The Converted Jumbo Slot Receiver Poised to Shred the SBC
Great things are done when men and mountains meet.
- William Blake, poet
Hello pigs, welcome back. A few months ago I was listening to the G5 Hive podcast—specifically the episode where they interviewed a beat writer from App State. In this piece (which was a great interview by the way, highly recommend), a name that popped up was WR Kaedin Robinson.
The writer specifically mentioned that Robinson was “unstoppable” in the spring practices:
Well, defensive coordinator Scot Sloan probably would not like to hear me say this, but Kaedin was unstoppable in spring ball. He really was.
Of course, that could also be a reflection of poor defence on App State’s part, but I—ever the optimist—would like to believe it is a sign of things to come from the Mountaineers’ passing attack this upcoming season. That and the fact that App State isn’t exactly known for fielding soft defences.
The 6’2 rising senior is already coming off a solid year having scored 10 TDs in 2023 with 903 receiving yards to go with it, headlined by a filthy nine catch, 118 yard performance in the bowl game in December. If you’re like me you probably look at that 6’2 frame and assume he’d be exclusively a boundary WR.
This was true for most of last season. However, he migrated to the slot for the bowl game and, as mentioned, had one of his best games of the year. Now, the beat writers who cover the program are under the impression that he’ll be in that role full time this year. Given his bowl game performance, it’s not hard to see why; and apparently he’s been continuing the upward trend throughout the offseason. Here’s an update from 247 Sports:
Kaedin Robinson moved into the slot role for App State's December bowl victory and delivered 118 yards, and that momentum carried over into spring camp. Robinson's connection with Aguilar was on full display as that passing combination was borderline unstoppable in spring scrimmages, where Robinson rolled up 157 yards (17.4 YPC).
According to this beat writer’s projection for the starting lineup, Robinson will occupy the slot, while Christian Horn and Makai Jackson occupy the boundaries.
Now, thinking about App State as a program, they’ve not exactly been a place known for CFF success at the WR position. So, before getting into Robinson, let us first take a deeper look at the system in place to get a better idea of what to expect in 2024.
Coaching & System
WR1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 11.67 — OC: 12.661 (half ppr)
Head coach Shawn Clark has been with the App State program in some form or fashion since 2016. Originally joining as the co-OC and OL coach, he served in that role for three seasons (2016-18) before elevating to associate head coach in 2019. He then took over as the head coach in 2020.
Prior to App State, Clark was the OL coach at Kent State (2013-15), Purdue (2009-12), and Eastern Kentucky (2003-08).
His OC, Frank Ponce, officially joined the program last year as the QBs coach and OC. Prior to that he was at Miami of Ohio (PGC/QB, 2022), App State (OC/QB, 2021), Louisville (QB, 2019-20), and then again App State (co-OC/QB, 2013-2018).
Evidently, this Ponce character can’t seem to get away from the Appalachian mountains very long, oscillating back and forth between the Mountaineers and elsewhere each season since 2018. Should he make it through the remainder of the offseason, this will be his first two consecutive seasons with App State since 2018.
Below is a summary of the relevant stats from each coach for today’s discussion. As usual you can ignore the projections.
Both coaches’ historical WR1 target share is above 20%, so that’s a good start. But, given the heavy run tendency of both coaches (~58/42 in favour of the run), this target share doesn’t typically amount to more than six targets per game, which is not ideal. 2021 seems to have been the best year for the passing game, as the WR1 averaged over 24% target share with 7.7 targets per game, and—amazingly—the next two WRs averaged 18.9% and 20.6%. In fact, 2021’s WR3 by scores averaged more targets per game than 2019’s WR1.
App State actually moved at a pretty fast clip last year, finishing 41st in the FBS with an average of 25 seconds per play. This was not an anomaly. Over the last three years under Clark, the Mountaineers have averaged a nifty 24.1 seconds per play, despite the heavy run usage.
Unfortunately, despite the team pace and historical target shares, there have been exactly zero 1000-yard receivers since Clark has been with the program. Ditto for Ponce’s time with the Mountaineers. In fact, Robinson’s output last year of 905 yards is the highest during both coaches’ tenures with the program.
Hmm, OK… so Robinson probably is going to be a league winner in CFF, but he did still average over 15 PPG in 1PPR formats last year, and by all indications it seems he’s only getting better headed into 2024.
Kaedin Robinson (6’2, 205)
2023 STATS: 68 (82)-905-10 (15.5 PPG)
Robinson’s career arc is a bit murky, and admittedly, it was difficult to track down the exact timeline of the various events. From what I can tell, he began his college career at the JuCo level and graduated/left in 2021. In that offseason he originally signed to UCF before transferring over to the good guys later in the year. And from what I understand, he was originally committed to UCF out of high school before going JuCo for a year.
He redshirted his first year at App State appearing in only four games (2.5 PPG). His second season was solid, though still fairly unremarkable—he caught 27 of his 47 targets for 419 yards and two scores (7.5 PPG). The aforementioned 2023 season was his breakout year, and despite not going over 1000 yards, he still managed to score 20 or more points five times, including a 30+ point performance vs. Georgia Southern.
He finished the year particularly strong with three straight double digit target performances vs. GaSo, Troy, and MiaOH. On the other side of it he scored less than 10 points four times, scoring only three points twice vs. CoCar and SMiss. So, there was quite a bit of volatility to his profile. However, he was still a valuable commodity to hold in most CFF formats, particularly Bestball leagues.
As for what prompted the move for Robinson to the slot in the bowl game, the writer provided some context per the G5 Hive interview:
So right at the end of the season, we played Miami of Ohio in the Cure Bowl or the Waterlogged Bowl. Just to give you an idea, I've never seen anything like it. I've seen a lot of football. But, you know, just before that game, our starting slot receiver actually entered the portal.
So Kaedin actually moved from the outside. He was playing to the boundary side most of the time, and he moved into the slot and had a phenomenal game that day. I think it was around 118, 120 yards.
And, you know, Kaedin is such a crafty, smart receiver. The beauty of being in the slot in this offense is, you know, it's probably the one place where routes are a little more flexible as he's reading things coming across the middle. If he wants to flatten out, if he thinks he should take it over the top, if he wants to go skinny post, he makes a read.
And he and Joey really have a connection with one another that Joey sees what Kaedin sees. And that was what made him so difficult to cover in spring ball was, you know, if you adjusted to him in one place, he'd just go to another. And he was really fantastic in spring ball.
I'm excited to see him there. He'll be in the slot when we're in 11 personnel with one tight end. If we go two tight ends, he will kick back out to the boundary side.
But, you know, he's a guy that you need to have on the field, and you've got to get the ball in his hands because he's, you know, he's really got phenomenal instincts for the game.
Fun fact: Robinson appeared in EA Sports’ CFB25 trailer, which you could argue may or may not be a good omen (it’s too early to say).
Closing
The primary concern with this profile is the historical track record of the staff. We’ve covered that already. On the good side, Robinson was already a solid WR asset last year, and his QB, Joey Aguilar, returns. I’ve always felt that is a good omen. Add on the fact that the Mountaineers actually move at a pretty hasty pace, and the profile becomes surprisingly good—so long as he’s not being overdrafted.
His current ADP according to Campus2Canton is 96.2, but his June ADP of 87.5 suggests that he might be climbing (no pun intended). He’s a solid player and will probably replicate what he did last year this year, but the upside does seem more limited compared to other WRs who go in this range due to the historical track record of the staff, which is quite extensive to this point. ◾
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Data from 2018-2023.