New Mexico: An Interesting Buy Low High Reward Opportunity

New Mexico hasn't exactly been a stable of CFF value in... well, forever. But two new coaches joined the program this offseason that you'll want to know about.

Jan 08, 2024

They don’t see me coming.

- Al Pacino, The Devil’s Advocate (1997)

New Coaches Bring Elite Track Record To New Mexico

Former UVA HC Bronco Mendenhall was hired as the new Lobos CEO late in the year of 2023. He is replacing Bryant Vincent, who took the ULM job at the conclusion of the 2023 campaign. Mendenhall last coached in the 2021 season with the Cavaliers (2016-2021), prior to that he coached for over a decade at BYU (2005-2015).

Most importantly, and I want readers to pay attention closely to this next part: Mendenhall is bringing his QB ace— Jason Beck, with him. Beck will take on OC duties for the Lobos next season.

Beck was promoted to OC at Syracuse this past season, after serving one year (2022) as the QBs coach. He was with Mendenhall at UVA during the entire stint (2016-2021), and for three seasons at BYU (2013-2015). And yes, because this is a sicko style newsletter, I also got his track record when Beck was the OC at Canadian university Simon Fraser in 2012, but let’s start with the numbers from his most recent stop, and we’ll conclude with the earlier stuff.

Mendenhall is actually a defensive coach, and most of his experience is with Beck on the offensive side, so it’s more fitting to run through Beck’s numbers.

This past season at Syracuse was a disappointment. While Shrader dealt with injuries for most of the year, the production when he did play was not good enough. He finished multiple games scoring less than 10 points. Again, I know he was injured in many of these games. To start the season, Shrader scored 30, 27, 50, and 25 points in his first four games. He would only score more than 25 points again once all season vs. Wake Forest.

His 2022 numbers were better, but there was still some inconsistency. He finished the year averaging about 23 PPG, which is not good enough. However, he was very good in several weeks. He scored 25 or more points six times out of 13 games, and scored more than 30 four times. One thing that I should point because it will become an apparent pattern later on as we go through the numbers: Shrader was used constantly as a runner under Beck. In 2023, he ran 113 times in 11 games, and in 2022 he ran 150 times in 12 games. He scored eight and nine rushing TDs, respectively.

Prior to Syracuse, Beck was part of that infamous 2021 UVA squad. The OC was Robert Anae, who is now with NC State, but Mendenhall and Beck were the HC and QB coach. Brennan Armstrong finished in the top three of QBs that year, accounting for a total of 40 TDs (31 passing, 9 rushing), and over 4700 total yards to 10 INTs. He attempted an absurd 500 passes in only 11 games (averaged 45 per game). He finished the year scoring 37 PPG, which is pretty filthy. Side note: he was only a mid round draft pick in CFF drafts— just a word to the wise out there.

Armstrong averaged a strong 26 PPG the year prior during the COVID season. With Beck as his QBs coach, the lefty gunslinger accounted for over 2300 yards and 27 total TDs (nine rushing) to 11 INTs.

The 2019 season had Bryce Perkins suit up as starter for the Cavaliers. Perkins accounted for over 4300 yards (700+ rushing) and 33 TDs (11 rushing) to 12 INTs. Assuming a 12 game season, Perkins would have averaged around 28-29 PPG.

The 2018 season was a similar one from a numbers perspective for Perkins. I would say that this was also a successful season for the QB:

Again, the rushing upside is obvious. However, the previous season, starting UVA QB— Kurt Benkart, finished with negative rushing yardage, suggesting he was more of a pocket QB. Benkart scored 25 TDs in 2017, all of them were passing. This was not a good season from a College Fantasy Football (CFF) perspective. The 2016 season was more of the same for Benkart.

The trend of pocket passing QBs really seemed to start at BYU in the years immediately prior to Beck and Mendenhall joining UVA. The 2014 and 2015 seasons had a QB finish negative yardage, and a fairly forgettable stat line.

The 2013 season was a pretty epic CFF one, though. Taysom Hill basically became an RB1 who also throws passes, finishing with 246 carries for 1344 yards and 10 scores on the ground. He almost passed for 3000 yards on top of that. His passing left some to be desired, finishing with a 19 to 14 INT ratio.

Now, onto the 2012 season where Beck served as the OC at Simon Fraser, which is a Canadian university in British Columbia (west coast). There are some notable stat lines in all three phases of offence.

In 11 games, his leading passer finished completing 294 passes on 472 attempts for 3262 yards and 28 scores to 13 INTs. The RB1— Bo Palmer, finished carrying the rock 185 times for 1053 yards and 15 scores, plus caught 31 passes for 315 receiving yards and a score. The WR1— Lemar Durant, caught 91 passes for 1318 yards and 17 scores.

Numbers like those in one season explain why Beck was a sought after acquisition by Mendenhall at BYU. I don’t want to give all the credit to Beck, however, as there were some strong performers at QB under Mendenhall before Beck arrived. Max Hall had a strong stretch in the late 2000s.

Personnel

OK, so we’ve spent a considerable amount of time on the C&S part of this equation. My takeaway is that there could be value here at QB, with an outside shot of a CFF producer at WR. I feel less intrigued about the RB position.

As far as I know, senior QB Dylan Hopkins is moving on. He averaged about 14 PPG this past season, with limited rushing upside. I would hope for someone else in this spot. I would keep an eye on who wins the starting QB position.

At WR, again, not sure who returns and who doesn’t, but slot receiver Jeremiah Nixon (5’11, 167) is intriguing. He averaged 10.7 PPG in 1PPR formats in 2023, and is entering his sixth season (technically seventh but didn’t play in 2020). He still has one year of eligibility, as he only played in one game in both 2021 and 2022. His first five seasons were with FCS program Alabama State, before transferring to New Mexico in 2023. He caught 39 of 61 targets for 482 yards and five scores for the Lobos.

I know I only covered QBs by the numbers in the above section, but there have been several strong WRs under Beck/Mendenhall. The 2021 UVA squad in particular had multiple receiving targets that were CFF producers. Excluding the COVID year, the Cavaliers had a 1000-yard receiver in three straight seasons (2018-2021).

At RB, I will say that the system under Beck and Mendenhall is not great for this position. As a duo, their teams produced two 1000-yard RBs between 2013 and now. One in 2017 with UVA, and Jamaal Williams with BYU in 2013. Mendenhall had a few when he was solo at BYU in the 2000s.

Closing

New Mexico will be a program I re-visit at some point down the line. It’s too early to know who might be relevant. What do I think is possible? I don’t foresee any elite assets coming through the Lobos in 2024. But, I think there is a good chance that there will be some value at QB/WR.

If you’re playing in a non-standard CFF league, one that is deeper, I would advise keeping the Lobos in mind for some late round gems. In Bestball, the QB here, depending on who that is, might prove to be a good dart throw too. Personally, I think a player like Nixon would be one I’d add immediately to the shortlist for a late gem if he is indeed suiting up for the Lobos next season.