The Itis: CFB Treats - Another (CFF) Season in the Books

VP takes a bath in some mysterious black liquid; Coaching and Transfer portal bonanza kicks off; CFF shoutouts, And a run down of notable names in the portal currently.

Nov 28, 2023

So it's done finally. Send word to Giedi Prime to begin selling our spice reserves— but slowly. We don't want the price to fall. You have no idea how much it cost me to bring such a force to bear here. Now I only have one requirement— INCOME!

So squeeze, Rabban. Squeeze hard.

— Baron Vladimir Harkonnen, Dune (2021)

Tap… tap… tap…

The sounds of Rabban’s boots tap in harmony as he enters into the interior of a healing room in one of the satellite VP offices. Within the confines of the sanctuary there is a calming force at work, the atmosphere— marred by steam and incense, is a warm embrace. The intern approaches a large vat of black liquid laying bare in the middle of the room, his name tag reads: “Rabban — VolumePigs intern”.

At the tub is another intern, who promptly cautions Rabban:

“His raging isn’t complete.”

Rabban nods her off, and begins speaking directly to VP, who is fully submerged in this mysterious black liquid— the properties of which have been said to ease the pain of succumbing in the finals to a 50 point performance by Utah State backup QB Levi Williams in double overtime.

In a loud — but nervous tone — Rabban declares:

“Michigan beat OSU. The good guys throttled the nerds in Atlanta. And the final whistle on Saturday night has been signalled. The regular season is over— it’s a certainty.”

From the tub of black liquid, a massive and gluttonous figure emerges— VP’s head and shoulders now lay resting above the water. Addressing Rabban he replies:

“So it's done, finally…

Send word to VPigi Prime to begin unloading our offseason content reserves— but slowly.

We don't want the reader interest to fall… You have no idea how much it cost me to bring such a mass of content to bear this season.

Now I only have one requirement— SUBSCRIBE

So get the word out, Rabban, tell any CFB fan who will listen…”

Intern Rabban nods “Yes, VP…”

“…and the Christmas announcement?”

VP begins to lay back in the black liquid, his eyes not even addressing Rabban, but rather— laying fixated on an HD monitor in the distance, which is playing the double OT period between Utah State and NM on a loop…

“Soon…”

VP then fully submerges in the black liquid once more, concluding the conversation. As he descends, he utters under his breath in disgust:

“Two rushing TDs in overtime…”

Baron Harkonnen from Dune is undoubtedly a **volume pig**

CFF Playoff Congratulations — 2023

First of all, I want to extend a warm congratulations to Benjamin Jacob (@SicEveryone2027) for winning the first ever edition of the Golden Pig Invitational, which is my home league created for VP subscribers and CFF industry experts. Benjamin entered the playoff as the fourth seed, but posted two massive performances in back to back weeks to reign victorious. Señor SicEveryone2027 is truly an elite CFF player, and I’m glad he’s a loyal subscriber to the program! Congrats once again, Benjamin! Looking forward to competing again next season.

For those interested, the VP league is a 12 team pool, with four playoff seeds, the format is H2H Bestball (22 man roster, best score of: 2QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX, 1DST, 1K count towards the matchup), and weekly waivers. The buy-in this year was $30, with a winner take all structure. Next season the fee might be a bit higher, but the winnings will be divided into the four playoff teams. Reach out to me either via Substack or Twitter to express interest for 2024. The #1 seed this year went undefeated, but lost in the first round. He will be participating next year, in addition to myself and the other two playoff teams, plus some of the most notable experts in the CFF industry.

Those of you who read these articles on a weekly basis will have seen me reference a 24-team dynasty league I participate in. This is a league that was created by the revered CFF Analyst, Nate Marchese, this summer, and contains a who’s who of the CFF industry. Like the GPI, this is a H2H Bestball format league, and the roster size is 45 total. I was fortunate enough to advance to the finals of this league this season.

The week started off great, with a last second acquisition to bring in EMU’s RB2(ish) Jaylon Jackson, who netted me 18 points at an already strong position group for my squad. What I didn’t account for— Dillon Gabriel coming back from injury and torching it, scoring 40 points. But the real nail in the coffin was Utah State’s fill in at QB— Levi Williams, scoring 50. My three top QBs netted me 72 points, while Nate’s netted him an eye-watering 130. With that 58 point deficit at one position group, it’s no wonder my squad lost by a margin of 35. Of course, it didn’t help that Rasheen Ali left his game early and a beautiful Dillon Bell TD was called back on some BS. But that’s neither here nor there.

Congratulations to Nate, and all the other participants who made the playoffs of this competitive league.

Coaching Movement — Both MSUs Find Their Guy + Mark Stoops to A&M (Almost)

Former OU OC Jeff Lebby to Mississippi State — I like this move. I think MISST is a place where you can’t win the SEC consistently, but you can maybe catch lightning in a bottle with an offence that is off-grid. The edge of running offences that are more fringe is that it makes it hard for other teams to prepare on defence. Now, Lebby isn’t really a fringe air raid guy, as much as he is a pretty moderate air raid play caller, but I like the move nonetheless. The next move for MISST I’d image is retaining QB Will Rogers from the portal. A lot of potential with this offence next year, with some intriguing names on the roster already.

Jonathan Smith to East Lansing — In one of the more popular hires thus far this cycle, former Oregon State HC Jonathan Smith has taken the Michigan State job. I would say MSU is in similar spot to MISST, in that its a tough spot to win with some of the heavy weights in their conference, and that’s only going to get harder. Smith’s style isn’t air raid or some funky triple-option, but he is a solid coach. I wouldn’t expect him to stay at MSU very long, but I think he’ll find some success. He immediately makes their RBs and TEs more viable CFF assets.

Stoops staying put at Kentucky, A&M lands Mike Elko — In a bizarre turn of events, after it seemed that UK’s Mark Stoops would be taking the A&M job, it appeared that A&M pivoted to Duke’s Mike Elko. There are some different theories at work currently, none of which are confirmed. One is that the AD— our good friend, Ross ‘Arbitrage’ Bjork, jumped the gun on Stoops, and was promptly rejected by a board of directors when bringing this decision to the stage. Others suggest Stoops played A&M for leverage to improve his own situation at Kentucky. Either way — in typical Texas A&M fashion — it was an entertaining ordeal.

I actually thought Stoops would have been a really good hire. He’s taken Kentucky way beyond what that program should be capable of, and I think if he had more resources and the opportunity to acquire better talent, he could make a run at an SEC championship and by extension— a national championship. Elko also makes a lot of sense, too. But one has to wonder, if A&M didn’t already have a guy lined up, why did they choose to fire Fisher in the first place?

A few weeks ago, I put in this weekly article a poll to the audience, asking whether you would go with an offensive or defensive hire if you were the Texas A&M AD.

In it, I made the case that the blueprint for success if you’re A&M is already in front of you through Alabama and UGA, and that I thought they should probably try to follow that formula rather than recreate the wheel. Generally speaking that is: defensive head coach who’s also a dawg (no pun intended) on the recruiting trail.

Texas A&M (whether they admit it or not), are chasing the Alabama and UGA model. They’d be fools not to— indeed, it is not necessary to recreate the wheel here. The formula to dominate CFB is actually quite simple. The reason more programs don’t follow it is because they can’t. A&M is one of the few that can.

Well, I would say that the current AD and I are pretty aligned on this judging by these comments he made during the press conference on Monday:

Really those characteristics that I laid out on the stage earlier, defensive minded head coach, right, recruiting elite talent— having that mindset coming from the head coaching position. I mean, just look in our league, who are the two best programs right now? Who are they led by? Right, and so, looking at that formula, understanding that we can recruit at the highest level [too].

I actually think this is a good hire. I think A&M would have done well with either Stoops or Elko. The AD might have botched the Stoops situation (just speculating), but I think he does have the right idea in seeking to emulate what has been successful in the SEC lately.

From where I stand, to win a national championship, A&M needs to 1) continue to dominate DL recruiting, but also do a better job recruiting OL, 2) develop the defensive talent in particular better and start fielding elite defences year over year, 3) once 1) and 2) are achieved, find an elite offensive mind to OC this team.

That’s sort of the progression path that both Alabama and UGA went through— establishing the physicality and the defence of the program first, and then expanding to incorporate elite offensive play. Of course, ideally this just all happens at once to save time, but that’s probably wishful thinking if you’re an A&M fan. Good things take time etc. etc.

Current Coaching Openings Tracker

We are at the ‘musical chairs’ point of the season now where there is an exceptional amount of movement, both from the coaches and players, so I figured I’d keep a running score here and provide my thoughts in real time as we go. Once the dust settles in early 2024, I’ll do a series of reports on the CFF implications of all the coaching changes for paid subs.

Indiana — Tom Allen hit some good highs with the Hoosiers, and Indiana is a tough spot to win. It’s only going to get harder moving forward with the new B1G. The state itself produces good players, but not in a high quantity. In particular, I’d say the state has been quietly productive in producing good WRs: NFLer Rondale Moore (Purdue), NFLer David Bell (Purdue), 2024 Five Star WR Mylan Graham (Ohio State commit), and 2024 high Four Star WR NiTareon Tuggle (UGA commit) to name a few recently. The state has also produced a lot of good EDGE prospects, though the development in college hasn’t hit the same level as the WRs. The rumour here is someone like Josh Fry, current OSU O-line coach, could be a candidate. Personally, I’d love for them to try to recreate the Kalen DeBoer vibe that they had briefly and go with a young air-raid coach. The Hoosier roster already has a number of talented wideouts at its disposal (or at least, they did before this week), and it feels like Indiana is the type of program that can only compete if it goes off-grid on offence.
Boise State — I think it says all you need to know about BSU that they are currently playing in their conference championship game, and yet are without its coach, who they relieved of his duties in early November. This is a roster that has a lot of individual talent to mine, Ashton Jeanty and Taylen Green immediately come to mind. They could potentially bring back their star WR Eric McAllister from the portal too. CFF managers will be crossing their fingers that whoever they choose, is a believer in concentrating the run game volume through one runner. That’ll be something to monitor regarding Jeanty’s stock this offseason. Personally, I’d love for someone like current Colorado OC(?) Sean Lewis to get that job.
Houston — This one will have a lot of suiters. This program is in the middle of a football hotbed for recruiting, and now with B12 resources, they should be able to ascend fairly seamlessly with the right hire. I don’t really have a wishlist here, would someone like UTSA’s Jeff Traylor consider it? It would be a step up after all. The roster is pretty well stocked with talent at the skill positions, so there is an opportunity here for some new CFF value to be unlocked this offseason. Side note, the current Couger DC/DBs coach holds a salary of 1 Million dollars(!), I’m guessing he’ll be on the move with Holgerson out. I hear an elite DB job might be opening up soon…
New Mexico — NM is a tough place to win. You don’t even get your pick of the limited pool of New Mexico prospects— those kids tend to go to New Mexico State. In fact, I’d say both NM based programs essentially rely on getting the left over scraps from TX, the kids whose options are down to New Mexico, or FCS ball. This might be the worst job in all of the FBS. Hard to be excited about the prospects, but they did have a productive RB this year, and we know as CFF managers to not discriminate when it comes to potential value that can help us win.
Oregon State — Well, that’s a tough blow for the Beaves with Jonathan Smith moving on to East Lansing. Oregon State is one of my favourite programs on the west coast, and that was in large part due to Smith’s influence there. One of my favourite CFF players was RB Jermar Jefferson, who was very productive as a freshman in 2018, and again in 2020 in the COVID season. I’m sure we all know about Smith’s track record at the RB position by now, but they also had a strong track record at TE lately. I think there is sneaky upside to this Oregon State job opening, given that the new playoff format will have a spot reserved for the best G5 team. One can make an argument that this program represents one of the easiest paths to the playoffs. There is also the possibility that they eventually get eaten up into one of the four super conferences. I’m excited about this opening, and I think there’s a lot of upside here. Some rumours early on are Paul Chryst (former Wisconsin HC, would be good news for the RB position) and current DC Trent Bray.
San Diego State — SDSU was once a paragon of CFF greatness at the RB position. The list of productive seasons there in the 2010s was quite exhaustive. But lately, there hasn’t been much to be excited about from a CFF perspective. They were very much always a defensive program, but at least before they had RBs hitting 1000+ yards regularly. In recent years, this was just a stale offence, and a stingy defence to match it. Will they continue to seek the same identity with their next hire? Who knows, but SDSU is sort of like BSU, in that they are one of the better G5 programs, and I’d expect that there will be a lot of interest in the opening.
Syracuse — Dino Babers has been officially banished from the Syracuse program, and something I’d like to see is the OC— Jason Beck, be elevated to HC. The offence has been good lately, with there being a productive QB, RB, and WR/TE recently. Of course, the admin’s primary concern isn’t the CFF implications of who HCs their program, so I guess we’ll have to wait and see. This is a tough place to win, but the northeast has quietly become a productive recruiting base recently. One disturbing name that came out Monday while I was watching Napoleon in the theatre (I thought it was pretty good, btw) was UGA DB coach Fran Brown. That’d be a big recruiting loss. Can’t blame him, though.
MTSU — This one was a surprise to me, as Stockhill was 109-103 over his 18 seasons with the Blue Raiders. MTSU might be getting a bit ahead of themselves here, but the opening does at least present an opportunity for a coach with better CFF patterns to come in.
Other: ULM, UTEP

SECCG + The 2023 CFP Race

I’m glad the NCAA decided to schedule the national championship game early this year, with Alabama and Georgia meeting next Saturday in Atlanta.

What’s that you say? This is only the SECCG? Hogwash. I’ve seen enough this season— and I won’t even say there’s one program that can prevent a three-peat now, but rather, one specific circumstance that can— a motivated Alabama ‘underdog’ team in Atlanta (otherwise affectionately known as ‘The Saban Dome’ by the Gumps). It’s true, Alabama tends to do extremely well in Atlanta, on and off the field (have ya’ll seen what Caleb Downs is doing this season?), and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t at least slightly nervous about this game. I honestly can’t say that there’s any other opponent this season that would worry me.

I generally like the four-team CFP, and I think it’s served well almost every season it’s been in effect. But this season appears to be an outlier year, where even a potential close loss would relegate UGA out of the playoffs, which I think is objectively hilarious. And I know, I know, the CFP isn’t about the four best teams — see TCU over Alabama last year — it’s about the four most deserving teams based on resume etc. etc., but it feels like the 12-team format could have come early this year and even the staunchest four-CFP format defenders wouldn’t complain. The notion of a wounded FSU team squeezing in by beating a Louisville team that got beat by SEC afterthought Kentucky the week prior, while two CFB Goliaths battle in Atlanta with one (and potentially both) being left out is a strange thought.

It’s at this point that perhaps some readers will point out that Auburn lost to New Mexico State a week prior, and then took Alabama to the brink, requiring a miracle to keep the Tide alive this past Saturday. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest that Auburn was probably looking ahead to the rivalry game, and didn’t show up ready to play vs. NMS. I’d say the same about Bama and UGA last weekend, with regards to looking ahead to the SEC title game instead of focusing on Auburn and GT.

The version of Alabama that shows up this Saturday will be much better than last, and (hopefully) the same goes for UGA. On the other hand, Louisville was actually playing at a shot to get in the playoffs, and was playing against its bigger and more talented in-state rival in Kentucky. Could they have been looking ahead to the ACC championship vs. a hobbled FSU team? I guess it’s possible, but it’d be pretty strange— like, an Auburn team looking ahead to an SECCG vs. UGA, when they play Alabama the week prior. Hard to picture that.

Anyways, we don’t all have to see eye to eye on everything, and if you disagree with me here— that’s fine. But, as a fan of the Dawgs, should UGA win on Saturday, I will be celebrating as if they have just won a NC.

Notable Transfer Portal Entries

As always with the portal, there are a lot of WR and QB names entering. This list figures to saturate even more in the coming weeks, as conference championships conclude and bowl games begin. One of the most notable names who has not entered but is rumoured to soon is Texas A&M WR Evan Stewart, who did not travel with the team vs. LSU in Week 12. My guess? If he enters it will 1) be a massive bidding war and 2) likely end with a commitment to Alabama, but I’d also look out for a dark horse UGA, who Stewart was high on early in his recruitment. He is also originally from Tennessee, before moving to Texas in high school, so the Vols could be in play also. OSU and LSU make a lot of sense too.

There will be a large portion of the offseason content focusing on transfers going forward.

Notable names so far include: