The Most Improved Offence in 2024

Might also be the best...

The horseman was a Hessian mercenary, sent to the shores by German princes to keep Americans under the yoke of England.

- Baltus Van Tassel, Sleepy Hollow (1999)

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The NC State Wolfpack were one of the most active programs in the winter transfer portal window headed into 2024. Former star QB Grayson McCall was handpicked by OC Robert Anae from Coastal Carolina. Shortly after the announcement of that acquisition, McCall’s weaponry was immediately upgraded with WR transfers Noah Rogers from Ohio State, and Wesley Grimes from Wake Forest, along with TE/WR Justin Joly from UConn, who figures to occupy the vaunted ‘FLEXY’ role in 2024 (more on this in a bit).

Now, I should mention that I began writing the original version of this article back in October 2023, before all of these transfers even materialized. Just in case you’re wondering why there is a quote being pulled from a halloween-themed movie, that’s the reason (as you would expect—OC Robert Anae played the role of the ‘headless horseman’ in that one). Feeling uninspired midway through, I stopped writing that article and essentially neglected it in my vault ever since.

However, I knew that the original premise of that piece—highlighting NC State as a program that could see a boost in offensive efficiency in the next season—was still something worth writing about.

My original enthusiasm was ignited by the young cast of skill players—notably Kevin Concepcion and Javonte Vereen—as well as the aforementioned Robert Anae entering his second year with the program. So you can imagine that once the transfers started trickling in, my enthusiasm only grew stronger.

Now we’re almost in overkill mode; NC State isn’t just coming to decapitate the rest of the ACC in ‘24, they’re here to take the heads with them too.

Lofty offseason expectations are nothing new to the Wolfpack program. They were in a similar position a few seasons ago with senior QB Devin Leary and others, but ultimately disappointed. They have yet another opportunity to potentially win the ACC in 2024 as a dark horse, and now with an expanded playoff, one’s imagination can certainly run wild.

With so many names to cover, I figured that a full offensive breakdown would be necessary, rather than a solo profile on one or two players. Indeed, even some of the backup players demand our attention, so without further ado, let’s get into this thing.

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Coaching & System

Returning snaps on OL: 69% (pre April transfer window)

Normally I’d provide some more summary stats in the subtitle here, but given that we are looking at each position, that was impossible to do. Instead, we’ll go position by position.

The natural place to start is probably the QB spot. Below are some statistics (pulled from a 2018-2023 sample) on the characteristics of the offences under both HC Dave Doeren and OC Robert ‘Headless Horseman’ Anae. In terms of team pace, both coaches’ programs move at about an average rate on a seconds per play basis. Both are fairly balanced with run/pass as well.

Figure 1

Since Anae is in charge of the offence, I think it’s logical to focus on his offensive characteristics. I was a bit surprised to see his run/pass split actually favoured the ground game slightly, however the PPG averages of the position were pretty in-line with what I expected (Figure 2). Anae’s offences historically have gotten a lot of output from the QB position (notably Brennan Armstrong at UVA in 2021), whereas Doeren’s typically have not.

Ignore the projections as these figures have not been calibrated properly. What’s important for the reader are the summary statistics of each coaches’ offensive tendencies.

Figure 2

My memory must also be weighing those UVA teams more heavily than it should because I was taken aback by the fairly average pass attempt numbers under Anae. Recalling Brennan Armstrong’s fabled 2021 season, that was an offence where the red rocket was attempting over 45 passes per game!

But I suspect the Syracuse years might have brought the average down. Nonetheless, Anae has proven that he’ll leverage his QB to the fullest extent when he can, which is good news for McCall. Indeed, if as poor of a passer as Armstrong can be given the green light to chuck it around 45+ times a game, then I’m sure McCall can find himself in a similar position too.

The rushing usage of the QB is an important component of the equation to consider as well. Anae’s QB1 averaged over 13 carries a game between 2018 and 2023. His QBs also average around 48 yards and 0.7 scores per game along the ground; or more generally: 576 yards and 8.4 rushing TDs per 12 games.

Moving on to the RB position, I think it says a lot about the typical shape of Anae’s offences that the RB1’s rushing averages are actually not that far off from the QB’s. In fact, Anae’s QBs typically bite off a larger chunk of the team carry share (37.29%) than his RB1s (30.82%):

Figure 3

On top of the carry share, Anae’s QBs actually score rushing TDs more often than his RBs. This certainly checks out if you’ve been playing CFF and have been paying attention to Anae’s rosters over the last handful of years. Even at Syracuse, when RB LeQuint Allen had his breakout game at the end of the 2022 season vs. Minnesota, he failed to score a rushing TD.

We will look at specific personnel in a bit, as there is a name that has been flashing through spring reports, but overall, the system’s tendencies are telling us that this isn’t a position that is typically productive. And we know from the forensic analysis of the pig farming patterns that this is because the QB is actually used more like the RB1 in the offence under Anae.

The WR position is where there is a message here that probably needs to be communicated throughout the CFF community. Anae’s patterns suggest that at least three will be productive, but that there probably won’t be one who dominates the target share the way we saw last year with Concepcion.

Figure 4. The rows from top to bottom are ordered: Full season projection, per game projection, Dave Doeren’s historical average, and Robert Anae’s historical average.

A 23.28% target share is not so bad if the QB is passing it 45 times a game, but normally it’s not going to yield huge production. I actually think the projections from Joe’s model here could be pretty spot on in terms of what we might see from KC in 2024 (top row). It’s important to note that KC also tends to see a lot of volume via the run game, so he could still surpass 1000 yards total even if he doesn’t via the air.

However, with the influx of new names in the receiving room, I think it’s reasonable to assume that KC is not going to be vacuuming up volume to the same degree that he was in 2023. Indeed, here is a quote from Doeren on what he sees from the offence this offseason compared to last:

It was a good day throwing and catching the football. It’s a lot different when you’re not just trying to figure out ways to get [Kevin Concepcion] the ball. There’s a lot more things we can do with the football now on offense, so that was fun to see.

Anae’s offences have produced a few 1000-yard receivers in the past, like Dontayvion Wicks in 2021 (57-1203-9). However, even in the case of Wicks, there were two other WRs who out-targeted him with 78 and 74 on the year.

One of those players was QB/WR/RB Keytaon Thompson, who finished with 990 yards and four scores receiving, plus an additional 247 yards rushing and four more scores on 39 carries.

Thompson’s output is probably a good place to segway into the next section of this analysis: TE/WR Justin Joly. While both coaches’ TE numbers below are lacklustre, they do not tell the full story.

Figure 5

Anae’s offences use a position he calls the ‘FLEXY’, which is more of a versatile chess piece that’s moved around in the offence than a set position. Thompson was used like this at UVA, but even in that 2021 season, the bread-and-butter TE Jehlani Woods finished with 598 yards and eight scores.

Thompson’s output won’t be counted in the model’s numbers shown above since his position was officially WR on Fantrax.

Syracuse’s Orande Gadsden is the opposite. He was deployed as Anae’s FLEXY player in 2022 as a slot receiver, but had TE as his primary position on Fantrax. Gadsden finished the 2022 season as one of the top producing ‘TEs’ in CFF, with 61 receptions for 969 yards and six scores (~15 PPG).

Now Anae has a similar player at the position: Justin Joly. We’ll get into his profile in the next section.

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Personnel

QB Grayson McCall (6’3, 200) — 2023 PPG: 15.9 (four point passing TD)

McCall’s been a downward slope ever since his breakout in 2020 with Coastal Carolina. During the COVID year, he averaged a strong 26.6 PPG and demonstrated his rushing upside with 569 yards and seven scores on the ground in 11 games.

From that point onward, he averaged 24, 23 and 15 PPG over the next three seasons with Coastal Carolina. So the arrow isn’t exactly pointing in the right direction, but perhaps a change of scenery will be just what the doctor (Ichabod Crane) ordered.

His demonstrated dual threat ability is an important consideration, as he’ll likely be asked to run the football a lot in 2024. With a new supporting cast that should prove effective, and Anae’s year two of the system implementation, McCall should be in a position to succeed.

The early returns would suggest as much, at least, as McCall finished one half of the spring game completing 16-of-20 passes for 205 yards with two touchdowns.

I’m probably higher than the average player on McCall, and—despite getting burned on Armstrong last year—will probably be owning a lot of shares at his 184.4 ADP. I believe Anae will get the best out of McCall.

QB CJ Bailey (6’6, 190)

In addition to McCall, backup QB Cedrick Bailey has been having a standout spring. From a beat report on the true freshman:

In terms of size, athleticism and arm, I'm not sure State's had a signal-caller with as much natural ability. I still think State brings in an experienced portal quarterback, but if it doesn’t happen, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a rapid ascension, and Bailey ultimately wins the backup job.

His is more of a name to tuck away for 2025, as it appears McCall is the undisputed starter for 2024.

RB Jordan Waters (6’1, 220) — 2023 PPG: 13.3

Waters was another player who showed out in the Wolfpack’s spring game. Here’s an excerpt from a beat report:

Leading into the spring game, running back Jordan Waters had been one of the stars of spring ball, and it carried over Saturday. He had seven carries for 69 yards and a score. State has other really talented backs, but Water just looks different physically, and runs with an impressive combination of speed, quickness and power. Given the weapons State has on the outside, it should open up the Pack's run game this fall, and Waters is going to be a handful for defenses. Like McCall, he didn't see second-half action.

Waters had a surprisingly productive season last year, rushing for 819 yards and 12 TDs on 153 carries with the Duke Blue Devils.

Unfortunately, that production feels like the high-end for Waters given the new system he’s playing in, and if anything, if McCall is operating at peak potential those TD numbers should regress.

Granted we don’t know how the QB play is going to look in advance, so I can understand the rationale behind drafting a player like this in a bestball; however, I don’t see how Waters improves dramatically on 13.3 PPG now playing at NC State, and in my opinion, he is not a player worth prioritizing in CFF.

WR Kevin Concepcion (5’11, 187) — 2023 PPG: 19.4

Concepcion was a breakout star for the Pack in 2023, and was sort of a unique player in the sense that he had almost as many carries as receptions as a WR. The versatile usage wasn’t that surprising, given how he was used in high school, but his efficacy as a true freshman being the focal point of a P4 offence was.

Concepcion is a stud, we all know this. However, I have to preach some caution here for the CFF players who are under the impression that KC will be reproducing that output in 2024, or even expanding on it. The proverbial henhouse is a lot more stocked this go around than it was in 2023. You all saw the quote above by the head man himself— Dave Doeren. The offence overall is probably going to be more effective, which is good, but less of it is going to come through KC (most likely).

How should we weigh both of those forces? I would suggest viewing that 19.4 PPG as the high end of what KC can do for you, and assume he’ll be closer to 15-16 PPG in 2023; which is obviously still really good, just perhaps not enough to justify a second or third round selection.

From Figure 2, we see that Anae’s WR1 averages about 13-14 PPG in half PPR formats, so probably about 16 in full PPR.

WR Noah Rogers (6’2, 190) — 2023 PPG: NA

Rogers is basically the antithesis of Concepcion. Also a 2023 freshman, he had a stellar recruiting pedigree, but did not play at all for the Buckeyes last season. However, we all know OSU’s WR rotation is a tough one to crack into as a first year, so that’s not necessarily an indictment on Rogers.

Like the three players mentioned above, it sounds like Rogers has also had himself a productive spring. From the same beat report on the spring game:

What a difference year makes at receiver. Again, it was against primarily third-teamers, but the upgrade in talent on the outside is staggering. Noah Rogers, who had six receptions for 120 yards and a score in the first half, is going to be a problem for ACC secondaries. He's everything you look for in an outside receiver: big, dynamic, explosive, natural pass-catcher -- you get the picture -- and he's still nowhere near his ceiling.

I don’t know if Noah Rogers is going to be starting this year, but if he does he’ll be on the boundary at 6’2. Concepcion has the slot role locked down, so it’s really the two boundary spots that are open. That being said, the staff will probably move KC around too.

Remarkably, Rogers has ADP data, suggesting he is getting drafted in at least a few drafts that are feeding into C2C’s ADP calculator. He is currently being selected at an ADP of 298.5.

WR Wesley Grimes (6’2, 167) — 2023 PPG: 7.1

The other boundary receiver candidate is former Wake Forest WR Wesley Grimes. The same beat report mentioned him also in conjunction with Rogers and yet another Wolfpack wideout in Dacari Collins:

Rogers, Dacari Collins and Wesley Grimes have as much potential as any State outside receiver group in a long time

Grimes is entering his third year of college football and is coming off a year where he went over 300 yards receiving and scored four TDs for the Demon Deacons.

With Grimes I was a bit disappointed that he decided to transfer. I thought his initial spot was a good one for him at WF. Dave Clawson’s system has been good to the boundary WR position in years past.

Despite the buzz that Rogers is garnering, I think I would rather have Grimes currently given that he’s shown some flashes already in CFB, whereas Rogers is a total question mark currently. Grimes has no ADP data as of writing this.

TE/FLEXY Justin Joly (6’4, 215) — 2023 PPG: 10.7

OK, we’ve finally arrived to the golden goose. It took me some time to come around to this idea, but I am now of the mind that Joly is the player that you want on this team. I briefly touched on the pedigree of the system earlier, invoking the names of UVA’s Thompson and Syracuse’ Gadsden, and those are two important case studies to keep in mind.

I’m just going to put this out there: if KC’s CFF production somehow crashes in 2024, I think it’ll be due to Joly’s presence, rather than the other WRs on the roster.

Joly—as you might have gathered by his physique—is more of a big receiver à la Thompson and Gadsden than a standard TE. What actually prompted me to take a look at doing this article again was that I kept seeing Joly’s name come up when I was reading the practice reports coming out of spring.

Here is an excerpt from the beat report on the spring game:

FlexY Justin Joly also impressed, finishing with three catches for 58 yards in the first half. He's a really tough matchup and should be a dangerous weapon.

And here is a note from a report earlier this spring:

I liked when State landed him in the portal, but after seeing UConn transfer Justin Joly in person, I was even higher on the addition. Thus far, it sounds like Joly has lived up to the billing that led to him being a top-50 transfer prospect.

At past stops, the FLEXY spot has been a major weapon in Robert Anae's offense, and I get the sense Joly could really emerge in the spot this fall.

Consider that Joly already averaged over 10 PPG for UConn last year at the TE position. He was a PPR monster in particular, finishing the season with 56 catches for 578 yards and two scores. He saw 85 targets for UConn last season and it wouldn’t surprise me if he repeated those numbers for NC State.

I think Joly has as good a shot at finishing as the TE1 in 2024 as anyone, and he could even do so by a large margin given what we’ve seen out of that FLEXY spot in years past. Indeed, Anae’s best offences have always had a player like this at his disposal.

On the flip side, you could argue that Joly was already seeing steady targets, so why would his production jump now even if he is a featured player for NC State? To which I would reply: 1) this offence is probably going to be scoring more on average than UConn was, and 2) even if he does repeat what he did last year, 10.7 PPG is pretty good for the TE position.

You won’t be left feeling overwhelmingly disappointed if you draft him at least, unless you’ve spent an early pick on him (which I’m not advocating you do).

His current ADP is 175.5, which is about the middle of the 14th round. He is a screaming buy for me at that range.

For some context, the aforementioned Thompson and Gadsden saw 78 and 91 targets during their seasons in the FLEXY spot. You show me where else you can find TE-eligible players that have a reasonable path to that kind of volume. ◾

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