The Rise of Mizzou Football
The Rise of Mizzou Football
Explained Via The Spanish Empire of the 16th and 17th Centuries
The history of Spain is a history of bloodshed. The Spanish nation united and greedily stepped into the shoes of the Emperor.
- Albert Camus, philosopher
Pigs, welcome back and apologies for not being able to fulfil my regular weekly obligations this week. I am in the process of moving right now so there hasn’t been much time for writing. This is an article I wrote during a fever back in March, so it may be a bit strange/out-dated. I will return to the regular content starting Sunday. Cheers.
During the period of Spain's imperial expansion and rise to power in the 16th and 17th centuries, the Iberian Peninsula bore witness to a remarkable chapter in world history. Surrounded by enemies—competing empires in France, Britain and Amsterdam—one little country expanded its reach across the globe to build an economic and industrial superpower.
This period coincided with the influx of wealth from the Americas, thanks to the Spanish exploration and colonization. The discovery of vast silver mines in places like Potosí (present-day Bolivia) contributed to a temporary economic boom. However, much of this wealth was concentrated in the hands of a few, leading to economic inequality rather than widespread prosperity for the population.
The Missouri Tigers football program, like Spain in the 16th century, is located in a lion’s den of voraciously competing superpowers. During their ascent, the Spaniards had to deal with the British, French, and Dutch empires, among others, all at the same time, making their transformation from European also-ran to sun-tanned heavy weight that much more impressive.
The Tigers, while not necessarily geographically surrounded, are undoubtedly in the middle of a war-torn continent of College Football. Britain and France— Alabama and Georgia, have long dominated the SEC, which—with the inclusions of Texas and Oklahoma—more so resembles that of 16th century Europe in amidst continental warfare, than your average CFB conference.
The Dutch and Portuguese—LSU and Texas A&M, were already big time players in conference. They have history and wealth on their sides. There are other sleeping giants who have proven time and time again that they can ascend in a very short period of time (Tennessee, Florida, Auburn). And of course, there are foreign empires as well, like the Ottomans of Ohio State, who have syphoned many of Missouri’s best athletes out of state for many years.
While Spain was not the first European nation to establish overseas trade routes (Portugal had already tapped into the African coasts), they were able to utilize this strategy to make up ground on it’s older and more powerful neighbours. Like Texas A&M (allegedly) having the first mover’s advantage in the NIL space, Mizzou was not the first to make hay with this new tool, but it has undoubtedly used this lever strategically to begin its ascent up the CFB hierarchy.
Britain and France also established extensive international trade routes, but their overseas activities were not as early as those of the Iberian powers. Nevertheless, they would emerge as significant contributors to global trade and colonization during this era, mirroring the trajectory of programs like Alabama and Georgia, which may not have initially maximized the potential of leveraging NIL to its fullest extent, but likely will catch up very fast.
While it is to be expected that there will eventually be greater regulations and restrictions on NIL-related recruiting, this will undoubtedly take time, and there will always be loopholes that will be exploited. With that in mind, let us embark on a contemplative journey into the future trajectory of the Missouri Tigers, by recounting the past of the 16th and 17th century Spanish empire.
Name, Image & Likeness (NIL)
In the 1500s, Spain tapped into the vast resources of the Americas, which fundamentally altered its economic and imperial landscape. The Italian adventurer — you might have heard of him — Christopher Columbus, best known as one the world’s most ambitious explorers, charted a path into the Americas. Subsequent Spanish explorers, including Hernán Cortés in Mexico and Francisco Pizarro in Peru, led expeditions that resulted in the conquest of powerful indigenous empires.
Like Christopher Colombus, current Mizzou head football coach, Eli Drinkwitz, is best known as CFB’s most daring explorer… well, actually maybe not, but he and the Mizzou Tigers are charting a path forward here in previously undiscovered land. We’ve seen NIL operations go wild before— having a head coach sign off on a ‘pay for play’ scheme is nothing new. However, incorporating state legislators is something innovative, which we hadn’t seen done yet in other regions of the country.
Here is an overview on Missouri’s recent NIL legislation:
In the absence of uniform laws from Congress or a more robust policy from the NCAA, states continue to look for ways to help their institutions compete in the name, image, and likeness (NIL) “arms race.” One way is for states to implement progressive NIL laws. Effective August 28, 2023, Missouri institutions will be able to arm themselves with arguably the most progressive state NIL law in the country. H.B.417, which was recently signed by Governor Mike Parson, significantly amends Missouri’s prior NIL law.
Throughout the NIL era, Missouri has been among the most aggressive states in removing barriers for student-athletes to profit off of their NIL. After the NCAA first permitted student-athletes to benefit from their NIL in July 2021, the Missouri legislature quickly enacted Section 173.280 into the Missouri Code.
However, like many early state NIL laws, Section 173.280 included some restrictions on how student-athletes could benefit from their NIL. Most notably among these restrictions were prohibitions against any school official providing any NIL benefit or assistance to student-athletes.
H.B. 417 eliminates these barriers and then some. The amendment significantly expands Section 173.280 and, in many ways, goes further than other states in guaranteeing student-athletes’ NIL rights. The most significant changes include:
(1) the law will allow schools to actively participate in NIL deals;
(2) the law will allow high school athletes to receive NIL compensation from a Missouri institution once they have signed a letter of intent; and
(3) the law challenges the NCAA and others’ ability to enforce any NIL restrictions.
One of the subtle aspects of this law is bullet (2). What this means is that athletes in the state of Missouri can begin earning NIL money from the University of Missouri while still in high school. Granted, this period will be very short, as high school students do not sign their letters of intent (NLI, don’t confuse this with NIL), in December of their senior year. Many of the best prospects enrol early, also, so this would not really affect them. However, should a kid stay in high school for their final semester, they can begin collecting payments for several months prior to arriving on campus.
How much of an advantage is this? It’s hard to say, and it would probably vary by individual athlete. One loop hole, that is likely to happen or already be happening, is that contracts could probably be signed in advance of early signing day (ESD) in December. For example, Williams Nwaneri committed to Mizzou in August of 2023. One could imagine that there might have already been a contract (not the NLI) to sign there, allowing payments to begin transferring (that’s just me speculating, I don’t know).
Obviously, this new legislature’s influence will still have its limitations on high school recruiting. Even in this past class, two of the top players in the state got away. High four star TE Jaden Reddell signed with UGA, and WR Ryan Wingo signed with Texas.
However, we’ve already seen the impact that one high profile recruiting win can have on the program’s success in 2022’s Luther Burden. And there will be players every cycle — like Burden and Nwaneri — who choose to stay home. Would they have chosen Mizzou anyway, prior to the NIL era of recruiting? Who knows, but I do know that getting a massive 12M donation to the fund can’t hurt.
Most people wouldn’t think of Missouri as an abnormally wealthy state. However, anybody’s who watched the series ‘Ozark’ knows that this state is sneaky rich. But seriously, there is a lot more wealth than you’d expect from Mizzou’s alumni base. Some names you might recognize from this group include:
Stanley Kroenke: owner of the NBA’s Denver Nuggets and the NHL’s Colorado Avalanche, co-owner of NFL’s Los Angeles Rams, major shareholder in Arsenal FC
Samuel Walton: founder of Walmart
Andrew Cherng: founder of Chinese fast-food chain Panda Express
One could make the argument here that, for NIL donation purposes at least, a higher level wealth inequality (Missouri is one of the worst offenders of this among US states) can be a benefit. It’s more likely that someone who has all of the money will also have a lot of disposable money to throw around on their hobbies. If that money is spread over the population evenly, it’s unlikely that the average person will contribute to an NIL fund. So that’s another plus for the Tigers in the new era of CFB.
In-State Talent Continues to Improve
An under the radar trend in CFB right now is the ascent of the in-state talent in Missouri over the last handful of years. Looking back at the last decade or so, there was an outlier year in 2012, with the nation’s #2 rated player in Dorial Green Beckham, plus two other top 100 recruits; however, from 2013-2017, there were only a total of two top-100 recruits according to the ON3 consensus ranking. One of those, RB Ezekiel Elliot, committed out of state to the Ohio State Buckeyes, the other, OT Brian Wallace, committed to Arkansas.
Starting in 2018, there has been at least one top-100 rated recruit coming out of Missouri every cycle, and the recruiting services don’t even include powerhouse high schools located on the border with Illinois, such as East St. Louis high school, where the nation’s top rated WR recruit in 2022— Luther Burden played, but is credited to the state of Illinois.
Remarkably, Missouri—a state that had one composite five star prospect from 2013-2021—has produced an ON3 five-star plus (five star across all four major services) and top-10 nationally rated prospect in three straight cycles now, with WR Luther Burden in 2022, DE Adepoju Adebawore in 2023, and DE Williams Nwaneri in 2024. At present rankings, they’ll skip a year in 2025, but have another top-five nationally rated prospect in 2026’s OT Jackson Cantwell.
This boon of in-state talent in part explains why the legislature around NIL rights of Missouri high school athletes was such a crucial strategic move for the Tigers. Without a period of national dominance, or a widely recognizable brand outside of their region, the Tigers will struggle to win recruiting battles in other states such as Georgia, Texas, and Florida, against the home state schools in those regions. The lifeline to success for a program like Mizzou runs through it’s own state. It is crucial that they are able to sign most, if not all, of the best players in-state to compete with the other powers of the SEC, and nationally.
They’ve done a good job with this since NIL went live. Prying Luther Burden away from Oklahoma (OU) and UGA was a massive victory for Drinkwitz’ regime. As was winning out for Nwaneri in 2024, once again, beating out OU and UGA for his signature. There have been a few misses in there— the aforementioned Adebawore was one where OU was able to successfully put a pipeline into the state.
Another thing to consider is that with the current state of the transfer portal, many of these players who slipped away end up making their way back home. 2023’s OT Cayden Green signed with the OU Sooners. He transferred back home this offseason. 2020’s four star WR Mookie Cooper originally committed to the OSU Buckeyes. He transferred back a season or so later and is now a piece of Mizzou’s potent pass attack. LSU’s stalwart DT Mekhi Wingo did the same thing last offseason. So there’s definitely a margin of error here too with the way the transfer portal is being utilized currently.
12-Team Playoff Benefits a Program Like Mizzou?
Concluding today’s discussion, we should also chat briefly about the other big change in CFB— the expansion of the playoff from four spots to 12. Does having more seats available benefit a program like Mizzou? To get into the playoff, the answer is yes.
As far as ever winning a national championship, I’m not sure a program like Mizzou would ever have the depth to beat the UGAs of CFB multiple times in one season. It’s one thing to win some high profile recruiting battles, it’s another to consistently layer the program with waves of elite prospects in the manner in which a program like Alabama does.
The 12-team playoff will be just as much a battle of attrition as anything, and this is where I think elite depth, especially at OL/DL, will be a large factor in who wins national championships going forward.
Mizzou would have already made the playoffs had the 12-team format started this past season. In their bowl game in December, they enacted some long-overdue revenge on those filthy talent-stealing Ottomans, beating OSU 14-3 in the Cotton Bowl.
And who’s to say Mizzou can’t catch lightning in a bottle just once—I mean, if Auburn can do it, anybody can, right? Regardless of whether they ever win the big one, I do think Mizzou is going to find themselves making the playoff much more often than people expect going forward. My (maybe not so) hot take is that the Tigers will consistently be one of the upper echelon SEC teams so long as NIL collectives exist. ◾
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