The CFB Degenerate's Newsletter: Happy Halloween
There is a town, two days journey to the north in the Hudson Highlands. It is a place called Sleepy Hollow. Have you heard of it?
- The Burgomaster, Sleepy Hollow (1999)
In a year where the Commodores of Vanderbilt miraculously found themselves ranked in the AP Poll for the first time since what many might assume WWII, it’s easy to forget that there was actually a period of sustained success in Nashville in the early 2010s. In fact, they even had back to back nine win seasons (and finished ranked in both years)!
The mad scientist responsible for this boon in the program was largely an unknown commodity at the time; he had bounced around the NFL and CFB in various offensive coaching staff positions. Having achieved remarkable success with the Commodores, the young man responsible was approached by an unlikely character, bringing with him a daunting task…
(Burgomaster) Hello James, I come bearing a message. There is a town, two days journey to the north in the Happy Valley. It is a place called State College. Have you heard of it?
(James) I have not.
An isolated farming community, mainly Dutch. Seven of the last ten matchups against their rival football team— the Buckeyes of Ohio State, have been murders.
Murders?
Complete domination. You will take these experimentations of yours to State College, and there you will turn the rivalry around. Bring justice to the Nittany Lions. Will you do this?
I will.
Remember, it is you, James Franklin, who is now put to the test.
How has James Franklin done in his task so far? Not great. In fact, the rivalry is even more lopsided now than it was in the 10 years prior to Franklin’s hiring. Franklin’s Lions have only beaten the Buckeyes once in 10 matchups (2016, when he had the GOAT, Saquon Barkley) since his arrival.
It goes without saying that that simply won’t cut it. Though to be fair, the Buckeyes have also hit some pretty high highs as a program during this period, making it a difficult hill to climb for Franklin.
Nonetheless, the annual tradition with PSU is that they beat everyone not named Ohio State, usually finishing with one or two losses by season’s end. You can add another team in there as Michigan won seven of the last 10 matchups as well, and three in a row with Harbaugh in his last three seasons. In the old world of College Football, the Buckeye/Wolverine road block prevented PSU from ever achieving anything more than 9-10 win seasons. As a result, PSU has been considered one of the B1G’s top programs, but generally lacked any real consideration as a contender for the Natty.
Certainly, from that standpoint PSU is one of the major beneficiaries of an expanded playoff (yea, amazing insight VP…). I know, I know, this is ground breaking news to you as subscribers, but the reason I’m writing this all out is not just because OSU and PSU play this week. This PSU team—dare I say—feels like they have a real shot to knock off the Buckeyes in a head to head matchup for the first time since 2016. To which you’ll no doubt tell me: “they do this every year, VP, don’t fall for the trap!”.
Unfortunately, with the aforementioned expanded playoff, A PSU victory here won’t really matter in the grand scheme of things (two loss OSU is most likely still getting in the CFP), but it’ll be nice bragging rights at least for the Lions; and could potentially offer a symbol of hope going forward for all involved in the program.
OSU fans will tell you their defence—particularly the pass rush—isn’t very good this season. There are numbers out there suggesting that this isn’t true (ranked top five statistically in points against, rush/pass yards against). However, what I will say about the statistics is that given the sample of OSU opponents, they most definitely exaggerate how good the OSU defence is—or at least, adds some uncertainty to the mix as we simply don’t know how good you are when you’re playing Akron, WMU, Marshall, MSU, Iowa, and Nebraska.
When they played Oregon, every major skill player for the Ducks had a productive day. Particularly Jordan James, the tail back, who finished the day scoring over 20 CFF points. That’s important because the engine of the Lions’ offence is the ground game and they have two pretty good runners in their backfield as well (again, I know, ground breaking insight here…).
*Cough* Were you expecting me to make a Drew Allar RB joke in there? I would never stoop so low... But maybe more importantly, Allar is actually completing forward passes this year. It’s caught the B1G off guard for sure, as this is a conference that revels in its 230+ pound tailbacks and seven man-OL alignments. More power to them in my opinion.
But the reader should know that Allar attempted over 40(!) passes vs. USC a few weeks ago and is currently competing over 70% of his passes. He’s also completed a not-too-shabby 12-4 TD to INT ratio (hey, this is pretty good for B1G passing standards).
On the other end, the thing that probably intrigues me the most with this matchup is how PSU’s DBs will handle the athleticism of OSU’s WRs. PSU has been described by many as one of the most athletic programs in all of CFB from a testing standpoint. I assume that there is an emphasis on these athletic qualities in their recruiting approach (more-so than other programs, at least).
When Fran Brown was the DB coach at UGA, I noticed that the two programs interacted quite a bit on the trail, which was/is unusual, but maybe speaks to the level of recruit that PSU is routinely bringing into their program. It’s probably not a coincidence that defensively speaking, the Lions are generally elite, similarly to UGA.
Playoff Picture Taking Shape
This week marks the last in which we are restricted to only the AP Poll’s rankings, as the first iteration of the CFP committee’s poll will be released next week. I couldn’t help but notice that some people on Twitter were upset this week at Missouri’s inclusion at #25 on the AP poll, given that they were blown out by Alabama the weekend prior.
It was a bit confusing to me given that Illinois was seeded just one spot ahead of Mizzou, and yet had the same resumé, with none of the corresponding outrage. This is another two loss team, with blowouts in the two ‘big’ matchups they’ve played this season, and who has wins over only unranked opponents (though Nebraska was briefly ranked, as was Vanderbilt for Mizzou).
Something else that was brought to my attention recently was the notion that the #5 seed is actually the most desirable spot in the expanded playoff. Mostly because people are assuming that the #12 seed will be a G5 opponent, and that if you win that one you most likely get to play the Big12 champion, who is perceived as a lesser foe than say… their B1G, SEC, or ACC counterparts. I’m not going to get into the politics of that (let it be known that I love every conference equally—with the exception of the MAC, who holds a special place in my heart).
It’s true that there is a seed reserved for the fifth highest ranked conference champion, but it’s not necessarily a given that they will be rated at #12 (though understandably this seems the most probable outcome to most people).
I came across this notion on a football message board that was discussing seeding for the SEC, with the understanding that it is, in fact, possible that the SEC’s highest rated team (e.g., UGA) may not be in the SEC championship game come December. On said forum the question was posed: does this actually matter? Furthermore, could missing it actually be an advantage?
Regardless of any of the other variables, I’m of the mind that avoiding the conference championship game is a desirable outcome as long as you still only have one loss at the end of the season.
Another tough game vs. a tough opponent probably isn’t worth the advantage of (maybe) getting the #1 seed in the 12-team playoff. Sure, you get a BYE as a top four seed, but then you get a BYE anyways if you don’t play in the conference game. I think if you asked most fans of the ‘big’ programs out there (Texas, OSU, Oregon etc.), most would probably take a proposed path of: BYE in early December, first round vs. Boise State, second round vs. Iowa State.
I’m interested in what the readers think regarding this topic:
If the answer is that it is a disadvantage, I suppose the question then becomes: what is the point of having conference championship games if (most of the time) all they do is determine seeding? Where the reward for winning is basically the same as if you missed the game in the first place.
I suppose it could vary per conference. Not to be ‘that guy’ but I think the SEC championship game is more often than not going to be a harder, more physical game than a first round playoff match vs. a 10, 11, 12 seed etc. that could be a G5 opponent, or an ACC/Big12 opponent.
More Than One RB in NY?
One of my deepest regrets this season is not grabbing any shares of Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson. The true junior started they year listed third on the Hawkeye RB depth chart, but subsequently took over the lead role in the first game.
I love B1G RBs in CFF. There is a long list of names that have been good to me over the years. And really, I think the B1G is at its best when there are big time RBs all over the conference. It’s midwest football… the weather gets cold, you run the football—those are the rules.
Most troubling is the fact that Nate Marchese in his own league offered to trade Kaleb Johnson to me in the offseason when it looked like he’d be buried on the depth chart. I of course rejected the offer without a second thought at the time. I felt even better when I nabbed the 5’9 speedster out of Florida, Kamari Moulton, who was compared to Aaron Jones from Tim Lester (formerly of Green Bay) and was listed as RB1 on the depth chart. Moulton did actually get his chance to start the year but did not make the most of the opportunity.
For seemingly as long as I can remember, I’ve always felt that if Iowa’s staff ever decided to concentrate touches to one runner, given their lack of efficacy in the passing game, and the stout defence giving them short fields, that there could be a really cool CFF asset emerge.
Enter 6’0, 225 pound KJ, who has been playing out of his mind this season with a sensation 7.8 y/pc on 146 attempts. In my opinion, in a year with a fairly weak QB class, there is an argument to be made to include not just one, but two RBs in the final four of the Heisman finalists in New York. Besides Jeanty, can anyone argue that KJ isn’t the most important player to his team at the moment?
Pat Narduzzi Scales Pitt Back
Lastly, I enjoyed reading this article in which Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi spoke to how he and his staff flipped a 3-9 program into a potential ACC winner in one offseason. Porting over many of the key components of the WCU offence doesn’t hurt with continuity, but he also mentioned a redefining of their NIL strategy, opting for a ‘less is more’ approach.
“Money doesn’t get you a championship,” Narduzzi told Yahoo Sports. “If it did, all these teams that have spent all this freaking money would be really good. Florida State. Michigan is spending a lot of money. I want hungry players.
“You talk about how did we go from 3-9? That’s how.”
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