The Mahdi Has Arrived
In one of the darkest corners of the college football ecosystem lies a bright star--let us witness him today.
Muad'Dib is wise in the ways of the desert. Muad'Dib creates his own water. Muad'Dib hides from the sun and travels in the cool night…
- Stilgar, ᑐᑌᑎᕮ
Amidst the frenetic days of the 2023 college football (CFB) season, murmurs came to life in September, suggesting that a charismatic figure in the southern region was nurturing an increasingly fervent and devoted following. “The prophecies were foretold” the VP interns exclaimed to me one afternoon. I dismissed them at first “Abomination! He has three scores in three games on 15 total carries” I replied. “He will fizzle out, like all that came before him. It is written.”
However, there are many fundamentalists in the VP ranks, and they never gave up on the one they called ‘The Mahdi’. By the end of week four, some of the nonbelievers in the north wing of the office began subscribing to the prophecy as well. By week six, the entire office had converted—myself included.
“Muad-Dib! Muad-Dib!” Could be heard all across the south wing of the VP head office when Texas State sophomore RB Ismail Mahdi ran 34 times for 188 yards and a score, while also catching a pass for nine yards vs. Louisiana Lafayette (~27 points). His three game stretch from week four to six was one of the most prolific stretches in the 2023 CFB season by any player—surprising given that he hadn’t seen more than six carries in a game in the first three weeks of the season.
It began with a brutal and calculated assassination of Nevada’s defence via a 216 yard-double score performance on 21 carries (~40 points). The following week, he rode the sand worms through heavy storms over to Southern Miss, where he scored three times, rushing for 89 yards on 14 carries. And then finally—the straw that broke the camel’s back—the aforementioned massive 34 carry performance vs. ULLAF.
A non-believer I was to start the season, my eyes were no longer blinded to the truth that laid before me: a brand new Volume Pig had been born—just as the ancient prophecy had foretold.
Ismail Mahdi — 5’9, 180
In the early days of Mahdi’s ascendence, the nonbelievers pointed to his size. “He’s small and frail… He reminds me of Timothée Chalamet—handsome perhaps, but too small to be the chosen one” were common criticisms heard across the CFF industry.
However, Mahdi converted these nonbelievers by simply putting his head down and producing. As mentioned, he had a deadly stretch of production between weeks four and six that would have made even Baron Harkonnen blush; and while he didn’t maintain that torrid pace throughout the season, he did carry the momentum forward.
From week four to the end of the Bobcats’ season, Mahdi averaged 22.6 touches per game over those 10 appearances. On the whole, he finished with 223 rush attempts for 1331 yards and 10 scores, while adding an additional 275 yards via the air, and another score on 20 receptions (18.5 PPG in 1PPR).
Notably, in a season where many a CFF asset struggled vs. the vaunted Troy defence, Mahdi held his own against the Trojans— he rushed 18 times for 128 yards, and caught four of his six targets for 32 yards (18 points).
In an era where so many players like this tend to hit the portal after a season like Mahdi had, it’s refreshing that he decided to return to the Cats for 2024. KSAT sports reporter RJ Marquez reported that several schools from the Power Five were interested in Mahdi, but he never budged. Mahdi was named a first-team All-American by CBS Sports and a second-team All-American by four other outlets.
He previously transferred to Texas State after playing his freshman season in the FCS at Houston Christian. He was an unranked recruit coming out of high school in Plano, TX.
GJ Kinne is a Highly Intelligent Sociopath
Texas State’s next leading rusher after Mahdi in 2023 was Donerio Davenport, who only carried the rock 90 times. That level of volume concentration to the RB1 is exactly what we’re looking for in CFF. While we might assume that that type of split will continue in 2024, for precision’s sake, we should take a look at the system in place.
The head coach of the program is a man named GJ Kinne, who joined last offseason by way of Incarnate Word. He orchestrated a productive offence in the FCS, where his Cardinals produced a QB who threw 60 TD passes, a RB who ran for over 1400 yards on 212 carries, and two 1200+ yard receivers. That’s a lot of production— Raban from House Harkonnen could probably learn a thing or two from Kinne about how to run a commercial operation in the heat.
The QB’s stat line from that year is particularly insane, passing for the aforementioned 60 TDs, but also running in another 11 on 132 carries (hello Jordan McCloud).
Prior to Incarnate Word, Kinne was the co-OC of UCF in 2021. That year was unfortunately a split backfield on aggregate, with the lead rusher receiving only 159 carries. On closer inspection, however—as someone who briefly rostered UCF RB Isaiah Bowser—the Knights did actually have a Volume Pig. The problem was that Bowser continued to get injured throughout the season.
Bowser began the year with a 33 carry performance for 172 yards and a score vs. Boise State. He then followed that up with a four score performance vs. Bethune Cookman (FCS). In week three is when he was injured.
Upon his return he received 26 and 21 carries in his first two games back. In his third game once again his day would be cut short by injury. He had 14 carries by that time. On his return in December for UCF’s Bowl Game vs. in-state rival Florida, Bowser rushed 35(!) times for 155 yards and two scores. On the whole, Bowser averaged 21+ touches per game.
Prior to UCF, Kinne got his first shot at calling plays when he served as the OC of Hawaii. Kinne’s Swiss-army knife—former VP-All American Calvin Turner—rushed 60 times for 331 yards and four scores, while notching an additional 33 receptions for 546 yards and six scores in only nine games (~20 PPG). Technically, Turner was more of a WR than a classic RB, but the ‘RB1’ PPG average here is good nonetheless.
Looking at the previous four seasons, we have four straight RB1s who either averaged 20+ touches (or close to it), 20+ PPG (or close to it), or both. I think it’s safe to say Kinne might need be added to my stuffed pig mailing list—he’s a kingmaker at the RB position.
Concerns & Closing Thoughts
Mahdi was definitely a blind spot for me during the 2023 season, and even into the early stages of the offseason. My first impression of him overshadowed his volume and production, and I was probably too late on the trigger in-season to capitalize. He was a better Bestball asset than standard asset, but he was a good tailback to have nonetheless, scoring 17 or more points in seven of his last 10 games.
The HC’s track record suggests he generally likes to get his best players the ball, which would appear as good news for Mahdi. The problems arise when we consider that the Bobcats took in—not one but two—incoming transfer RBs, both from UTEP: Deion Hankins and Torrance Burgess. Hankins in particular has had his moments in the past as a Volume Pig, and I don’t imagine he wants to be a doormat at Texas State.
Every year there are situations where a player’s volume inexplicably changes—seemingly out of nowhere—in either direction. With Mahdi in 2023, as mentioned, he started the year off with only 15 carries in three games—only to start toting the pig 25+ times a game with regularity. Perhaps only Paul Atreides could have seen that coming.
What will the split be now in 2024 with the new names in the room? Again, only the Muad’Dib himself could tell you that. But the track record of the coach suggests that it is likely that there will be a RB who finishes averaging either ~20 touches or ~20 PPG, or both—and I would assert that Mahdi is the most likely candidate.
Another factor to consider is that the Bobcats recently announced the transfer acquisition of former JMU QB Jordan McCloud, who ran in eight TDs himself last year. It’s never ideal when the QB is also quite involved in the run game.
Still, I remain cautiously optimistic about Mahdi’s outlook for 2024—but perhaps more as a Bestball asset than standard. Texas State’s schedule is not too bad, with the toughest OOC opponent being Arizona State. They also play Troy, who have typically been good on defence, but did lose their head coach this offseason. Overall, the schedule isn’t a concern. I am more so curious about what the input volume will look like for Mahdi in 2024.
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