Son of Montezuma: It's Time for the World to Meet SDSU's Lucky Number Seven
A Man sat alone, drenched deep in sadness. And all the animals drew near to him and said, "We do not like to see you so sad. Ask us for whatever you wish and you shall have it."
The Man said, "I want to have good sight." The vulture replied, "You shall have mine." The Man said, "I want to be strong." The jaguar said, "You shall be strong like me." Then the Man said, "I long to know the secrets of the earth." The serpent replied, "I will show them to you." And so it went with all the animals. And when the Man had all the gifts that they could give, he left.
Then the owl said to the other animals, "Now the Man knows much, he'll be able to do many things. Suddenly I am afraid." The deer said, "The Man has all that he needs. Now his sadness will stop."
But the owl replied, "No. I saw a hole in the Man, deep like a hunger he will never fill. It is what makes him sad and what makes him want. He will go on taking and taking, until one day the World will say, 'I am no more and I have nothing left to give.
- Old Story Teller, Apocolypto (2006)1
There’s something that just feels off in the world when San Diego State doesn’t have a bellcow running back. This is a program with a storied history at the tailback position, to say the least. We only need to go back to the early '90s, when Louisiana’s very own Marshall Faulk led the Aztecs in battle (setting multiple school offensive records along the way).
He even led the Aztecs to a tie with USC, and finished as a finalist for the Heisman award across multiple seasons (a difficult task for non-P4 players).
The 2000s were something of a lost decade in this context save for Larry Ned’s 2001 season, but there was no better program (save for maybe Wisconsin) in the 2010s for RB production under the direction of former SDSU head coach Rocky Long.
Ronnie Hillman kicked things off in 2010 and 2011 with 1532 yards and 17 scores on 262 carries, and 1711 yards and 19 scores on 311 carries, respectively. Adam Muema carried the torch in 2012 and 2013 with back to back 1200+ yard/15+ score seasons on over 220 carries each.
However, it was in the mid-2010s when this program soared to a different stratosphere. Program legend Donnel Pumphrey took 276 carries for 1876 yards and 20 rushing scores in 2014, which, if you can believe it, was not his best season with the Aztecs. 330 touches later in 2015 and Pumphrey accumulated another 2000 total yards and 19 scores, and then followed that up with… are you ready for this… 376 touches, accumulating over 2300 total yards and another 17 scores in 2016.
The RB2 behind him that year? Another demon: Rashaad Penny, who himself took 135 carries for 1005 yards and 11 scores. If that doesn’t raise the hairs on your ass then I don’t know what will. That’s some UB Lance Leipold ish.
When it was Penny’s time to take over in 2017, he took 289 carries for a mouth watering 2248 rushing yards and a total of 25 scores.
But then, things changed. The following season (2019), did not feature a 1000-yard rusher. Ditto for the shortened COVID year, but Greg Bell did prove to be a productive player when SDSU was playing. He carried that momentum into 2021 for 1091 yards on 245 carries, but it was a far cry from the production we had become accustomed to from the Aztec RB1.
This wasn’t a coincidence. Long-time Aztec head coach Rocky Long left the club after 2019, and Brady Hoke took over starting in 2020.
A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within.
- W. Durant
The years that followed can only be described as… depressing. Forget 1000-yard rushers, these guys failed to field even 500-yard rushers some years. Time went on. History became legend. Legend became myth. And some things that should not have been forgotten were lost… (cue Weathertop by Howard Shore).
However, on June 10th of this year, in a supplemental dynasty draft, I selected San Diego State RB Lucky Sutton. At the time, there were very few updates beyond him being the starter in the spring game. I thought, why not?
After all, this kid looked incredible in high school. I actually tweeted that day that if this were the only game you had seen of Sutton in high school, you’d have bet everything you owned on him being a CFF Greek God by now:
And speaking of Greek Gods, Sutton is built like one. At 6’1, 210, he has very broad shoulders and definitely fits the all-state ‘first off the bus’ team. That’s always a good thing in my mind.
Eventually as the offseason went on, more and more quotes out of camp began surfacing for those who cared to look (picture Gandalf as he’s searching the archives for lore about the One Ring of Power—basically me this offseason trying to find good info).
In particular, his head coach, Lewis, mentioned something I found interesting about Sutton’s number change:
“He was consistently good, not occasionally great,” Lewis said. “He asked one time and he made it known that that number was meaningful to him and he never said boo about it again. He trusted and believed that we were going to reward him when he earned it. That just shows the humility and the hunger that he has had ever since we took over.
“The kid just works and works and works. For him, and every single one of these guys, their opportunity is going to come. I don’t know when it is. Everybody always talks about ‘when it’s my time.’ You better be prepared when your time comes. You better be prepared when your opportunity comes.
“He’s really taken to the coaching,” Lewis said. “He’s really embraced who he is in his style of running, playing behind his pads and playing with better pad level.
“Not really doing too much in the hole, but embracing being a one-cut guy. He’s got the long speed that he showed (Monday in practice) where he goes out and rips off an 80-yard run.
“It’s kind of fun as a play caller when you give a guy the ball like that, you’re one and done and you’ve got six points on the board. … It’s pretty clear who is the lead guy in that backfield.”
The RBs coach seems to be doing his best with spinning a message that will keep everyone happy, mentioning both the words ‘committee’ and ‘lead back getting 15-20 carries a game’ in the same sentence:
“We’re going to be running back by committee, starting off with Lucky,” said SDSU running backs coach Darian Hagan, who could see the lead back getting 15 to 20 carries a game. “Lucky is a big, rugged guy. He’s smart. He’s intense. He’s detailed with everything that he does.
“He runs behind his pads. He’s a guy when I first got here (last year), he ran a little upright. Now he knows how to run behind his pads, which is important for a big guy. He’s a load.”
Which actually brings me to a slightly unrelated but I think important point that I’ve noticed this offseason. There seems to be a mismatch these days between what beat writers/coaches mean when they say “committee” and what we’re all interpreting/looking for in the CFF world.
I understand that most beat writers are not going to go out of their way in the offseason to predict that only one player is going to absorb literally all of the touches, but they seem to be under the impression that a backfield where a runner doesn’t get 100% of the carries means it’ll be by committee.
To that end, almost every interview I’ve seen this offseason on the G5 Hive (a great resource for information) has resulted in the writer suggesting that the team will run a committee (and I get the impression that what they mean is there will be multiple runners who see carries—which, yes, of course—but not necessarily that there won’t be a lead guy).
However, that wasn’t really the case (though still somewhat the case) when San Diego State’s writers were interviewed. Both raved about Lucky Sutton in the backfield and declared him as their picks for the breakout player on offence, but once again, they still mentioned there being a “committee”.
It’s a frustrating existence being a CFF player, isn’t it? These guys speak in riddles at times but we do our best nonetheless. Using my own intuition (which dare I say, may be the single greatest source of CFF insight on planet earth currently) nothing about this situation screams committee to me.
In fact, this situation signals that there is a massively undervalued commodity in that backfield currently. Sutton didn’t even have an ADP according to Fantrax until I started drafting him in both Nate Marchese’s Dynasty league and in my Golden Pig Invitational draft (and he still doesn’t have one on Campus2Canton), but now he seems to be going as a later round selection since that G5 Hive interview.
Of course, I also highlighted Sutton as a late round RB option when I appeared on Jared’s Chasing the Natty Podcast back in July.
The omen was foretold, and now we have a fear more grave. Today I saw the day become like night. I saw a man run with the jaguar.
- Snake Ink
Unfortunately, CFFers who did not heed the advice may be facing a fear more grave than they originally thought. In a year that is so dire in terms of mid and late round RB options in CFF drafts, those who manage to find them successfully will be victorious in the fall.
And now, it would appear that the price for Lucky #7 is only going up. Now—who’s to say where you should draft him? It’ll be hard to know because his ADP data is one (or more) steps behind where people value him.
Ultimately, the quotes are very encouraging, but what makes this situation so intriguing from a CFF standpoint is the system.
Coaching & System
RB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 14.92 (half ppr)
There’s something nice and clean about only one offensive coach being responsible for the offence. There’s no confusion about who’s really calling the plays, the percentage of influence of each coach, etc. etc. No, here we have Sean Lewis as the head coach, and it’s his system and preferences manifested through the shape of the offence.
Lewis has an intriguing history at the tailback position. When he was the head coach at Kent State (2018-2022), he had a workhorse in Marquez Cooper every year, and a player whom he leaned on before injury in 2018, Justin Rankin.
Prior to his time in the MAC, Lewis was the OC at Syracuse (2016-17). Both of his seasons spent there yielded terrible results from the RB1. However, when he was in the MAC in 2015 with Bowling Green, Travis Carlton Greene took 223 carries for 1,299 yards and 15 scores.
The point being, Lewis has somewhat of an enigmatic track record on offence. Last year, he had, once again, his old workhorse in Marquez Cooper, who reunited with Lewis after a year away at Ball State. Cooper has since moved on.
One of the things about Lewis’ system to note is that the RBs rarely get used in the receiving game. At least, that was the case for Marquez Cooper (and Sutton was not targeted even once in his 11 appearances so far).
You can observe in Table 1. that a good year typically sees the RB1 targeted once per game, with the sole exception over the last six seasons being at Colorado where it’s reasonable to assume Lewis may not have had full creative control.
Though it should be noted that I did see Sutton run routes downfield and catch long passes in some of his high school games. Doing it in college is a different animal, but it’s possible this ability may be more utilized compared to his predecessor.
Beyond the rushing production stats, Lewis’ play calling since 2018 averages 55% run plays called, and 21 seconds per play (usually results in high 60s to 70s in plays per game). SDSU returns just over half of the starting snaps from a year ago along the offensive line and was described as a strength of the team in the G5 Hive interview.
Lewis’ New Marquez Cooper?
As mentioned, the 5’7 wunderkind from the MAC was Lewis’ preferred weapon of choice in the run game for the better part of the last half decade. Cooper’s eligibility eventually expired and now, Lewis must find his next workhorse (if he lands on one at all).
SDSU brought in a few transfers this offseason to help offset the loss of their former RB1, namely Christian Washington from Coastal Carolina and Bryson Cardwell from Cal.
However, it is Lucky Sutton (a former C2C favorite) who was the starting tailback for the Aztecs in their spring showcase and looks set to be the RB1 for 2025.
Sutton was a standout producer in California as a high school player and has the requisite frame to handle a heavy workload in college. Yet, his injury history tells a different story. Through three seasons of college, he has appeared in only 11 games thus far. Not great.
And it should be noted that Cardwell was a spring transfer, so he wouldn’t have been competing with Sutton for lead duties in the spring game. However, the quotes from the head coach and RBs coach on August 6th are pretty emphatic: the plan is for Sutton to be the guy this season.
What actually happens once the season starts is anybody’s guess of course, especially for a player with a long injury track record.
As I mentioned in my RBs rankings: when you select this player, just know that he’s probably going to be here for a good time, not a long time. If he makes it through the season, all the better. Don’t let the fear of injury keep you away from a potential late round gem. ◾
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I know, I know, Mayans != Aztecs, but close enough.
Sample from 2018-2024, excluding 2020.