The CFB Degenerate's Newsletter: CFP Week
Look at them. Half of these bastards, they're not even pure bloods. I tell you what, why don't we just fuckin' kill everyone? Just to make sure.
- Priest, Blade II (2002)
Hello pigs, welcome back. A few weeks ago, the final CFP rankings for 2024 were released by the committee. Unsurprisingly, these rankings generated a healthy amount of discussion on X and other socials. In fact, inquisitive minds are still wondering how all of the major media outlets got their mock CFP rankings wrong while one of the little guys called it 12/12 on the morning of…
It’s an incredible thing in CFB when there is a unanimous agreement about something, and we received such a miracle that Sunday. It only took one iteration of the expanded playoff for the CFB hive mind to come to the collective realization that auto seeds are not necessary. In fact, I’ll even go as far as to say auto seeds are the root of all evil as far as I’m concerned.
Once the dust settled from the rankings reveal, and people got bored with dunking on Alabama, CFB fans collectively looked at Oregon’s path compared to PSU’s path, a team that just lost to Oregon, and thought: something is wrong here.
There’s an insinuation that SMU and Boise State don’t really belong with the other CFP elites baked in there. I suppose it remains to be seen whether that’s true or not. To be fair, PSU as a program has shown over and over again that they don’t really belong with the elites of CFB, either. Meanwhile, on Oregon’s side of the bracket you have Tennessee, Ohio State, and Texas, three teams that at least have the collective talent to win it all on paper.
It’s so typical CFB that they wouldn’t just introduce an expanded playoff, they had to do it with a bunch of other rules involved too, like auto bids/auto seeds. Sound familiar? Unlimited transfers approved at the same time when NIL collectives are being born? Sure! Why the hell not. The sport loves charging headfirst into change, which is odd, considering it is and has been the greatest sport on earth. If people would just stop fucking with it, life would be good. Anyways, I’m starting to sound like an angry old man, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we see some changes to the auto seeding rule sooner rather than later.
The problem is that conference championship games are in a weird spot right now with the 12-team playoff. If you don’t get an auto-seed for winning your conference, then often times at least one of the conference championship participants won’t have anything to gain in playing that game. That’s obviously a problem.
The easy answer I suppose is to just scrap the conference championship games altogether, but they bring in a lot of revenue for conferences, so that’s probably not going to happen. There are rumours that the conference championship games could be transformed into something else, like the #3 and #4 seeds playing for a birth into the CFP. Somehow, it actually makes more sense than the current construction.
First Round Matchups
SMU vs. PSU is the least interesting of the first four matches in my opinion. The Ponies losing to Clemson in the ACC championship game meant that they went through the entire season without beating a ranked (not a CFP ranked, just top-25 ranked) team, and were rewarded with a playoff birth! That’s almost as lucky as PSU, whose annual resume routinely reads as “lost by X amount of points to top-10 ranked Y team”.
I like PSU to win it by double digits. SMU doesn’t have the talent to go four rounds with PSU and the body blows in the run game will pay dividends in the second half for the Lions.
Texas vs. Clemson is a more interesting round one matchup because at least the Tigers have a contingency of four and five star players that could lineup for Texas as well.
Texas’ offensive line gets a lot of praise, but I don’t know why. They got manhandled twice when they played UGA, and they haven’t been able to run the football effectively for much of the year. There are enough future NFLers on Clemson’s defensive front seven such that they could theoretically hold Texas to a low point total also, assuming they are strong enough to recreate something resembling what UGA did at the point of attack (admittedly, a big if).
I believe this matchup will present the most talented set of WRs Texas’ secondary will have faced thus far this season. The problem is that most of those players are still underdeveloped. Bryant Wesco has come on throughout the season, but he’s still early in his development curve. As is fellow C/O 2024 standout TJ Moore. Give me Texas in the end. Clemson’s upset chances hinge on whether they can make Texas one dimensional by stopping the run game; I’m not sure if they can.
My initial read of the Hoosiers/Irish game was a lean towards a Notre Dame victory. However, the more I’ve been thinking about it, I do think it’ll be a close contest either way, and I’m coming around to the idea that IU ekes it out.
ND is poor vs. the run, and IU was able to run the ball effectively throughout the season. ND’s secondary is their strength on defence, but IU has the QB whisperer as its head coach, and also has the skill players to threaten the Irish.
Defensively, it’s hard to say how IU will handle ND’s talent. We saw IU get deleted by OSU, who was the only team more talented than them that they played this year (maybe Michigan, but their QB is so poor it almost doesn’t matter). While ND is more talented than IU, they’re not as talented as OSU. In particular, the passing component of ND’s offence is not on the same level of OSU’s.
I would expect IU to lean into the ground game more than usual in this one, unless they find themselves in an early deficit like 14-0 in the second quarter. Give me the Hoosiers in a Friday night thriller.
By the way, fun fact: IU and ND haven’t played each other since 1991! How did that happen?
The best matchup by far is Tennessee vs. Ohio State. Of course, it would be my luck that I scheduled a trio back home to see my parents for the holidays, and that they would have scheduled a dinner with family friends that Saturday evening (FML). I suppose it’s nothing a few prolonged trips to the bathroom with my phone can’t solve, but I would have liked to enjoy this one in full glory the way God intended—fireside with a bucket of chicken and a beverage of my choosing.
Evidently, life isn’t fair and we don’t all realize our dreams. Speaking of dreams, it’ll be a nightmare in Columbus if Ryan Day fails to beat Tennessee this weekend. His AD insists that Day’s job security is safe and sound, but Buckeye fans have been clamouring for a replacement since the second loss to Michigan.
And, unfortunately for the Buckeyes, I don’t think this is a great matchup for them. Their defensive stats are bolstered by beating a bunch of glorified midwestern high school programs, but when they play a team that can actually run the football, those teams have found success (e.g., Oregon, Iowa, Michigan). Tennessee is an elite rushing team behind an elite runner in Dylan Sampson.
On the other side of the ball, Tennessee has the front seven to recreate a lot of what UM did to OSU a few weeks ago. In particular, they can make OSU one dimensional by stuffing the run.
Another bit of unfortunate news for B1G Stans is that the forecast suggest only a low percentage chance of snow at the moment, and the temperature looks to be fairly tepid in Columbus on Saturday. At least, it’s not going to be much colder than it would be in Tennessee if the game were played there. So, you likely won’t be seeing an SEC team in the snow this weekend (unless something changes at the last minute).
OSU is also not really a B1G team, as a large portion of the starters come from southern states anyway, and their advantage is in the air vs. on the ground. A cold, windy, snowy game could actually favour Tennessee (which, by the way, players from the south play in the cold all the time, it’s called the NFL).
On the other hand, OSU will be charged up to get the taste out of their mouths from that spanking unranked Michigan delivered to them. The last time they lost to UM and still made the playoffs, CJ Stroud played the best game of his collegiate career. Might we see something similar this weekend? Give me the Buckeyes in a close last possession game.
Too Big to… Fail? The SEC is Not Happy
“Half of these bastards aren’t even pure bloods” A disgruntled Kirby Smart says to his longtime assistant, Glenn Schumann. Both are sequestered off to the side of the hallway, observing the hoopla of the SEC championship game media day from a distanced position. It’s supposed to be a jovial time—the holidays are just around the corner; and the game itself is a celebration of success. And it would be if not for the fact that the two teams had already played in the regular season, with one having a significantly harder road to get to the championship game than the other.
A fully trench-coated Kirby puts out his cigarette, and re-enters a boardroom buried in the bowls of the Mercedes Benz stadium. There he finds the head of the SEC, Greg Sankey, along with the other coaches and ADs of the remaining conference participants.
An animated Steven Sarkisian dominates the room, mid-shout, directed towards Greg Sankey.
“Maybe it's time we forgot about discretion. We should be ruling the other P4 conferences, not running around making back ally treaties with them! For fucks sake, these programs signed as many five stars as OU and Auburn combined.”
Sankey’s ringtone alarms—he’s a busy man after all—“New Order, Confusion”, as he points to his phone, “I have to take this”.
The dynamic of the room shifts abruptly as Kirby fires off a shot directed towards the Texas group in the room
“We were born in the SEC, as was every other original member of this house. But you Sark... you were merely turned.”
Sankey walks back in the room at a timely moment, waving his wands to both Kirby and Sark “Now now, I’m not going to have another Saban vs. Jimbo saga on my hands. It’s embarrassing and unbecoming of an SEC gentleman”.
Kirby fires back “How’s this for unbecoming you pussy—why are we playing six games vs. CFP/bubble teams before the fucking thing even starts? Meanwhile these wankers from the ACC haven’t a ranked win to their name.”
Alabama’s AD echoes the sentiment, threatening to cancel their future home-and-home series with Mercer if something isn’t fixed soon. USCjr. head coach Shane Beamer nods in agreement. Sankey rolls his eyes while the OU AD reminds everyone in the room that the Sooners are a member of the SEC now…
Florida head coach Billy Napier joins the fray “Look fellas, it’s a tough draw when you have a rough schedule, but look at us, we made the most of it. I salvaged my job, we won some big games… you just have to believe in the power of positivity and a freshman wonder kid at QB”. Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin’s gaze shoots daggers into Napier.
There’s a lot of shouting, some more derogatory remarks towards the B1G and ACC, and in the end, each of the participants agrees to adjourn until the next meeting. After all, this is a complex problem that will take some unpacking to find a solution.
One thing is abundantly clear to all involved, though, and that is that conference scheduling within CFB is extremely unbalanced. That’s not all that surprising given the size of these new super conferences. The fact that it has been as surprising to the powers that be is what is most alarming to me.
I figured when conference realignment was announced a few years ago that everyone implicitly understood that there are going to be bloodbaths in these new super conferences every year, and that there will be some extremely unbalanced schedules within these conferences.
Thankfully, the VP interns and I have come up with a solution to the SEC’s woes, we call it ‘regional conferences’. In effect, there’d be one conference for the pacific teams, one for the Atlantic, one for the midwest, southwest, and south east. We believe five conference would achieve the desired result of even conference parity and talent, making the current construction of the playoff make sense. Can you imagine how great college football would be if it was structured that way?
Also, let me just take this moment to throw in a #GoDawgs and say, how about them boys beating down UTjr. twice in the same season?? With a backup QB??? LFG.
Coaching Carousel & Transfer Portal News
Coaching updates to make note of:
UCLA hired IU OC/QBs coach Tino Sunseri as OC
UNC hired former NFL coach Bill Belichick as HC
New Mexico hired Idaho head coach Jason Eck as HC
Oklahoma State hired TCU inside receivers coach Doug Meachem as OC
Southern Miss hired Marshall head coach Charles Huff as HC
Southern Miss hired former Utah State head coach Blake Anderson as OC
UNLV hired former Florida head coach Dan Mullen as HC
WVU hired Jacksonville State head coach Rich Rodriguez
Michigan hired UNC OC Chip Lindsey as OC
Cal hired former Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin as OC
Purdue hired UNLV head coach Bary Odom as HC
UCF hired former Nebraska head coach Scott Frost as HC
FIU hired Duke RBs coach Willie Simmons as HC
Wisconsin hired Kansas OC Jeff Grimes as OC
Utah State hired New Mexico head coach Bronco Mendenhall as HC
Utah hired New Mexico OC Jason Beck as OC
Kennesaw State hired Mississippi College head coach Mike Kershaw
Kennesaw State hired Tennessee QB analyst Mitch Militello
Charlotte hired Ohio head coach Tim Albin
Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson is stepping down
Transfer portal news to make note of (entries with an arrow to a team have committed to that program):
UNT QB Chandler Morris → UVA
Troy WR Devonte Ross
OU QB Jackson Arnold → Auburn
Miami WR Isaiah Horton
Miami QB Reese Poffenberger → UNT
Missouri RB Kewan Lacy → Miss
SDSU QB Danny O’Neil → Wisconsin