My God, a Freshman
My God, a Freshman
Sire Gaines has shades of a Braelon Allen storyline; and he might be the next Ashton Jeanty for the Broncos in the (not so distant) future.
Today is your day! Your mountain is waiting, So… get on your way!
- Dr. Seuss, author
There are not many college football programs that wouldn’t trade their backfields for Boise State’s right now. Obviously, the 2024 iteration of this unit is headlined by CFB superstar Ashton Jeanty. We all know about him. Beyond that, however, the future remains very bright.
Jambres ‘Breezy’ Dubar is the next one up listed on the depth chart—you may or may not have heard of him already—but at the third position is a pleasant surprise. True freshman and converted linebacker Sire Gaines has had himself an enormous spring camp, most notably headlined by his performance in the spring game. Here’s an excerpt from that recap in April:
Boise State fans got their first look at the talented freshman Saturday in Boise State’s annual spring game, and they didn’t have to wait very long to see what he’s capable of.
Gaines’ first carry of the game went for 27 yards. He finished with 45 yards on five carries, averaging 9 yards per carry. He also caught three passes for 18 yards.
Gaines still has some work to do to wrestle the No. 2 running back job away from sophomore Jambres Dubar, who finished the spring game with just five yards on six carries but scored on a 1-yard touchdown run.
Cool, cool—nine yards per carry is impressive. I wonder what the head coach, Spencer Danielson, had to say about it? Conveniently, some of his comments can be found here:
“No one is going to outwork him because his success means more to him than anybody else,” Danielson said. “He’s very developed physically as a 17-year-old. That’s a product of how hard he works.”
What about the OC, Dirk Koetter, what did he have to say?
“For a 17-year-old, wow, he’s off to a great start,” Koetter told reporters on Tuesday. “He’s very impressive, not only when it comes to running the ball and yards after contact, but he’s physical in pass protection.”
Additionally—in case this isn’t getting steamy enough for you—here are some additional quotes from BSU beat writers:
Koetter knows a special ball carrier when he sees one, and he said Boise State has another up-and-coming star in freshman running back Sire Gaines.
Gaines graduated high school a semester early and has been on campus at Boise State since January. The power he possesses in his chiseled 208-pound frame, his top-end speed and explosive cuts, and his workmanlike mentality have stood out since he arrived . . . Gaines has done enough to prove to coaches that he’s ready for a role on offense [this season], Danielson said.
Jesus Christ. Danielson, buddy, I’m just trying to have a quiet evening; now my partner is asking me if it’s my cellphone poking out of my shorts as I stare at the computer… 👍👍👍
But surely, with all the names ahead of him, this kid is going to be buried on the depth chart for ages, right? Maybe. Certainly he’ll be splitting work with Jeanty and Dubar this year. In the current age of CFB, who the hell knows what’s in store a year from now. Jeanty himself was almost tempted away this offseason.
Either way it would appear that the gravy train has left the station and I don’t think anybody’s going to stop it. Gaines is eventually going to be a primary ball carrier in this offence, whether that happens this year (unlikely), next year (somewhat likely) or in 2026 (the expectation). There should be value here both from a CFF and DEVY/C2C perspective.
Sire Gaines (6’0, 208)
Gaines was recruited to BSU as a three star linebacker prospect out of California. He was actually a flip from Arizona State, which you don’t often see (P4s flipping to G5s). Similar to former Wisconsin Badger, Braelon Allen—who was also a LB recruit out of high school—Gaines was almost immediately converted to RB upon his arrival on campus. And when I say he was a LB recruit, I mean he was listed as an ATH on 247 Sports, and as a LB on ON3.
However, his high school stats suggest that he was tearing it up on the offensive side of the ball well before Boise State. Here is a snippet from his Bronco team bio:
Registered 2,079 all-purpose yards his senior year (2023) at Orange Vista High School with 1,685 yards and 27 touchdowns on 175 carries, including a long rush of 81 yards, as he averaged 9.6 yards per carry and 129.6 yards per game while posting eight separate 100-plus-yard rushing performances … Also caught 16 passes for 351 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 21.9 yards per catch.
Defensively, he totalled 30 tackles (15 solo, 15 assisted) with 7.0 tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks, one interception returned for 11 yards and two fumble recoveries returned for 45 yards
Interestingly, on a recent video with BSU beat writers one of them suggested that it is “not a forgone conclusion of RB2 right now”, implying that Dubar—which he clarifies is the leader to take on that role—might not necessarily be penciled into that spot yet. The relevant discussion is around minute 24:00. The video also includes more comments from Danielson re:Gaines (25:45).
These guys are under the impression that all three of these players are going to have a role in the offence regardless. I suppose that makes sense if BSU is running the ball every play (might be bad news for the Malachi Nelson crowd out there though).
They also mention that returning RB Tyler Crowe is listed as more of a fullback now, in case you were wondering where he was in all of this.
Coaching & System
This is somewhat of a unique article because I would be surprised if the head coach and offensive coordinator are the same by the year 2026 when Gaines is expected to take over lead duties. Thus, the patterns of this staff may not be so relevant for forecasting future production of the player being highlighted today.
However, I still think it’s valuable to go over the tendencies and historical track records of the staff here—most notably because BSU actually has a history of utilizing multiple runners while keeping both productive enough to be strong assets in CFF (a phenomenon that is relevant for our purposes).
Unfortunately, the offensive play calling experience in CFB of this staff is almost entirely nonexistent, so I cannot use the typical tables/model numbers that you might have become accustomed to when reading my latest articles. Here’s what the table looks like:
Nope, for this one we’re going to have to go old school here *rolls up sleeves*.
Danielson, the head coach, is in his first full year in this role. His background is on the defensive side (was DC/co-DC at BSU 2019-2023 before being promoted).
Dirk Koetter, the OC, was not in coaching last year. However, his last role was actually as BSU’s interim OC in 2022, so he should be familiar with his old office at least. That year, BSU utilized two runners primarily. Holani led the way with 221 carries, while an auspicious young man at the time by the name of Jeanty followed behind with 156.
His two years with the Falcons of the NFL (2019-2020) were complete committees, with the leading runner hovering between 600-700 yards. Ditto for his three years with Tampa Bay (2016-2018). And—shockingly—it was the same deal in his first stint in Atlanta (2012-2014). Well, at least we know he likes to use multiple runners. I suppose from that perspective it’s good news for Gaines.
BSU was a slow team last year averaging 27.9 seconds per play, which ranked 102nd in the FBS. The last year when Koetter was the OC (2022), they were even slower, averaging 32 seconds per play. That is not all that surprising given how heavy of a run team they were/typically are (was a 59/41 run/pass split in 2022 under Koetter). They return approximately half of the snaps from a year ago on the offensive line. I would assume the plan will be similar in 2024.
Closing
I was shocked to see that Gaines had no ADP data in both C2C and DEVY right now according to Campus2Canton. I am an optimistic person by nature and believe in giving everyone the benefit of the doubt, but I simply cannot stand by and watch this injustice happen any longer.
I think Gaines is a no brainer to acquire in any long-time horizon format. He could even be CFF relevant in year one. ◾
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