Not Your Average Lemon
Timothée Chalamet wears lemon shoes at Cannes. Get a hashtag campaign. Something that isn't "cool" or "tight" or "awesome," no, it's "lemon."
- Roderick Usher, Fall of House Usher
This might be the year that fictional character Roderick Usher finally sees his hypothetical scenario become a reality; because rising junior Makai Lemon looks like he’s trending towards going viral as a primary receiver in USC’s offence.
WR Zachariah Branch and TE Deuce Robinson not only left the program this offseason, but they leave a substantial gap of slot targets behind them (123, to be exact). That’s welcome news for our friend Mr. Lemon because that’s where he’ll be predominantly operating from. His wingman, Jakobi Lane, will continue to hold down the fort out wide, and as usual new names will emerge too.
However, I really like the recipe brewing here for Lemon with returning QB Jayden Maiava, HC Lincoln Riley calling plays once more, and an immediate need to replace a lot of snaps in the slot. I know it’s been a little while since there was a true alpha Riley receiver (probably not since CeeDee Lamb in 2019), but both Lemon and Lane were able to feast as a duo towards the end of last season, and I think we could be seeing a lot more of that in 2025.
In fact, one doesn’t have to look far to find another Riley alpha receiver who did damage in the slot. Lamb was lined up all over the place at OU, and one of those spots was in the slot. Of course, he also did a lot of damage from the boundary too (turns out Lamb was pretty good at football).
Coaching & System
WR1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 14.4 — OC: NA (half ppr)
Lincoln Riley decided to promote from within to fill the vacant OC role this offseason. QBs coach Luke Huard was the lucky candidate to receive the upgrade in title, but don’t fool yourself, Riley is still calling this offence.
As far as the patterns under Riley, his WR1 generally averages double digit points per game. One of the disadvantages of measuring WR hierarchies by targets is that you end up with some outlier cases like we have with the 2024 USC team, where there were two WRs who averaged over 12 PPG in PPR formats (Lemon & Lane), but Branch technically led the team in targets at 79, and only averaged around nine PPG. That’s what you see reflected in the table below. I’d disregard the 2024 entry.
The 2019 and 2018 OU teams are CeeDee Lamb, 2022 USC is Jordan Addison and 2023 USC is Tahj Washington. We can see from the ‘roles’ column that Riley is fairly agnostic about which WR dominates target share in his offence.
Luke Huard, the new OC, is not an experienced play caller. He was last OC at Sacramento State from 2017-2018 and Georgia State between 2013 and 2016. Two out of the four seasons at Georgia State yielded a 1000-yard receiver, which is nice.
Since he has no recent play calling his numbers are not included in my database. His influence is of minimal relevance in my opinion, as again I suspect Riley will be the primary play caller.
One thing of note about the data in Table 1. is that Riley’s WR1s do not see massive target share, even in good years. Lamb saw the highest at 25% and 24%, which are good but not great. His target data reflects this as he averaged only seven and eight targets per contest.
I use the word ‘only’ there because those are not the target numbers you’d expect when you see Lamb averaging nearly 20 points a game (in half ppr formats mind you). In a general sense those are good target numbers, but they are not proportional to the output we saw from Lamb.
This is a function of the fact that Lamb was truly an elite player at OU. You can confirm this for yourselves by watching his highlights (you’ll see him scoring a lot of long TDs where he breaks several tackles).
So if you’re looking for a potential nuclear option that averages 20 or more PPG in CFF drafts this offseason, it’s unlikely that you’ll find your man in this USC program, especially given that there are going to be two receivers serving as the primary targets. However, there’s enough to reason to believe that there might be two good to really good CFF options here.
It may surprise readers to know that Riley’s play calling balance on average is a 50/50 split. However, his play calling splits since he’s been at USC are much more tilted towards passing. In chronological order they are: 52/48, 56/44, and 60/40 all in favour of the pass.
Indeed, I did not realize how run heavy his OU teams were with Heisman QBs Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts in 2018 (43/57) and 2019 (40/60), respectively, which balances his five year average out.
Regardless of where his play calling leans, his teams move at around an average FBS pace between 25-26 seconds per play, which usually results in 65-70 plays per game.
Makai Lemon (5’11, 190)
2024 STATS: 52 (72) - 764 - 3 (12.33 PPG)
It was truly a story out of a Hollywood script when Lemon, the former high four star out of Cali, committed to Lincoln Riley and his USC program. His high school QB was five star USC commit Malachi Nelson at Los Alamitos High, and, if you can believe it this same high school sported fellow four star receiver DeAndre Moore in his junior season.
What’s more, all three of Nelson, Lemon and Moore were originally committed to Riley when he was at OU. Evidently, Linc was able to retain two out of the three, the other ironically defecting to Texas, after his departure to USC.
Lemon, in his true sophomore season, finished 2024 particularly strong. Over his last six games of the year, he scored 15 or more points four times, including three 20+ point performances. One of those 20 pointers coming against Notre Dame, the other two vs. RU and UW.
I knew it wasn’t my mind playing tricks on me when I recalled Lemon being recruited as a defensive player when I looked up his profile on 247. Here’s what Gabe Brooks had to say about him in high school:
Requisite size for receiver or defensive back with a lean, athletic build that can add some more mass. Dynamic playmaker at the high school level with outstanding junior year production at receiver and cornerback. Also provides a dangerous return game option.
Excels in the short area with terrific lateral twitch and explosion, which fosters separation, whether at the line of scrimmage or the top of the route. For the same reasons is dangerous as a run-after-catch threat. Also uses suddenness to close on the catch point as a defender.
Elite body control in his routes and when the ball is in the air. Football IQ combines with functional athleticism to provide great feel for tempo as a route runner. Smoothly accelerates and decelerates with unique combination of fluidity and twitch. Shows advanced nuance in route subtleties and after-the-catch creativity. Ball production on defense reflects ball skills enhanced by extensive offensive snaps.
Layered on-field context provides a good athletic foundation along with some encouraging testing numbers. However, no track and field or multi-sport context. Can probably squeeze some more juice out of the top end of what is good field speed. Signs point to playing receiver in the long run, but could his ceiling be higher at corner? Regardless, one of the nation's top two-way prospects in the 2023 class with long-term NFL Draft early-round potential on either side of the ball.
Closing
In a year with incredible turnover at the WR position, Lemon stands out as an exciting option for the more risk averse CFF drafters. He may not end up being a top-10 CFF receiver when it’s all said and done, but he does strike me as a fairly safe option to at least be serviceable in most formats.
USC plays at Oregon, Iowa, Michigan and at Notre Dame in 2025, which are four games that stand out as potential hazards for USC’s skill players. Other potential landmines include at Nebraska and at Illinois. On the other hand, who knows how good those defences will be a year in advance. A lot of things change from one season to the next, and many of those programs are losing key pieces to the NFL this offseason.
It’s often the case that when I write an article on a player whose value varies by format, that player is a better bestball asset compared to standard. In this case, I believe it is the opposite. I actually think Lemon is a better option for leagues where you choose your starters.
The reason being is that I don’t see the path to huge upside. However, I do view him as a fairly safe option to at least be solid, with a lean towards being ‘very good’ for CFF. I think 15 PPG in PPR formats is achievable and is probably near the upper bound of his upside.
What I like the most about Lemon is that his production is not TD-dependent. He only scored three TDs last year, and yet recorded double digit CFF points eight times, including the aforementioned four 15+ point performances. Assuming that continues into 2025 (and progresses further), that’ll make him a nice asset to have when you’re choosing starters each week. ◾
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VP how do you see the devy outlook for Lemon? Slot-only at the next level maybe?