Pony Express 2.0: A New(ish) College Football Super Power?
There were schools giving out hundreds of thousands of dollars and winning three games. That’s the definition of a loser. At least SMU bought players who could play.
- Norm Hitzges, radio host
This was written in May of 2024 and was lost in the vault. I’m publishing it for your amusement only (maybe you’ll find enjoyment in retrospect of how bad my takes are). Happy Thanksgiving to the American readers!
It is the year 2024, and lost in the shuffle of big boy conference realignments, unlimited transfer portal magic and NIL madness is a former CFB powerhouse that has been extended a lifeline. SMU—once one of the more revered football programs in America—has officially joined the ACC as of this year.
The Ponies are infamously known as the program that received the death penalty in the 80s after being found to have committed multiple recruiting violations— namely, paying players for signatures. Of course, nowadays this is completely fine (actually, technically it isn’t, but nobody’s going to do anything about it, so it might as well be).
You might ask: well, the 80s were (regrettably) a long time ago, does SMU really have the infrastructure to make a comeback? Surely, the fans have all but dispersed by now, right? Not so. In fact, it was recently announced that Pony had already broken its season ticket sales record ahead of the ACC move, with sales up 50% compared to the end of 2023, and on pace to double its season ticket sales.
Located in the heart of the Dallas metro, the geography of the program couldn’t be much better. Sure, they have to compete with a lot of other in-state programs for local players (many of which have coffers of funds just like SMU), but there are a lot of talented football players in the state of Texas every year. Enough to go around, at least. To give you some context, UGA—the program that is considered to be the best in CFB at the moment—has an endowment of around US$1.8B. SMU has around $2B.
Besides money, one of the key ingredients to every program’s ascent into football greatness is enthusiasm. If the 80s were any indication SMU’s alumni base has this box covered. It may interest the reader to know that as of writing this article (early-May), SMU is currently 13th in 247 Sports’ team recruiting rankings. And I know, I know, as any recruiting veteran knows, the rankings at this point in the year are all but meaningless. But it’s a good start, no?
Since NIL went live in summer 2021, SMU has finished 49, 41, and 54th in the recruiting rankings. In the three cycles leading up to that summer, SMU finished 46, 61, and 64. So, not really much of a change pre and post NIL. And, as mentioned, it’s early days on the 2025 cycle, so we’ll see where they ultimately finish.
Machinations of ACC dominance are cool and all, but what we really want to know is: will there be any pigs this season?
Coaching & System
Rhett Lashlee was the man tasked with taking over the SMU program in 2022, after he had spent a two year stint with the Ponies as the OC (2018-19), and Miami (2020-21). Before his first rodeo with SMU, he was the OC of UConn (2017), Auburn (2013-16), and Arkansas State (2012). He also spent one season as the OC of FCS program Stamford in 2011.
His assistants— Rob Likens and Casey Woods each hold the title of OC. Likens has been with Lashlee since 2020 as WRs coach. Before that he was the OC of Arizona State (2018-19), and Kansas (2015-16). He’s been the co-OC, WRs coach and associate head coach with SMU since 2022.
Woods has been the OC since 2022 as well. He also holds the title of TEs coach. Prior to joining Lashlee, Woods was the TEs coach at Missouri (2020-21) and UAB (2017-19).
Below is a summary of the historical CFF output (six point passing TD, half PPR) of each position. You can ignore the projections as usual.
There are notable pigs at every position in Lashlee’s track record. Tyler Van Dyke was a very good QB while at Miami in 2021. Jaylan Knighton momentarily reached volume pig status with the Hurricanes as well. Xavier Jones was one of the top rushers in CFB in 2019 with 1276 yards rushing and 25 total scores.
However, of the offensive positions WR is probably the most notable. Charleston Rambo went over 1000 yards under Lashlee at Miami. So did Rashee Rice with SMU in 2022, and James Proche in 2019 and 2018.
In terms of team pace, the Mustangs ranked 30th last year with 24.4 seconds per play, which was consistent with the pace in years previous.
One of the things that stands out the most about Lashlee is that he appears to run a very flexible offence. His recent patterns suggest that the value is at WR, however, in his four years at Auburn, he had zero 1000-yard receivers, but he had a runner breach that mark every single season with the Tigers, including 1800+ yard rusher Tre Mason in 2013.
TE has also been a strong suit at time under Lashlee. OG CFF players will remember Kyle Granson, whose final year under Lashlee saw him 700 yards receiving and nine scores on 43 receptions. In 2020, Miami’s Brevin Jordan was second on the team in receiving with 576 yards and seven scores.
Fun fact: in 2019 I picked up a then-unknown commodity named Kyle Pitts during the second half of the season off of the waiver wire; Pitts finished the year well for me, so when 2020 came around I told myself that I’d just draft Pitts at TE. Lo and behold on the day of the draft, I changed my mind last minute and picked Jordan. Yikes. He still had a solid year but it was nothing like KP. Maybe the key takeaway is to trust your first instinct in your drafts.
Coming back to the topic at hand, looking at Likens’ background, his time at Arizona State yielded exceptional results at both RB and WR (music to our ears). Eno Benjamin not only popped off every time he played against my squads but he joined the 300 carry club in 2018, rushing for 1642 yards and 16 scores, and then followed that up with a 253 carry season yielding 1083 yards and 10 scores.
Do you know why his 2019 output wilted compared to his 2018 season? Some nobody named Jayden Daniels (who I also picked up off waivers that year for free) started to eat into the carry distribution. I’ve always wondered what became of him. He seemed like he had a lot of potential.
And how about these two names: Brandon Aiyuk and N’Keal Harry. Each went over 1000 yards under Likens. If you can believe it, Aiyuk was another one I picked up off of waivers in 2019. I watched the Sun Devils one week when my opponent had Benjamin, liked what I saw and figured I should invest in the Sun Devils offence myself.
The overall takeaway I’m getting from this staff’s track record is that they’ll bend the offence to fit the personnel. It’s not necessarily a staff where one position is valuable, but rather a group that will feature elite players wherever they have them. Table 1. above will suggest that Lashlee’s WRs are a position to target, but keep in mind that that is only pulling from a recent sample of 2018-23 data. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the current personnel.
Personnel
SMU has the benefit of returning a veteran roster as they embark on their inaugural season in the ACC. Another year of familiarity between the QB and WRs should prove useful, and the RB room is stocked with former four and five star cast offs. According to CFBWinningEdge’s database, SMU returns approximately 54% of OL snaps from a year ago.
QB Preston Stone — ADP: 123.3
Stone is the quintessential SMU player. A former four star out of high school, the Dallas product committed to the Ponies in 2020, joining the 2021 class. He waited his turn patiently for two seasons before taking over the reigns last fall. Overall, I’d say his season was just OK, as he finished with a PPG average of just over 22 in four point passing TD formats.
He began spring on the injury list but has since been cleared for practice, which is good. While I think he’ll be improved in year two as the starter, the competition will also be tougher playing in the ACC. His current ADP of about the 10th round feels fine to me, though I feel like there are other options in that range that I like more.
RB Jaylon Knighton — ADP: 325.6
I rostered Knighton back in his Miami days and I am generally a fan of his. However, with the other names in the room (former four star LJ Johnson and former five star Camar Wheaton), I struggle to see another Eno Benjamin popping up here. Knighton’s problem at Miami in 2021 (at least when I was watching) was running between the tackles. He’s good in space and a nice receiver as well. His ADP feels appropriate to me given that he’s a long shot.
WRs
There are a lot of names that will be familiar to you in the WR room, but there isn’t one guy that stands out. The main five as I see it are: KeyShawn Smith, Romello Brinson, Jake Bailey, Jordan Hudson (the only with an ADP currently— 306.3), and my boy Roderick Daniels, who I feel like I’ve been holding my breath on for several seasons now.
You know, I can see why SMU always wants to recruit Duncanville High players— they have the same colour scheme! Of course, the proximity probably doesn’t hurt either.
I’ve told this story before, but it probably bears repeating: I first saw Daniels when he was with Duncanville many years ago. I had opened up a YouTube video to see what the fuss was all about regarding a so-called wonder kid playing at Southlake Carroll (some 10th grade punk named ‘Quinn Ewers’) just to come away from the video wondering “who is #13 in blue?”. Yes, well, while I still wait for Daniels to finally blossom in the collegiate game, we can take a preliminary look at the other names in the room.
All four of Brinson, Hudson, Smith and Bailey started their careers elsewhere (Rice for Bailey, TCU for Hudson, and Miami for Brinson and Smith). Hudson is formally a top-100 rated recruit in the 2022 cycle, but failed to get on the field at TCU. He subsequently swapped colours and headed cross town to SMU, and had an OK season, nabbing 30 passes for 425 yards and seven scores.
In fact, all four of these WRs’ numbers were pretty much identical. That is to say: it was a forgettable year for the Lashlee WR1 (who we still don’t even know who that is).
Will 2024 be any different? I struggle to see why. I’m guessing it’ll be another year of spreading targets.
TE RJ Maryland — ADP: 142.7
RJ Maryland was a beneficiary of the lack of an alpha WR last season. As far as TE production is concerned, he had a fruitful campaign in 2023. Maryland caught 34 of his 55 targets for 518 yards and seven scores (9.1 PPG). He’s the best SMU CFF profile of the names currently on the roster in my opinion.
Closing
SMU is one of the few programs that have three BYE weeks this year, which is not ideal. However, as far as ACC schedules go, their draw isn’t too bad. They do play Florida State and Louisville, who were good a year ago, but who knows how good either of them will be in 2024.
From a CFF perspective, I don't see myself drafting any of the WRs or RBs at this current time. The TE, Maryland, is probably going to be the highest scoring CFF player outside of the QB and his ADP of around the 12th round feels about right to me. Overall, I’m more in wait-and-see mode with the Mustangs in their new conference. ◾