There I stood. By the fireā¦ medieval Celtic hymns in the backgroundāI felt like I was in f***ing Excaliburāhot coco in my hand.
āThis is great.ā I uttered to myself. āHappy holidays to meā.
I had intended to upload this article last week prior to the round two CFP games, but unfortunately came down with the flu for a few days which rendered me incapacitated. I thought it was only appropriate to finish 2025 off with another ailmentāit was very fitting for my year.
But the other day, having now fully recovered, I returned from a skate on Ottawaās Rideau Canal, and decided to enjoy some time by the fire. In the background was music, this time some sort of medieval sounding hymn, which I enjoyed. It fit the vibe in that moment. It was already dark outside and the lights were off all around me.
I donāt know what happened in Costa Rica a few weeks ago, but since my return, I have weeded off any medications I started taking to induce sleep. I have a whole bag full of benzos that I got in my last prescription that I havenāt even opened. And itās been over a week since I took a sleeping pill. I am not noticing that I hear noises these days (was told this would be a permanent problem). Either I have acclimated, or they just went away. I am not sure.
Anyways, I thought it was appropriate to provide some sort of health update, and forgive me for not doing so earlier (my paranoia about jinxing things). Want to thank all who reached out again. I know a lot of people were thinking about me, and keeping me in their prayers. This is very much appreciated. I donāt want to use a word like āmiracleā, but, this has really been something great.
I had a few notes written down for that article I planned to publish, and as part of my preview of each four matchups, I felt that the public narrative around the UGA/Miss game, in particular, was very alarming. Here is a snippet of what you would have seen in your inbox leading up to the games last week had I not been sick:
UGA/MISS
The market is always one step behind. And by market, Iām referring to a representation of individuals (the average consumer) with their own ideas. The problem is thereās usually a convergence of these ideas amongst the āherdā and they tend to be on the losing side of most things. Thatās why 95% or whatever the percentage is of sports gamblers lose money.
I wonāt include the twitter tag as to out anyone unnecessarily, and to be clear I donāt know the person, but as soon as I see tweets like this from people who are not aligned with either of the teams in question (guy is a Vols fan), I start to get nervous.
You can almost see him talking himself into the bet in real time. Even as much as Iād like to believe this as a fan of the Dawgs, in my book, when the market sentiment starts to simplify the game like this, itās a good idea to position yourself on the opposite side of whatever it is they think will happen.
Iāve tried to always bring a rational approach to my prognostications when it comes to CFF, and would do the same when I used to bet on CFB outcomes, and one of the universal truths is that nothing is ever as simple as this person above would have you believe.
Iāve seen that type of tweet countless times on social networks like twitter, and its guys like that, that keep all the buildings in Vegas looking pretty. If gambling and speculating on sports were as simple as this person would have you believe, then the distribution of sports betting winners would be much wider.
In fact, I remember seeing tweets exactly like this one leading up to the rematch between UGA and Alabama back in 2021 when they played for the natty three or so weeks after the SEC championship game. Iām sure a lot of people thought a Bama ML, or Bama side bet was a ālockā considering what happened the first timeā¦
As a matter of principle I donāt like to take bets on the Dawgs, since mixing heart with brain is never wise, but I did that year almost exclusively because the market was so sure of the outcome on the other side.
Iām not saying Iām spooked enough to believe Ole Miss pulls off the āupsetā, which isnāt really much of an upset in my book, but I do think this game will be a lot more closer than most fans are expecting. And yes, I do think there is a really good chance that Ole Miss can pull off a victory.
Anyhoo, once the third quarter rolled around, and āTrinidaddyā Chambliss came out, AKA, the second coming of Joe Burrow in the 2019 SECCG, I knew it would be a long road ahead for the Dawgs. That was the best QB performance Iāve seen vs. Kirbyās defence since 2022 CJ Stroud in the Peach Bowl. Whenever a QB cracks out like that vs. Kirby, the Dawgs always lose (with the exception of that one time vs. OSU).
To be fair, most teams always lose when the opposing QB plays at a god-tier level. I mean, this dude looked like a combo of Kyler Murray with his elusiveness to evade pressure, and then Cam Ward/P. Mahomes with the arm angles he was whipping out on downfield throws.
It was a thing of beauty, truly. If he plays like that the rest of his career, heās going to make a lot of money playing football. And itās crazy to think what the sequence of events were that got him here.
In the pre-NIL world, he probably signs with Temple, before Ole Miss came in at the last minute. The former Div. II national champion then only got his first opportunity to start because of an Austin Simmons injury. He took the opportunity and ran with it as best he could and now Simmons is in the portal, and Chambliss & the Rebs have reportedly worked out a deal for him to return in 2026 (that probably involves millions of dollars).
If he does get another year, itāll be fascinating to see how the NFL views him with more game tape. I get that his physical stature is supposedly one reason why he wasnāt super coveted as a prospect coming out of high school, but heās still (probably generously) listed at 6 foot, 200 pounds. So maybe heās more like Bryce Young size (which is actually another player that came to mind watching that game; Youngās performance in the 2021 SECCG, specifically).
I think if Chambliss played the whole season, he probably is neck and neck with Mendoza for this yearās Heisman. Certainly if you reversed game performances vs. UGA, and instead had him winning the game back in October like he did last week, he would have almost been a lock to win the award in my opinion.
I also think people made too much out of the fact that Kiffin wouldnāt be involved in the game prep now that heād moved on to LSU. This is an Ole Miss team that had already played an entire seasonā12 games together. Plus, the guys who do most of the actual play calling: Charlie Weis Jr. and Pete Golding, were both still there.
But now, things are getting messy in Oxford. It seems like Lane didnāt expect the team to win vs. UGA, and now his blessing to allow the coaches to continue their playoff push is back firing on my man. With each win, Lane is losing more time to build his program with his staff. What a shit show, and how fitting for CFB in 2026.
It also delays the time in which Kiffin can get his guys to come over from Ole Miss. The news around the big fish, Chambliss, suggests he probably wonāt be moving on to Baton Rouge, so thatās 0/1. The next big prize is, of course, RB Kewan Lacy, who was also much more impressive vs. UGA in the second go-around compared to the first.
The problem for Lane is, do you hold the spot open for Lacy and justā¦ wait for him and hope heāll join? And if he doesnāt, then what? This year will be the first where there is no spring portal window, so now is the time to plug holes with imported talent should you choose to do so.
So, the longer Ole Miss remains alive, the better it is for them on two fronts: directly, as it is always better to win, especially in the playoffs, and indirectly, as it is keeping players away from other teams longer, and those teams have to move to fill holes sooner than later (specially, LSU).
Some thoughts on the other games:
Somehow, someway, Indiana is the real deal. Had I had the chance to write my full previews, one thing that would have not been anticipated was how thoroughly IU killed Alabama. My thinking pre-game was that Alabamaās talent advantage would make this is a very interesting contest. Especially on the lines of scrimmage.
What was most fascinating to me was that Alabama is a terrible run team, but that for the first time this year, they may actually be able to run it vs. a smaller front. In fact, I tweeted that the first five minutes of this game would tell us all we needed to know. If Bama could all of a sudden run the ball, theyād probably win.
Indeed, we did receive clarity in the first few minutes when Bama OC Ryan Grubb didnāt even attempt a run on the first four plays. The first drive ended with six pass plays to two rush attempts, where the Bama runner got six yards and zero yards.
IU continues to defy conventional wisdom regarding the blue chip ratio and what is believed to be the requisite amount of talent on the roster to win a natty. Well, that havenāt done it yet, so Iāll hold my breath. But what Cignetti has done is very impressive.
Equally impressive were the Miami Hurricanes. Unlike the IU/Bama matchup, this is one where my pre-game thoughts would have looked much better. My primary focus in my notes was that OSUās regular season schedule was one of, if not the worst slate Iāve ever seen. That in fact, they did not have a signature win on the year, and that we didnāt really know much about them with regards to how good they are. It was just assumed that they were very good, based on a combination of factors like the talent etc.
And because OSUās schedule was so bad, the team statistics around offensive/defensive production were not all that relevant in my mind when trying to assess how they would perform against another high caliber roster.
Now, I should say that Miami and Ole Miss played similarly from my perspective; in that they both came out playing inspired football. I think Ohio State is a good team. Just maybe not as good as some would want you to believe (cough cough Joel Klatt) in terms of giving them the benefit of the doubt. Probably if you played that MIA/OSU game in a best of five or seven series, OSU likely wins. But thatās not how football works, and Miami came out and won that game pretty convincingly by the end.
I really wanted to see a UGA vs. Miami battle because I feel like it would have been reminiscent of some of the old Bama vs. UGA battles in terms of violence and physicality. Oh well. Itāll be another great game anyways with Ole Miss stepping up vs. the Hurricanes.
And on that note, I should announce that Miami has officially been removed from my āWanker Programā list. Iām not here to talk about the āU is backā or any of that goofy nonsense, but rather, this is me tipping my cap to Marioās program and the culture of violence heās built there.
I love the game, what can I say, and I respect teams who win the right way. The way the game is meant to be played! Really love how aggressive they looked vs. OSU. It was Georgia-esque.
As far as the Oregon/Texas Tech matchup, this is one where my write up would have been very short. Once again, I just felt like I didnāt know anything about either team. Neither had a real signature win, and Texas Tech in particular had no prior data points that were relevant for assessing how theyād do versus a roster filled with future NFL players.
In the end, Techās investment this year paid off for them in my opinion. It was a good start. They won their conference and made the CFP. They probably need to balance their spending to level out the offence with the defence in future years, but overall, I think we can call 2025 a success for that program. Oregon exposed their lack of depth also, which will be a question I have regarding their spending philosophy for future years.
I think itās obvious that they will be leading the Big12 conference for the foreseeable future. Whether they can truly elevate to become one of the big boys of CFB remains to be seen.
My transfer portal (QB,RB,WR,TE) & coaching movement tracker:
