When I Think of Daylan Smothers, I Think: "2025's Version of Demond Claiborne"
(Thomas) And you, Mani? Which one will you choose? (Gregoire) Mani doesn't use firearms.
Too much noise, too much smoke, bad smell.
- Mani, Brotherhood of the Wolf (2001)
Few players caught me off guard more in 2024 than Wake Forest’s Demond Claiborne. In fact, he made me look like a fool. Playing under a staff that had never had a running back see 200 touches in the 10 prior seasons spent at Wake, Claiborne ended 2024 with a cheeky 250 touches (get your fucking tits out mate).
What did he do with that volume? He dashed through the ACC with an élan unknown to mankind is what he did. DC amassed just over 1000 yards rushing, 13 total scores and another 250 yards receiving. You could combine 2023 and 2022’s Wake Forest RB1 production and you’d still come up short of Claiborne’s TD total in 2024. For context, Claiborne was the lead runner the year prior also, and he only finished with a total of around 610 yards rushing and receiving on 140 touches.
I mean, we’re talking about the same staff that found a way to run Kenneth Walker out of town after inconsistent touches plagued his otherwise solid 2020 season. Well, we all know how the story played out…
So what does all this have to do with NC State’s RB Daylan Smothers (formerly of Oklahoma)? Well, similar to the old Wake staff, this Wolfpack staff’s history at the RB position isn’t particularly flattering. The last five RB1s to play under head coach Dave Doeren failed to receive 140 carries, let alone 200. This trend is enough to make one cry “Sacré Blue!!!”, and not in a good way.
However, there is a difference; namely an extremely notable data point in Doeren’s history, which we’ll get to shortly. Despite the many similarities between the staffs, I’d give the nod to NC State’s when it comes to track records at the RB position. And sure, we might just be picking the tallest of the short straws here, but every detail counts.
Needless to say, today’s article is going to be a bit unusual. Betting on outliers is certainly not the norm for this publication (so not my type!). Indeed, there’s a reason I didn’t acquire any shares of Claiborne last year, and I can say in good faith it wasn’t anything personal.
But if there’s anything good that came out of that situation, it’s that the DC debacle did open my eyes. Having had the benefit of hindsight 20/20 vision, we can break down what might have led to that seemingly implausible breakout.
One, Claiborne was by far and away the team’s best player. OK, this isn’t all that unique is it? Kenneth Walker the Third was Wake’s best player in 2020 and they only gave that beautiful bastard 119 carries. Though I suppose one could argue that there wasn’t a Christian Beal Smith on the 2024 team.
The next component was that the passing game was a complete sham in 2024. The QB play was terrible and there weren’t any standouts at WR save for an exciting freshman in Micah Mays who didn’t start until October.
The third variable is, well, sheer coincidence, I think. There’s always an element of randomness involved in the game of CFF. It’s not an exact science. Patterns are important, but even they are not 100% bulletproof. Every year there exist pattern-breakers—the fun part is in trying to identify these ahead of time. Again, there’ll be some luck involved.
With that being said, I think there is a strong case to be made in favour of one Daylan Smothers of the NC State Wolfpack (awooo!).
Coaching & System
RB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 10.6 — OC: NA (half ppr)
We already know that the coaching averages will be less than impressive—that was sort of the point of this article to begin with. Dave Doeren, who Substack editor keeps changing to “Doreen”—SMH, already regretting writing this article and we’re not even halfway through— averages about 10 PPG at the RB position.
However, there is one data point in the last six seasons that defies the others. For Doeren (I promised earlier we’d talk about this), he has a RB in his inventory that scored 18 rushing TDs in one season.
That RB, as can be seen above, was a young man named Reggie Gallaspy the Second. Mr. Gallaspy is an outlier in many ways. He’s Doeren’s only 1000-yarder in the last six full seasons, and the only runner to receive more than 140 carries (yeah, he smashed that one).
Upon digging further, things got more interesting. Believe it or not, Doeren’s Wolfpack actually produced three straight 1000-yard rushing seasons between 2016-2018. And I actually think the next name might be the most interesting as it pertains to today’s article: Nyheim Hines, who led NC State in rushing the year prior to Gallaspy.
The reason I say that is because Hines fits the scatback mold, and is similarly sized to Smothers (Hines is listed 5’9, 195, Smothers 5’11, 195). Hines achieved 1100 yards and 12 rushing scores with only 197 carries. He also added 26 receptions and 152 yards.
In 2016 it was Doeren’s heaviest pig of his coaching career that led the Pack in rushing—Matt Dayes, who toted the rock 249 times. Dayes added another 32 receptions just for good measure. That’s how you do it Dave. What the hell happened, buddy? Oh and yes, for those interested, Dayes accumulated over 1300 yards and 10 scores.
Somewhere along the lines things went awry in North Carolina. Things have not been pretty lately when you consider the tailback position of this program. The proof is in the pudding (and this pudding tastes like s***):
The OC, Kurt Roper, has been with Doeren since 2019 in various capacities, and has limited experience as an OC elsewhere. Some of that experience includes serving as the OC at UF (2014) and Duke (2008-2013). There weren’t any notable pigs on any of those teams, unfortunately.
And because my heart is huge and full of love (and because I care deeply about your guys’ CFF success), I even took it upon myself to look at Doeren’s old NIU teams in 2011 and 2012. I can report that there was a lot of rushing success on those teams, however, much of it came via the QB.
In back-to-back years the QB led the team in rushing with over 1000 yards, in fact one QB toted the rock 294(!) times. Think 2012 version of Bryson Dailey. However, 2011’s RB1 finished with 16 total TDs (15 rushing) on only 187 carries. He came up just shy of 1000 yards.
So there are enough examples in Doeren’s history to suggest that when there’s a player worthy, they can receive the requisite workload to turn them into a CFF success story.
In terms of tendencies, I was surprised to find a near even split in run/pass play calls. Doeren’s teams also average a fairly mid tempo offence. NC State returns 46% of the starting snaps along the OL from a year ago.
Daylan Smothers (5’11, 195)
2024 RUSHING STATS: 89 - 571 - 6 (13.6)
Two of the key ingredients in Claiborne’s success last year were 1) the receiving usage was fat and 2) the lack of playmakers around him.
Smothers’ profile is beginning to check both boxes. We know he can catch passes (caught 19 for 263 yards and two scores in 11 games last year), and the expected top competition behind him, Kendrick Raphael, transferred out. That leaves Jayden Scott (three career carries thus far), and somebody named Deandre Desinor (zero career appearances/stats) left behind Smothers.
Furthermore, when looking at the WR core, while there are a few old flames that present some intrigue (Noah Rogers and Wesley Grimes to be specific), there’s not a name that stands out. In fact, I might hazard a guess that this offence will look very much like former NC State OC Robert Anae’s 2022 Syracuse team in 2025.
That Orange outfit was led by hybrid TE/WR Orande Gadsden in receiving (see Justin Joly), and Sean Tucker in rushing.
The QB for the Wolfpack will be in his second year starting, but he’s still inexperienced as he was a true freshman last year. Fun fact: did you know current NCSU QB CJ Bailey threw passes to current OSU WR Jeremiah Smith in high school at Chaminade Madonna Prep?
Trivia aside, Bailey may actually end up being Smothers’ top completion along the ground next year. Just as with that 2022 Syracuse team where QB Garrett Shrader ended up second behind only Tucker, I can envision an outcome where Smothers is sniffing 1000 yards rushing while Bailey settles around 300-400 yards.
Smothers will be entering his third season of CFB this year after starting his career with the Oklahoma Sooners in 2023. He was originally rated a three star prospect coming out of North Carolina, and while some sites list him closer to 185, 247 Sports lists him currently at 195. Either way is fine—he’s not the 250+ carry between the tackles type of player, so there’s some leeway on requisite weight.
And just for shits and giggles, I went and looked at Claiborne’s specs out of curiosity: he’s listed at 5’10, 195 pounds—COINCIDENCE? ◾
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