The Piggy Blinders: Idaho's Most Dangerous Duo
Former USC Five Star QB Malachi Nelson is a unique profile; his backfield partner isn't half bad either.
Let me just say… you’ve come to my attention.
- Oswald Mosely, The Peaky Blinders
There were two surprising events that involved Boise State football in 2023. The first was that they fired former head coach Andy Avalos, despite having a season where they won the Mountain West Conference (MWC). The second is that they acquired via the transfer portal one Malachi Nelson from the USC Trojans.
Those of you who play in Campus2Canton (C2C) or College Fantasy Football (CFF) leagues will be familiar with the name. Nelson was one of the most coveted recruits in the 2023 cycle. As a five star prospect out of Los Alamitos, CA, Nelson was ranked as the number five QB in his class (it was a top-heavy year for the position), and the number 12 overall prospect according to the 247 Sports Composite.
As a recap for those who might have missed it: Nelson sat on the bench in 2023 as a true freshman behind Caleb Williams. At the end of the season, Nelson hit the transfer portal, with many of us expecting him to land in another P5 program. Around the same time, USC’s back-up, Miller Moss, made his debut as a starter in the bowl game and absolutely torched Louisville’s secondary.
As it happens, Boise State was also dealing with a little bit of transfer portal friction themselves at the time. Star WR Eric McAllister bailed on the team in November, and All-World RB Ashton Jeanty was in the portal and flirting with high end programs like Texas, UGA and Ohio State. Lucky for the Broncos faithful, something ($$) persuaded Jeanty to come back to Idaho for his last season of CFB.
“I will have need of men like you. Except of course, there is no other man like you.” Was the overheard message from one booster to Jeanty at the Owyhee Tavern in downtown Boise.
Additionally, my sources tell me that Jeanty took on an active role in recruiting Malachi Nelson to Idaho. Leaked text messages obtained by the VP interns show Jeanty reassuring Nelson before his transfer: “I think we’ll make quite the team. The peasants won’t know what hit them”.
Evidently, this pitch proved to be convincing to Nelson, who in all likelihood is simply looking to get on the field in 2024, and then bounce back to the P5 (or I guess, P4 now—that still looks weird) in 2025.
While Nelson might not be quite as good as promised coming out of high school, the book isn’t written on him yet, and in this era of the transfer portal, I’d expect this isn’t his last move. Who knows—maybe he even ends up back at USC in 2025 or beyond? Stranger things have happened in CFB…
As far as the immediate future, to answer the question of how productive can this duo be in 2024, the first place I'd start is by looking at the coaching staff.
New Staff: Impact on QB/RB
As mentioned, the Broncos fired their head coach Andy Avalos midway through the season. The man who replaced him— Spencer Danielson, has been with Boise State in various capacities since 2017. He began as a grad assistant, and slowly moved up the ranks taking positions as co-DC (2019), DL (2019), LB (2021), and eventually DC in 2021.
Given that his background is defence, I don’t think there’s much utility we can glean from his background, though I don’t doubt that he’ll have a hand in shaping the offensive identity. At least from the RB perspective, that’s good news, because the Broncos have been a very successful running team for several years now.
Of the years that Danielson has been with the program, only two seasons (2020-2021) saw BSU fail to produce a 1000-yard rusher. Technically, that’s only one, as the COVID year doesn’t really count. Furthermore, the RB1 in CFF this past season was BSU’s Ashton Jeanty. So there’s a pretty good breadcrumb trail here for RB production.
The QB position, on the other hand, is more of a question mark. Brett Rypien’s 2018 season is probably the best one from a statistical standpoint since Danielson’s been with the program. Given that Danielson was a mere pup on the coaching staff at the time, I wouldn’t put too much stock into that.
Indeed, for QB we need to dig a bit deeper. Taking a look at who will likely be calling plays on offence, we find ourselves looking at the history of a man named Bush Hamden—err, I mean Dirk Koetter.
Hamden was originally slated to be the OC of BSU for the 2024 season, but he accepted the same role with Kentucky in February. BSU will replace him with their former 2022 OC—Dirk Koetter, who was not in coaching last year. Koetter took over the interim OC position in late September during the 2022 season, after then-head coach Andy Avalos fired Tim Plough.
While I don’t have the numbers handy, I know as a Holani shareholder that the offence improved quite drastically in 2022 after Koetter took over. The QB position was part of that ascendence, with Taylen Green finishing the year with 2043 passing yards, 14-6 TD-INTs, 581 rushing yards and 10 scores on the ground (~19 PPG).
Prior to Boise State, Koetter was the OC of the Atlanta Falcons of the NFL (2019-2020). His QB1— Matt Ryan, passed for 4500+ yards and a 26-11 TD-INT ratio. Keep in mind that that is over 16 games. Ryan’s run usage was negligible, but that’s probably due to his skill set, or lack there of, than anything on Koetter’s end.
His time as the head coach at Tampa Bay didn’t have any special seasons for the QB position. In 2018, Jamies Winston and Patrick Fitzgerald split time. The 2017 season was a better statistical season for Winston, but his best campaign under Koetter was in 2016.
Overall, I’d say there isn’t much compelling me in either direction here for Koetter’s influence on the QB position.
QB Malachi Nelson — 6’3, 190
I won’t spend any time going over Ashton Jeanty’s profile because I think we all know about him by now. The QB— Malachi Nelson, is a bit more of an enigma. He didn’t play at all in his freshman season for USC, and that is likely why he chose a destination like BSU for his next home. I’m going to assume he’s basically the guaranteed starter for 2024.
Given the lack of college football production, we really only have his high school profile to fall back on. Here is 247 Sports on Nelson as a prospect:
Tall, lean, and long-armed with slender natural build but frame to add some mass. Fluid mover in general, including arm motion and lower-body mechanics. Range of motion in movement patterns fosters excellent off-platform passing ability and general playmaking acumen. Alters arm angles and delivers with accuracy. Vertical arm strength, intermediate velocity, and touch to all fields speak to elite arm talent.
Perhaps the most natural thrower in an excellent 2023 QB group. Flashes the functional athleticism to extend plays outside the pocket, where finding a receiver is almost always the priority over tucking and running. Still, athletic enough to hurt defenses with legs on occasion. Sees the field well and processes naturally. Production has risen each of first three years in high school.
INT rate is on the higher end of the spectrum for Top247 quarterbacks -- one every 30.6 throws as a junior, one every 29.9 in freshman through junior seasons. Adding mass and strength will help withstand physical demands of high-major ball. Very likely one of the nation's top quarterbacks -- and overall prospects regardless of position -- in the 2023 class. Projects as an impact starter at the high-major level with long-term early-round NFL Draft potential.
Closing
Those who have played CFF in the past will know that there are generally only two types of QBs who finish with elite seasons statistically: those that are dual threats, and those that play in high frequency air raid systems. I say high frequency to emphasize the point, because simply playing in an offence that refers to itself as ‘air raid’ is not enough.
When assessing Nelson’s outlook for 2024, there’s a set of questions we can look at to arrive to a logical conclusion for what to expect: 1) who calls the plays for BSU and what’s his track record, and 2) does Nelson’s profile match either of the two groups that typically perform well in CFF?
The answer to number one has been half-answered already, we know who the OC is. His track record at QB is not very impressive, at least, so far. On the second, I’m going to go with ‘no’ as my answer. While I’d expect Nelson to move around a bit, I’m not expecting massive output along the ground, and it’ll be the RBs (who am I kidding—RB with no ‘s’), who scores a lot of the TDs. For context: Nelson ran only 70 times over his high school career, finishing with a total of 350 yards and three scores in his three seasons as starter.
Yet, there’s something about Nelson’s profile that’s intriguing. It’s rare to find a former five star recruit—one year removed from that rating—making his way down to the G5 level.
Nelson was seen by some as the QB1 of his class (yes, even over Nico and Arch) not so long ago. He might not be an elite CFF asset, but I think he could still be pretty good. The range of 20-25 PPG doesn’t feel so far out of the question. As far as Ashton Jeanty is concerned, you don’t need me to tell you to draft him, he’s already regarded as a unanimous top two selection.
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