Big Blue's New Five Star: Justice Haynes
The Wolverines' three-season streak of thousand yarders ended last year; is there a runner on the roster capable of commanding the lion's share of volume in '25?
Who’s got it better than us?
- Jim Harbaugh, football coach
I generally try to keep my individual fandom out of these types of articles, but today’s player demands some additional context. As a fan of the Dawgs, and an avid follower of their recruiting, I’ve been following Michigan’s latest transfer, Justice Haynes, for quite some time.
Haynes was a bellcow RB at Roswell Blessed Trinity Catholic, which is a suburban school in the Atlanta metro. He is a UGA legacy; his father, Veron, played for the Dawgs in the late 90s/early 2000s.
Throughout his recruitment it felt like Justice was a lock to the in-state school. He’d received multiple forecasts from ‘recruiting experts’ and had visited campus more times than anyone could count. He also had a best friend at a nearby local school in the same class, Caleb Downs, who had a similar list of schools of interest.
Haynes shocked everyone when he announced out of nowhere in July before his senior season that he'd committed to Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide, the team that UGA had just beaten to win Kirby’s first Natty.
Though it wasn’t all a surprise. Some inquisitive Dawg fans pointed to Haynes’ transfer of high schools the spring before his senior year; a move that brought him to what can only be described as one of the most infamous institutions in Atlanta. That place was Buford High School, in the east Atlanta metro. I won’t go into the backstory here but Dawg fans will understand why this move may have been a bad omen.
Years went by, and fans started asking: what ever happened to that Haynes kid? He failed to make a meaningful mark with the Tide like his friend Downs. However, similar to Downs, Haynes eventually decided to transfer to a B1G program, this time the destination was Michigan.
It’s sort of an ironic move, as Michigan would have had a good view of Haynes in the 2023 CFP game against the Tide; and they would have gotten another view this year as both teams faced off against each other once more, but Haynes had already announced his move up North and did not participate in the game.
When the move was first announced, I loved the fit. Michigan has a tradition of running the football, and up until this past season, had a three-season streak of 1000-yarders at the tailback position dating back to Hassan Haskins in 2021. However, then the bowl game happened, and I re-familiarized myself with a player that I also liked coming out of high school—Cincinnati’s Jordan Marshall.
Marshall looked Blake Corum-esque, toting the rock 23 times for a nice total of 100 yards on the day. The performance introduced some doubt that Haynes would be the undisputed bellcow for this team in 2025, especially given that—although I liked him a lot in high school—we don’t really know how good he is because he hasn’t played that much in college.
In two seasons, Haynes had one game surpassing 100 yards rushing (vs. WKU). Marshall did it in his first start. Granted, Haynes has yet to see 20+ carries (his high is 13) like Marshall had vs. Alabama. And sure, Alabama was volatile this season and probably didn’t bring their ‘A’ game vs. Michigan, but it really can’t be overstated just how impressive Marshall’s performance was in his first extended action of his collegiate career.
Despite the lack of prior production, Haynes will be a hot name amongst the CFF crowd this offseason. Is that attention warranted? Let’s take a deeper look…
Coaching & System
RB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 19.4 — OC: 17.021 (half ppr)
Sherrone Moore was promoted from offensive coordinator to head coach last offseason when Jim Harbaugh bolted (pun intended) to the NFL. His latest hire, Chip Lindsey, comes over by way of UNC. The Tarheels fielded one of the strongest running attacks this past season led by junior runner Omarion Hampton.
Hampton saw exceptional rushing volume (60% carry share during the 2024 season in Table 1. below) this past season. He averaged over 23 carries per game, and he finished the year as one of the most productive RBs in CFB.
So, the fit certainly looks snug here at Michigan. We know the Wolverines want to run the football. However, I’d expect that they will be tweaking the offence somewhat this offseason to feature the passing game a little bit more relative to the past several years. I don’t know… it’s just a feeling I have.
Nonetheless, I’d still expect a heavy dosage of run plays à la IHOP Saturday specials this upcoming season. Obviously, that would be good news for the RB position, but it only really matters if there’s one who sees the lion’s share of carries.
With both coaches averaging around 45% carry share for their RB1s over the last handful of seasons, that notion feels likely. But it’s also hard to imagine one of Haynes or Marshall not being heavily involved next season also. Maybe Michigan runs it enough where one runner sees 250 carries, the other closer to 150. Marshall is still a sophomore after all, so he’s got at least another year regardless.
The play calling tendencies of both coaches shouldn’t be surprising. Moore’s average since 2021 is a 60/40 split in favour of the ground game. Lindsey is more balanced, with a 52/48 split in the same direction.
The pacing of the offences is where these coaches differ quite a bit. Moore runs a slow, methodical system, averaging almost 29 seconds per play, which would put them among the lower third of the FBS in most seasons. Lindsey is on the opposite end of the spectrum. His offences Auburn, Troy, UCF and UNC average closer to 23 seconds per play, which is on the faster end of the FBS spectrum. This will be an interesting tension to monitor in the offence for 2025.
Justice Haynes (5’11, 210)
2024 STATS: 79 - 448 - 7 (9.6 PPG)
While Haynes has yet to be a bellcow style RB in college, he was what the kids say a “volume pig” immediately in high school. In the ninth grade, Haynes toted the rock 205 times in 15 games, then 176 in nine games the following year, 275 carries as an 11th grader, and 153 carries as a senior at Buford, where he split work with other elite prospects. That’s a lot of carries before the runner even touches down on campus, let alone gets to the NFL.
Naturally, that might mean Haynes was looking for a more complimentary arrangement where he could be a featured player, but not the featured player in the offence.
Beyond the numbers, he was a member of 247 Sports’ ‘Freak List’ in 2023, and also played baseball at an elite level in high school. This is what Gabe Brooks had to say about Haynes coming out of high school:
Requisite size and frame for three-down running back prospect. Slightly longer than tall with space to add good mass.
Plays quick-footed, loose-hipped, and with good leverage. Runs with encouraging body lean. Shrinks target as necessary but also plays bigger than listed size. Excellent contact balance with run strength and finishing demeanor to power for extra yards.
Flashes impressive suddenness and short-area burst, whether linear or laterally. Displays good explosion out of cuts at multiple levels. Particularly dangerous in subtle second-level redirections, accelerating out of those cuts to produce big plays.
Best exploding downhill or out of one-cut situations, but also more than capable to string together moves to maximize yards. Highest gear may not match top speed of other elite backs, but does not top out quickly. Accelerates with urgency and continues to build speed beyond the second level. Top-end speed has improved year-over-year.
Enormous production through junior year with almost 5,900 rushing yards on 8.95 per carry. Possesses a two-sport profile that includes baseball. Strong football pedigree as the son of a 2002 NFL fifth-round running back selection.
Will arrive in college with significant mileage from four seasons of full-time high school duties. Lacks ideal context relative to verified athleticism / speed with no track data and very limited combine testing. Limited pass-catching context with fewer than 20 total receptions in first three seasons.
Particularly high-floor running back prospect with physical tools and functional athleticism on the field to develop into a legitimate NFL Draft prospect. Projects to the high-major level as a potential multi-year impact starter.
Closing
Overall, I feel similarly about this backfield this offseason as I did last. I’m not sure I’m going to value Haynes high enough to acquire him, as his fans in the CFF world will be drafting him high like they did Donovan Edwards last year. Jordan Marshall looks more like the Kalel Mullings commodity in this situation and may be a smart zag where everyone else zigs.
I can see a scenario where both are relevant in the CFF context sort of similarly to what happened with Edwards and Mullings in 2024. In which case, you probably want to be the guy who drafts the second one, preferably much later than wherever the first gets drafted.
Haynes is an exciting player for 2025, especially in this system, but I don’t think I want to be the one expending a high round pick on him. I’d much rather wait and draft Marshall, who is likely to be a much cheaper option across all formats, and is not very distinguishable from Haynes at the present moment. ◾
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Sample of 2018-2024 excluding 2020.
Hope he emerges as THE RB1 for Big Blue and A RB1 for CFF. Have him on a dynasty roster (along with Joyner and Feagin) — losing Hampton, Harvey, Anderson, and James! 😬