An Heir Apparent to Ashton Jeanty Has Emerged
Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod is having a good spring, but I wouldn't go all in on his CFF stock just yet.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
-Mark Twain, writer
I’d be surprised if history repeats itself with another Boise State runner topping 2000 yards any time soon; and perhaps worse, there aren’t any other runners in Boise whose last names rhyme with ‘Doak Walker Winner’, so we can scratch that off the list too.
However, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest that there will be at least one productive runner replacing Ashton Jeanty. Maybe even one who emerges as an Ashton Jeanty-lite type of CFF asset (well, one can dream).
Malik Sherrod is a transfer RB from Fresno State. Sherrod—like so many college football players these days—is entering his sixth season of college ball.
I should say that today’s article is going to be a little different than usual. When looking at the Boise State program as a whole, a realization that the pattern of production at the RB position supersedes any individual runner or staff becomes apparent.
Between the years 2009 and 2024—a time span including multiple different coaching staffs—the BSU Broncos produced 14 campaigns with a 1000+ yard rusher out of 16 seasons. The only two exceptions being 2020 and 2021. And to be fair, the COVID season doesn’t really count, so that’s only one season out of the last 15 years where this program failed to produce a 1000-yard back.
That pattern is absolutely unreal. I mean, seriously, I don’t think there’s a better pattern in the CFF ecosystem anywhere else currently. It’s not even staff-dependent, which is arguably the best part. Though it is also somewhat precarious. After all, brick walls and professors don’t call plays. So what the hell is going on here?
I suppose—similar to Wisconsin in the 2000/2010s—there is an institutional philosophy regarding how the football program should look, coming from someone at the top (maybe the AD), and this philosophy is reflected through the hiring of the coaches. Or perhaps it’s simply just the tradition of the program—which every new hire understands upon entry into the BSU football program.
Indeed, the current head coach was himself an internal hire. Ditto for the current OC, Dirk Koetter, who served on the staff from 1998 to 2000, and then again as an analyst in 2022 before being elevated to the role of interim head coach between the firing of Andy Avalos and Spencer Danielson being promoted.
The pessimistic view would suggest that while the overall pattern over the last 16 years is a strong one, it’s within the last five seasons where the two duds in that sample occurred. And then there was Ashton Jeanty, who is an anomaly in more ways than one. So the direction of the backfield in 2025 is less clear than originally thought.
This view is emboldened by the fact that the BSU backfield in 2025 is a crowded one. It would have already been somewhat of a logjam even without Sherrod, as names like Sire Gaines, Jambres Dubar, and now even Dylan Riley are all exciting prospects in their own right. Especially the redshirt freshman Gaines, who was the RB2 behind Jeanty last year before succumbing to a mystery injury.
Nobody seems to know what exactly the nature of the ailment is beyond the generic ‘lower body’ injury tag, which could mean an ankle or knee (the latter would be bad news for Gaines’ 2025 CFF stock considering the timeline of the injury). Dubar was also AWOL for large swaths of spring camp, but did finally participate in a scrimmage in late April.
Sherrod, on the other hand, has been available and he’s been killing it all spring; ironic considering that 1) Sherrod has been plagued by injury his whole career and 2) he’s listed as the smallest of all the RBs mentioned. Before further diving into the backfield hierarchy, let’s take a closer look at the staff.
Coaching & System
RB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 35.1 — OC1: 26 — OC2: 31.11 (half ppr)
Head coach Spencer Danielson has spent his entire collegiate coaching tenure serving in some capacity at Boise State. Last year was his first as head coach. Previously he served as the defensive coordinator for BSU from 2019 to 2023. And before that he was an analyst and DE position coach for the Broncos (2017-2018).
Dirk Koetter, the OC, is the opposite. He’s spent most of his coaching tenure in the NFL, travelling through stops at Atlanta (2012-2014, 2019-2020), Tampa Bay (2015-2018), and Jacksonville (2007-2011).
It’s somewhat odd that he was sequestered in the southeast pocket of the US for his entire NFL tenure given that his background is from the northwest. He played QB at Idaho State in the 70s, then served as OC at UTEP, Missouri, Boston College and Oregon between the years 1986 and 1998, before joining the BSU Broncos for the first time as head coach.
So suffice it to say this is a tenured professor at this point. And we haven’t even gotten into his experience in the 2000s yet. I won’t keep the reader in suspense: shortly after taking over as head coach at BSU, Koetter took over in the same capacity at Arizona State (2001-2007).
Personally, I’m always of the mind that NFL patterns aren’t all that relevant to CFF, so I won’t touch that today. When looking at Koetter’s last CFB stop that wasn’t BSU—ASU in the 2000s—I can’t find numbers from the 2001-2003 seasons, but in the four seasons between 2004 and 2007, only one ASU squad produced a 200+ carry/1000 yard rusher.
Koetter rejoined the program in 2022 as an offensive analyst, and then took over as the interim OC later that season. In 2024 he was officially given the title of OC and he retained that role into 2025.
Unfortunately, there are not a lot of numbers to glean over with regard to Danielson/Koetter’s play-calling data over the last five years. Hence, the PPG numbers are completely skewed by Ashton Jeanty, which is going to give people unrealistic expectations of this backfield for 2025.
I would imagine 2025 will shake out sort of like how the 2022 season went. A runner finishing with a PPG average around 17-20 still feels within reach despite the logjam at RB.
As far as tendencies go, as usually happens when there are only two seasons of sample data and one season of overlap, the numbers of both coaches are tightly aligned. They both average a run rate of around 58%. The Broncos averaged 69 plays per game last season under Koetter and 66 plays per game in 2022 when he took over as interim OC. Both of those numbers are fairly average in the FBS.
Something that is noteworthy for the CFF-inclined reader is that BSU returns 80% of the starting snaps from a year ago from what was a dominant offensive line.
And I know, I know, "dominant" is an overused word in sports media nowadays, but when you watch Jeanty’s highlights, it’s not just that he was an above-average talent in that league; the big boys up front were road grading everything in front of them. Barring something crazy, this is probably going to continue in 2025.
Malik Sherrod (5’8, 177)
2024 RUSHING STATS: 60 - 196 - 4 (13.8 PPG)2
Sherrod was very good at Fresno State, in particular during his fourth season with the program in 2023. He dealt with injury to start the year, allowing Elijah Gilliam to run point, but then he took over almost immediately upon his return in late September 2023.
He finished the year with 966 yards and nine scores on 172 carries in 12 games. He was used frequently as a receiver, catching 44 of his 51 targets for 260 yards and another score. Overall, he averaged 19.4 PPG (his career-best so far) in full PPR formats that season.
He was off to a good start this year before—stop me if you’ve heard this before—injury cut his season short. A week one dud vs. Michigan was expected, but then he rattled off two performances of 22 and 17 points vs. Sacramento State and New Mexico State. He even managed to score a TD on only nine carries vs. UNLV before his season ended indefinitely.
One immediate reason why drafters should temper expectations when acquiring Sherrod, even if he is RB1 at BSU, is that his slight frame and injury history make him a risk to miss significant time, or at the very least, may prompt the staff to ease off on the volume when they can.
BSU head coach Spencer Danielson hinted at the latter part of that sentence earlier this spring:
“We’re going to play with a lot of different running backs,” said Boise State coach Spencer Danielson.
“That’s something I believe in. I want to be able to roll guys. Does that mean even playing with two guys at running back in the game at one time time? Absolutely, it does.
We’re going to find ways for guys that earn it to be out there a lot. There’s going to be a starter, there’s going to be someone behind him. That doesn’t mean one guy’s going to play and someone else isn’t, but we want the competition turned up. We got a really good group in there.”
So who might be some of the other names besides Sherrod absorbing carries in 2025? If you’ve been following along the spring game updates, you’ll recognize this text:
Sophomore Dylan Riley was one of several running backs who impressed on Saturday, scoring two touchdowns to lead a running back room that he described as “really hot.”
Riley ended the game with just 20 rushing yards, but he had a 47-yard touchdown run chalked off because of a holding call. He still capped that drive off with a 2-yard touchdown run and was used extensively in the red zone.
“Dylan Riley has had a really good spring,” Danielson said. “And what is sometimes overlooked, he’s had a great spring offensively, but he’s going to be an impact player for us on our special teams unit too.” Riley had nine carries, tying with junior Jambres Dubar (41 yards) for the most in the game.
However, the most exciting moment of the day came from sixth-year Malik Sherrod, a recent transfer to the program from Fresno State. Sherrod opened the scoring with a 65-yard touchdown, weaving through the defense before breaking into the open backfield.
Sherrod ended with 76 rushing yards off just three carries, as well as four receiving yards on one catch.
“He’s an explosive player, and he’s even going to be a more explosive player on punt return and kickoff return,” Danielson said. “Very excited where he’s at.”
The drumbeat on Sherrod appears steady as there was another positive update from an earlier spring scrimmage:
RB’s Sire Gaines and Breezy Dubar did not participate. Malik Sherrod impressed.
Speaking of Gaines, I think we have to address the elephant in the room. We’re at that point in the offseason where I think it’s fair to be concerned about Gaines’ injury/return timeline.
He clearly hasn’t been participating in spring camp so far, and the fact that we don’t have a definitive update on what his actual injury is only adds to the uncertainty. We only know that it is a lower body ailment, which could mean ankle or knee, as mentioned in the intro. We did, however, receive (sort of) an update in mid-April from Danielson, suggesting that Gaines should be cleared to practice in June.
I think for now, I’m going to keep it simple in who I target in this backfield; Sherrod has been available and impressing the staff all spring, whereas Gaines—typically the first BSU runner taken in drafts currently—is a complete question mark at the moment.
Breezy Dubar (otherwise known as Jambres) is a good buy-low candidate right now in best ball drafts. The reasons being: 1) he’s got tenure in the program, looked good early, and is now healthy; and 2) both Gaines and Sherrod are either injured or have a pattern of injury, so if Gaines isn’t ready to roll and Sherrod gets injured, then there would be tremendous upside available via either Dubar or rising sophomore Dylan Riley.
Currently, I’d prioritize Sherrod, followed by Gaines, Dubar, and then Riley in that order for best ball drafts. Until we see Gaines back and playing, Sherrod seems like the clear #1 to me (see the image below in case you’re wondering if I put my money where my mouth is)… ◾
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