Maryland's Forgotten Workhorse Going Nuclear in 2024?
Do not forget about Roman Hemby this summer.
You know who had an arc? Noah.
- Salvatore "Big Pussy" Bonpensiero, The Sopranos
I love the TV show The Sopranos. I’ve probably watched it front to back at least three times now. Towards the end of season one, Chris, a young new recruit in Tony’s crew, seeks counsel from one of the veterans Salvatore "Big Pussy" Bonpensiero, about his ominous feelings that someone they killed is coming back to haunt them. Emil Kolar is the name of the man they murdered, and he does, indeed, haunt Chris from beyond the grave throughout the show.
I had a similar conversation with one of the VP interns this offseason about a certain ‘dead asset’ in CFF. He told me he kept having recurring nightmares of this Maryland player running roughshod over the B1G this year.
(intern) “I feel like he’s trying to tell me something… that we fucked up the night we buried him in the last group of our Q2 rankings.”
“That happens… the more rankings you do, the better you’ll sleep. I had one prick chasing me for months in my dreams last year.”
(intern) “What did we do wrong that night? We looked at everything… returning OL snaps, prior production, staff tendencies, other names in the room…”
At first I dismissed his warnings as shaky nerves from a first time CFF analyst. “He probably just feels guilty ranking a player low” I told myself. But then I took another look…
Maryland RB Roman Hemby broke out in 2022 as a true sophomore, with 1187 total yards (298 receiving), which tracked to a 17.5 PPG average in 1ppr formats. A down year in 2023 (still averaged 14 PPG) seems to have placed Hemby in the category of ‘damaged goods’ in the minds of CFF players this offseason.
But consider this: the RB2 last year by carries (Antwain Littleton) transferred out, and the next leading carrier (Taulia Tagovailoa) ran out of eligibility. Here’s a snippet from a Maryland beat report post-spring game:
The redshirt junior running back (Hemby) is expected to take on a workhorse role this season after running mate Antwain Littleton transferred to Temple. Hemby ran for 680 yards on 4.8 yards per carry, a regression from his 2022 campaign (989 yards on 5.3 per carry. But the running back looked strong on Saturday. He caught multiple passes out of the backfield, including a touchdown on an angle route that was wide open.
Hemby said he models his game after New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara, citing the veteran's pass protection and ability to catch the ball. The highlight of his 2023 season was a 61-yard reception against Auburn in the Music City Bowl game. His focus is on slipping more tackles this season. A second or third-level defender brought him down often last year, which he's focused on improving.
And here’s another update this offseason:
With Taulia Tagovailoa graduating, Edgewood-native Roman Hemby, one of the best running backs in the Big Ten, takes center stage. Hemby, a redshirt junior, sounds ready to take on the role of team leader.
Maryland enjoyed the now rarest of commodities in college football, a four-year starter at quarterback. He gave the Terps an identity. Now, he's gone, and now, the best player on offense is No. 24.
"I saw it today. I saw a lot of explosive stuff in the back end, where, maybe a couple of years ago, he wasn't making that safety miss," said Terps head coach Mike Locksley, who enters his sixth season with Maryland. "I saw him really develop and he's added tremendous, tremendous value to our team."
Hemby already has 20 career touchdowns, and he has excelled in big games, possessing the magnetism to lead.
"I kind of take on more of a role as a tone-setter," Hemby told 11 Sports. "Just to have something for these guys to fall back on, however you need it in the season. I take a lot of pride in that, just to be that guy to rely on throughout the season."
Considering that Hemby currently holds an ADP (according to Campus2Canton) of 174 (approx. the 14th round in 12-team leagues), I’d say the CFF community might be overreacting to a down year last year when it comes to his valuation. Again, we are talking about a player who returns as one of the most productive runners in the B1G this season. But first, let’s take a closer look at the staff.
Coaching & System
RB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 13.3 — OC1: 13.6 — OC2: 14.21 (half ppr)
Maryland’s staff is somewhat unique in that they have three coaches involved in play calling duties: head coach Mike Locksley, OC1 Josh Gattis, and OC2 Kevin Sumlin. Of the three coaches, Sumlin is the best when it comes to RB1 carry volume (see Table 1. below).
Sumlin’s numbers are bolstered from his time with the Arizona Wildcats in 2018 and 2019. JJ Taylor accumulated 1000 yards total under Sumlin in the 2019 season, which was a hefty step down from his 1560 total yards the year prior in 2018. During that 2018 season, Taylor was given 255 carries, and received 16 passes. During Sumlin’s six seasons at A&M (2012-2017), his Aggies had three 1000-yard rushers (including QB Johnny Manziel in 2012).
Gattis’ time at Miami in 2022 yielded a committee in the backfield, but he did hold the title of OC at Michigan in 2021 when Hassan Haskins ran for 1327 yards on 270 carries. Freshman runner Zach Charbonnet briefly reached #VolumePig status during the 2019 season, but the aggregate numbers are that of a committee as well with Haskins. In Gattis’ one year as co-OC at Alabama, Damien Harris was the lead rusher with 150 carries for 876 yards.
The OC of that 2018 Alabama team—Locksley, also spent one year as the co-OC in 2017, a year when Harris hit 1000 rushing yards on the dot on only 135 carries. That stat line is more of an anomaly than anything. Locksley was also the OC of Maryland between 2012 and 2015, however none of these seasons yielded a notable runner. Looking at Locksley’s time as head coach of Maryland (2019-present), the patterns are similar. They have yet to produce a 1000-yard rusher, but Hemby, as mentioned, had a very strong year in 2022, and a solid year in 2023.
Maryland returns 21.7% of the OL snaps from a year ago. That may or may not be a bad thing as the Terrapins were bottom third in the FBS in rushing yards per game last year as a team. They were above average in terms of pace of play calling last year checking in at 36th in the FBS with 24.8 seconds per play. The three average under Locksley is 26.4.
Roman Hemby (6’2, 202)
2023 STATS: 142-680-4 (13.9 PPG)
One of the big things with Hemby’s profile is his receiving usage. In his best season to-date (2022), Hemby was targeted 39 times in 13 games (average of around three targets per game). He added approximately another 300 yards to his rushing total that year via the air. The following season, despite his overall numbers declining, his receiving volume increased with 48 targets, adding on another 350 yards to his rushing total. He scored three times via the air last year, bringing his total yards and scores up to 1029 and seven. That’s two straight years of over 1000 yards production.
Considering that the Terrapins will be working in a new starting QB this year (whether that be MJ Morris or Billy Edwards), there could be an emphasis on quick dump offs to the TEs and RBs. That would be good news for Hemby, but regardless of that, we know Maryland’s staff likes to use him in the passing game and that he is an able pass catcher.
Throughout Hemby’s tenure he has been an efficient runner for the Terrapins, averaging 5.3 and 4.8 yards per carry in his two feature seasons. So efficiency isn’t really the question—clearly Hemby is a good player in the B1G—the crucial question will be on the input end of the equation.
Hemby was a three star recruit coming out of nearby Bel Air, Maryland in the class of 2021.
While Littleton departed the roster this offseason, last year’s RB2 by yardage Colby McDonald does still return. McDonald saw about a third of the carry volume Hemby did last year with 53 carries for 306 yards and two scores, but he was just annoying enough to be a factor in the backfield.
This year the Terrapins have another runner who is making waves in the offseason as a true sophomore (Nolan Ray) who could be involved this year too. A three-man rotation would fit the MO of Locksley’s Maryland tenure so far. But then again, if Hemby can get back to his 2022 form, then you’re still looking at a potential 15-18 PPG asset at RB.
Closing
Hemby’s 14th round ADP makes him an attractive buy for me at present moment. The storyline that we’re looking for here is not that unprecedented in CFF when you consider recent examples such as Georgia State’s staff leaning on Marcus Carroll out of the blue last year despite historical usage patterns tending more towards a committee.
We can also look at a similar program in the B1G East with Rutgers, who leaned on Monangai last year, facilitating their first bellcow under head coach Greg Schiano since he arrived in 2020 for his second stint with the program. In that case I’d posit that it was the new OC’s influence (plus an elite runner breaking out with his opportunities) that brought forth the emphasis on consolidating touches through one player.
In this case, we have a similar pattern with a lame duck head coach (as it relates to the RB position) with an OC (Kevin Sumlin, and to a certain extent Josh Gattis) who have a stronger history of touch concentration, combined with an above average runner on the roster. The formula could produce something similar to what we saw at Rutgers and Georgia State last year, or it could be another mild rotation as we’ve become accustomed to with the Terrapins.
But, even in 2022 when he averaged over 17 PPG Hemby only carried the rock 188 times, and the next leading rusher carried it 76 times. One of the benefits with pass-catching RBs like Hemby is that it’s not necessarily imperative that they get 200+ carries to be productive, because the difference in carry volume can be outsourced to the receiving game.
This is a team with a lot of turnover at QB, TE and WR. The one constant is the running game, and that unit is led by #24. For that reason, I strongly recommend that the reader consider taking a shot on Hemby as a later round RB to round out your RB group in drafts in either bestball or standard formats.
The last thing to note is that the Terrapins enjoy a phenomenal schedule up until November. They open the year with UConn, Michigan State, UVA, Villanova, Indiana, Northwestern and USC before going to Minnesota on October 26th. Then they have their second BYE and embark on a hellacious slate that includes Oregon, Iowa and Penn State with little old Rutgers sandwiched in between. Most of those Rutgers defenders never had the makings of varsity athletes, so that matchup should be fine, the other three will probably be weeks where Hemby and the running game are largely nullified.
With all that being said, this is a player who could come back to haunt you come October if you forget about him in your drafts. He’ll be a riser in my final CFF rankings in August. ◾
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