my draft board.”
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