The Next Great LSU Receiver
The Next Great LSU Receiver
There is an odd pattern at work within LSU's WR room
I'm about to take them to New Orleans and bake 'em—it's hot down here…
- Lil Wayne, musician
Shocking as this may be to some, Baton Rouge isn’t just a French Canadian rib establishment (which I frequent habitually). It also happens to be the location of where the Tigers of LSU play. LSU—Louisiana Speed University, once thought of as DBU, currently making a serious run at a claim for WRU, are replacing a lot of production on offence this offseason.
The Heisman-winning QB moves on to the NFL. Lead pig in the backfield— Logan Diggs, is off to Ole Miss. And of course, LSU is replacing potentially two first round WRs in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas.
What do you do when you need to replace over 2700 receiving yards and 31 TDs? Well, you bring in some transfers to offload the vacated production. CJ Daniels and Zavion Thomas transfer in by way of Liberty and Mississippi State, respectively.
Being Louisiana Speed University, of course LSU already had some intriguing names on the roster. 6’2-215 pound playmaker Kyren ‘Fireman’ Lacy was once one of these bright eyed transfers coming into the program. He hasn’t managed to break through in his first two seasons with LSU, but as they say: better late than… never?
Chris ‘I’m hot but the car cool’ Hilton is another on the roster. He actually committed to LSU out of high school like a good Louisianan. In fact, he was the highest rated prospect in that stacked 2021 WR class. The names of that group, well, they’re a bunch of nobodies really. Brian Thomas was the fourth rated prospect in state, Malik Nabers was #6. Somebody else named Keon Coleman was #16—he originally committed to Michigan State.
While on the topic of in-state signees, Shelton ‘She remembered the name’ Sampson and Aaron ‘Birdman Junior’ Anderson are also in the room. Sampson was at one-time a five star prospect in the class of 2023. Anderson, a class of 2022 four star, committed to Alabama out of high school, before transferring back home last offseason. He’s the one Nick Saban famously told “you’d be playing more here then you are there” after LSU played Bama this past season.
LSU WRs Always Come in Twos?
An interesting pattern when looking at the past decade of the LSU Tigers program is that, while they don’t always have a WR breakout, when they do, they tend to have two.
It was Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry in 2013. First Team All-VP selections Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson went nuclear together in the fabled 2019 season with Joe Burrow. And this past year, it was Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas—granted Nabers had already sort of broken out the previous season. The point remains, when there is a good LSU WR, there tends to be two.
Put more precisely, between the years of 2004 and 2023, LSU had four seasons where a WR crossed 1000 yards, and in three out of the four times, it was two WRs who did so together. Malik Nabers in 2022 is the sole exception during this period to surpass the 1000-yard mark individually.
While I’m not going to follow that pattern religiously, I thought it was interesting to point out. It is a true statement to say that in the past, it was more likely that LSU had zero, or two 1000-yard receivers than it was that they had one. Can we project on that going forward? I would say probably not. But perhaps it does provide some food for thought when projecting what the LSU WR room will look like in 2024.
Some Changes to the Staff
First, I should mention that LSU’s staff underwent some changes this offseason. Former Tigers OC Mike Denbrok accepted the same position at Notre Dame, which resulted in LSU QBs coach Joe Sloan getting promoted to call plays. Sloan’s background is very Louisiana-heavy. Prior to spending the last two seasons with LSU, he was the OC at Louisiana Tech (LT) from 2020-21, the co-OC/QBs coach in 2019, and the WRs coach from 2013-18.
Notably, Sloan’s WR room had one of the all-time greatest WR seasons ever in CFB during the 2016 season. His lead receiver caught 136 passes for 1803 yards and 12 scores, while his WR2(ish) caught 82 for 1535 and 19(!) scores. That’s pretty filthy, and ironically fits right into the pattern that LSU has had over the last decade… maybe there is something to this.
Unfortunately, besides that season, there is not a lot that is notable about Sloan. During his time with LT, there were zero 1000-yard receivers when he was the co-OC or OC. The best season being Smoke Harris’ 2021 campaign of 71 receptions for 756 yards and six scores (~15 PPG in 1PPR formats).
WRs coach Cortez Hankton was also promoted this offseason to co-OC. He has no prior experience in a play calling role, but he was the WRs coach of LSU during three 1000-yard seasons (Nabers 2022-23, Thomas 2023). Before LSU, he served as the WRs coach at UGA from 2018-21, and prior to that, at Vanderbilt (2015-17) and Dartmouth (2012-14). Notably, he did not have a WR break 1000 yards at UGA or Vanderbilt.
The WR Room
Of the relevant names mentioned above, only one (or two) will likely be valuable assets to hold in CFF. My bet would be on CJ Daniels to secure the WR1 role. The 6’2-200 pounder out of Georgia averaged over 15 PPG in 1PPR formats last season, receiving 55 passes for 1067 yards and 10 scores. He is entering his fifth year of CFB, and is likely to be a one and done player for the Tigers.
If Daniels is the go-to guy on the boundary, there could still be an opportunity for the slot role (who was Sloan’s leading receiver at Louisiana Tech) to have a strong season. Kyren Lacy (6’2, 215) has played in the slot role for the Tigers before, but his build seems more fitted to the boundary. He averaged 9.8 PPG for LSU in 2023, catching 30 passes for 558 yards and seven scores.
Mississippi State transfer Zavion Thomas (5’11, 200) seems like a more appropriate candidate for the slot position. As does Aaron Anderson (5’8, 190). Thomas and Anderson are both entering their third years of CFB. Thomas averaged 9.8 PPG for the Bulldogs in 2023, catching 40 passes for 503 yards and a score. Anderson didn’t play much for the Tigers.
Other Considerations
When asking the question of whether there will be a productive LSU WR in 2024, we should consider some of the other variables that are changing year over year around the offence. Chief among these changes is the absence of a Heisman-winning QB. Jayden Daniels moves on, but former wonder-kid prospect Garrett Nussmeier has been waiting in the wings for this moment.
The former four star out of Flower Mound, TX was a C/O 2021 standout, and most notably remembered from his second half performance in the 2022 SECCG, when he lit up UGA’s secondary. Recruiting accolades and garbage time performance vs. UGA notwithstanding, I think it’s reasonable to assume he won’t be replicating what Daniels did last season, or what Joe Burrow did in 2019. To that end, I would suggest that LSU is probably not going to have multiple 1000-yard receivers in 2024. Judging by the patterns, I guess that means I’m leaning toward ‘zero’ 1000-yard receivers.
Another consideration is TE Mason Taylor, who was infamously compared to former UGA TE Brock Bowers in his freshman offseason, but has yet to cash in on those lofty expectations. This could be the season to lever up on those shares, though, as the Tigers welcome in a new QB who’s shown a strong rapport already with the TE. In the two games where Daniels sat out in the second halves in 2022 (SECCG vs. UGA and Bowl Game vs. Purdue), Taylor was targeted eight and six times, and scored a total of 12.3 and 19.8 points. Inquisitive minds can go back through the highlights to see how much of those stats came via the arm of Nuss vs. Daniels.
Closing
I think it’s worth taking a shot on some of the LSU WRs, as long as you’re not expending high-end draft capital. Taylor, the TE, shouldn’t cost too much. CJ Daniels could potentially be an ADP riser as more people get around to their offseason research. He’s the most obvious candidate to be next up, and LSU’s WR1 has a (well earned) reputation amongst the CFF crowd. Acquiring players like Thomas and Lacy might be more prudent, given these guys will be cheaper than Daniels, at whatever price he ends up landing on.
Logically, Daniels is the first one I’d reach for, but there’s just something about Lacy that I can’t dismiss. It’s not a tangible thing that I can explain, but more of a feeling. If there isn’t anything specific that comes out in the spring re:LSU WR room, Lacy will probably be a player I hope to acquire at the very end of my re-drafts. He had some moments last year, including a very nice performance vs. Georgia State. I acquired him in a dynasty league two weeks prior specifically for that game, and he didn’t disappoint me, so maybe that’s what’s driving my emotional connection. He also just has more familiarity compared to the two transfers, and he’s the most productive of the returning LSU WRs. The fact that he’s a Louisiana kid is just a cherry on top.
My head says Daniels, but my heart can’t shake Lacy. Maybe that’s just the universe telling me this will be another LSU-esque double 1000-yard season. Regardless, Mason Taylor, the TE, is definitely one you’ll want to put in your que. Zavion Thomas is also worth a flyer in the later rounds.
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