The Next Kevin Concepcion Plays for UNC
The Next Kevin Concepcion Plays for UNC
I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life, and that is why I succeed.
- Michael Jordan, basketball icon
Hello pigs, welcome back. Some of you may recall that one of the biggest storylines of the 2023 college football season came through North Carolina—not the Tar Heels—no, but the cross state rival NC State Wolfpack *gasp*.
A true freshman by the name of Kevin Concepcion broke out in September and subsequently established himself as the program’s WR1 in his first season of college football. He finished with a pretty spectacular output both in receiving and rushing; in fact, he had almost as many carries (41) as he did receptions (71)! It’s certainly not every day that you see a receiver with over 40 rush attempts—especially one who also saw over 100 targets (Jesus Christ, who is this guy? And where can I purchase a pair of Air Concepcions?).
This year, it could be another freshman from Charlotte, NC’s turn to break out in the ACC. UNC’s WR Jordan Shipp is in a similar position to Concepcion from a year ago, with an opportunity ahead of him to establish himself immediately for the Tar Heels. Like NC State last year, UNC is also ushering in a new QB with Drake Maye moving on to the NFL. The good news is that there aren’t many established names in the WR room ahead of Shipp either. We’ll dive deeper into this later.
For now, take a look at some of these quotes from UNC coverage this spring:
Freshman wide receiver Jordan Shipp looks the part as a potential star on the outside, snagging several catches over defenders before hauling in a 16-yard touchdown pass from Harrell. UNC’s highest-ranked recruit, according to 247Sports, Shipp was an elite playmaker at Providence Day School in Charlotte. The 6-foot-1, 190-pound wideout was a three-time state champion and logged 37 touchdowns, with nearly 3,000 yards in three seasons.
Here are a few quotes from the horse’s (OC Chip Lindsey’s) mouth:
Shipp played well past his age with his speed and catching ability. Lindsey raved about his confidence as a player as well as his ability to adjust to the college level quickly.
"When you're recruiting, you try to find out if guys love football, and (what their makeup is) like," Lindsey said. "His makeup was always a confident guy that loved to compete. You see that right out of the gate with him each and every day.
"And the best thing about him, sometimes as a freshman, you come in and you don't realize it's every day (that) you gotta get up and prepare. You gotta go to treatment, you gotta go to weights, you gotta go to practice meetings and all that. He's handled that transition well."
ON3 had this to say about Shipp during the All-American bowl in January:
Jordan Shipp was a late arrival to the All-American Bowl, but quickly made his presence felt with a big performance during the joint practice on Day 2. The North Carolina football commit had multiple touchdowns on the day, flashing his strong hands. Shipp is a pure ball winner and excels at finishing through contact and winning in contested situations.
Even UNC head coach Mack Brown himself commented on Shipp:
Jordan Shipp just continues to impress.
A lot of buzz, yes, but as usual, the most important place to start an article like this is probably by looking at the system in place first.
Coaching & System
WR1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 17.4 — OC: 12.8 (half ppr)
I feel like I should specify just in case the reader doesn’t read the full line above or doesn’t know what ppr is, the 17.4 PPG is quoted in a measurement where receptions count for 0.5 points, meaning that in a full PPR measurement, Brown’s average for his WR1 over the last five seasons is probably closer to 20!
What’s even more remarkable about Brown is that his WR1s have been so productive despite only one of them over the last four non-COVID seasons seeing a target share above 25% (Josh Downs averaged an absolutely monumental 38.7% target share in 2021—get your fucking tits out mate). Only two of those four seasons were years where the WR1 averaged double digit targets per game. So the efficiency of Brown’s offence is certainly something to note. You can find the summary of the relevant receiving stats under Brown below.
Despite a relatively low target share this past year, Devontez Walker had a strong season, scoring seven times with 699 yards in only eight games. He averaged a stellar nine targets per contest; the reason the aggregate target share is lower is because he missed one third of the season (four games to be precise).
UNC’s OC, Chip Lindsey, isn’t quite the WR kingmaker Brown is. Still, as can be seen below, his historical WR1 target share is over 20%, which is nice. However, of his last five non-COVID seasons, he hasn’t had a single 1000-yard receiver.
So it would appear that we have quite a contrast between the two coaches. Indeed, this is most unusual, as usually staff’s are pretty philosophically aligned. Brown’s track record is obviously better, and given that he’s the head coach I’m willing to override Lindsey’s poor performance in assessing the value of UNC’s WR room.
Historically, Brown’s teams average about a 47/53 run/pass split, while Lindsey’s average closer to a 48/52 split. UNC was a fast team last year, finishing 10th in the FBS with 22.5 seconds per play. This was not an anomaly, as Brown’s Tar Heels average 21.9 seconds per play over the last three seasons. That might partly explain some of the output numbers exceeding expectations based on the target share figures.
Jordan Shipp (6’1, 190)
Fun fact: Shipp is actually the son of former Florida Gator’s receiver Steve Shipp, who played at UF in the 90s. It would appear that the good football genes rubbed off, as Shipp was a highly coveted recruit in high school. He ranked as a composite four star according to 247 Sports, and a top 100 player in their internal ranking.
Shipp played at one of the most well-known high schools in the southeast (Providence Day), which is where current top five 2025 OT recruit David Sanders plays, and where former five star and now Michigan QB Jadyn Davis played. There are others who are notable but I think you get the point. Shipp was playing with the big boys up there in North Carolina.
247’s Gabe Brooks provided this evaluation the summer before Shipp’s senior season:
Good-sized outside receiver who's somewhat of a polished technician considering he's entering his senior year of high school. Unverified size, but listed anywhere from 6-foot-1 to 6-foot-2 and plays fairly big on the field.
Excellent short-to-intermediate target who knows how to leverage defenders into breaks and will work the middle of the field with disregard for his own safety. Consistent hands catcher with high-pointing acumen in timing and physical ability. Minds the boundaries at all times and frequently gets a toe down when difficult to do so.
Creates space with his body in various situations, whether fomenting separation on comebacks or boxing out for red-zone shots. For the same reasons, presents a dangerous back-shoulder target. Sneaky good after the catch with slippery strength and some tackle-breaking ability.
Ideal catalog of athletic testing and multi-sport context does not exist to the degree we see in many others. Shows some effective open-field build-up speed but can increase initial explosion and squeeze more juice from the top end.
Overall, a smooth operator who knows how to play the position and has produced impressive numbers for a championship-caliber high school team. Projects as a Power Five receiver prospect who could become a reliable, higher-volume pass catcher with some underrated playmaking ability that may raise his long-term ceiling.
I like that Brooksy mentioned the potential for Shipp to be a “higher-volume pass catcher”. I might have to track him down and sign him up for the pigpen (premium IHOP membership included).
Shipp’s high school accolades are listed below for your convenience:
2023: As a senior, caught 66 passes for 1,195 yards and 15 TDs on 18.1 yards per reception. across 11 games. Threw for 60 yards and 2 TDs (2-for-2 passing).
2022: Finished junior season with 62 receptions for 1,088 yards and 14 TDs on 17.5 yards per catch in 13 games. Added 4 rushes for 53 yards and 1 TD.2021: As a sophomore, caught 45 passes for 651 yards and 8 TDs on 14.5 yards per reception across 11 contests. Added 15-58 rushing and intercepted a pass on defense.
One of the things that stands out is that Shipp, like Concepcion, was moved around the field in high school. I mentioned earlier that KC finished with a staggering 41 rush attempts in 2023… perhaps something similar happens with Shipp in 2024.
Where KC had the edge over Shipp was that his OC, Robert Anae, has a history of getting creative, which is probably why they found as many ways as possible to get Concepcion the rock. The UNC staff—while the head coach’s WR1 PPG average is really good—does not have the same reputation for creative usage.
Closing
It’s true that former Georgia Tech receiver Nate McCollum returns in the WR room in 2024, and there are a few other guys like Kobe Paysour who also populate the depth chart. However, none of those guys really ‘wow’ me, and three of them (Paysour, JJ Jones, and Gavin Blackwell) are injured right now and missing time this spring.
Meanwhile, you have the true freshman on his MJ-ish balling out in camp. Surprisingly—and I mean really surprisingly—Shipp has ADP data in CFF. I expected that he’d be hot in C2C and DEVY, but thought surely nobody is drafting him in CFF drafts. Wrong—he currently holds an ADP of 361. That seems fair to me, I view him as a strong late round/last round type of profile.
The concerns would be that we still don’t know where he is in the WR rotation. Though even if he’s lower than expected he could open the season as a bench player and eventually take over by October. We also don’t know how his service is going to be, UNC’s top two candidates for starting QB are Max Johnson and Connor Harrell. Overall, not a player you want to prioritize too much, but worth a shot here and there. ◾
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