BYU's LJ Martin Will be a 300-Touch Player This Season
Or at least, something close to it...
In the end of time, there was a man who knew the road. And the writing was written on the stone.
- Dewey Finn, School of Rock (2003)
Earlier this offseason I began sifting through the practice notes of all 134 FBS programs to put together the monthly round-up articles. When I got to BYU, my primary concern was: how's the QB competition going?
What I found via lurking on message boards was that the sentiment doesn’t appear to be very peachy right now. Long-time CFB veteran and retirement league specialist, Gerry Bohanon, as well as somebody named Jake Retzlaff are the primary combatants for the throne. That spells trouble for BYU’s 2024 outlook if you ask me. Here is a snippet from a BYU beat report on the matter:
Well, folks, everyone is a little concerned about the quarterback position - and they should be. The Cougars are going into the season with a quarterback who touts an 0-4 record, a 50% career completion percentage, seven career fumbles (three lost) and a perfect 1:1 TD:INT ratio, and another quarterback who hasn't thrown a pass in a college football game since October 2022.
That's not great, Bob!
Coming out of spring, we are giving the starting nod to Retzlaff. He has had a strong spring. He still needs to work on some of his simple things - swing passes, snap exchanges, and simple decision making. He has talent and can do some really good things on the football field, but consistency has been a problem up to this point in his career.
Bohanon needs to get more familiar with the BYU offense before he can make a real run at a starting position. Theoretically, that should be doable this summer. He has some exposure to this offense from his time at Baylor, but there are enough wrinkles at BYU that he needs to do get some exposure before he's handed the keys to the car.
The quarterback situation isn't great, there is no two ways about it. Both Retzlaff and Bohanon can play well enough to win games, but they're going to have to make serious strides in consistency before anyone feels really confident that BYU makes it back to a bowl game.
Confidence Level For The Year: 3.4/10
3.4… yeah, that’s definitely not great, Bob. But at least it wasn’t a rookie score (one over the hill QB and a future insurance salesman, everybody knows the rules).
Thankfully, there is a man on staff who knows the road to (CFF) success. As the writing may be written on the stone (wall) with this QB room, there is a rising sophomore RB who saw a ton of reps last year as a true freshman, and an OC who has an extensive history of pig farming in the great state of Utah. Aaron Rodrick is his name, and he’s been the OC of the Cougars since 2021. We’ll get to him shortly.
His running back— LJ Martin, was an exceptionally productive player in Texas high school football, and his NFL-ready frame allowed him to carry that production into his first year in college.
Now—in the absence of any late offseason transfer news—we find ourselves looking at a program that is essentially a breeding ground for a Dewey Finn-level pig to emerge in 2024. Poor options at QB generally spells only one outcome for the RBs.
And, while it sounds like QB is a pressing need, the scholarship situation may limit the Cougars’ ability to act here. From a BYU beat writer:
BYU just doesn't have a whole lot of room for a quarterback out of the portal. The Cougars could still lose one or two to the portal, but unless those are scholarship players, it's hard to find space for one more addition. We'll be watching for attrition in the second half of the month, but if it doesn't come, there is no reason to get your hopes up that BYU makes a run.
“Oh gods of CFB, thank you for this opportunity to kick ass” is what CFF players should be saying right now.
Let us begin today’s song where we usually do…
Coaching & System
RB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 13.7 — OC: 16.31
Perhaps one of Aaron Roderick’s greatest accomplishments as a coach is convincing NFL teams that his 2020 QB1 Zach Wilson was a franchise QB in the NFL. Well, I suppose there’s still time for that to materialize. However, I don’t think even ARod is capable of salvaging the mess that is the current BYU QB group. Things are almost as dire as that time when Jack Black got caught for impersonating a substitute teacher at Horace Green Preparatory School—except, there won’t be any Hollywood magic to save the day here.
Roderick has been a valuable member of the Cougars’ staff since 2017. He initially joined as an ‘offensive consultant’ and then was promoted to QBs coach in 2018. In 2021, he was officially elevated to the role of OC.
Head coach Kalani Sitake has been with the BYU Cougars since 2016. His background is on defence, so he most likely hasn’t been involved in calling the plays on offence. Even still, there is a solid track record of volume pigs at the tailback position during his time in Provo, which I do think is relevant.
While this past season’s aggregate stats for the RB1 certainly won’t wow you (LJ Martin averaged 9.7 PPG in 1PPR formats), you have to keep in mind that it was a transition year for the backfield, as the presumed starter in the offseason, Aiden Robbins, dealt with constant injury, and LJ Martin was in his true freshman season. Martin finished the year with a very respectable 518 yards and four scores on 109 carries over 10 games. He also caught 11 of his 13 targets for 45 yards and another score.
2022’s squad didn’t produce an exceptionally productive RB either, but Cal transfer Christopher Brooks did have a solid season, rushing 130 times for 817 yards and six scores, plus 10 receptions for 98 yards receiving (12.5 PPG).
However, in 2021 the Cougars’ lead back— Tyler Allgeier, had an exceptionally strong season. During that campaign, Allgeier rushed 276 times for 1606 yards and 23 TDs, and added 28 receptions for 199 yards receiving. Those numbers would account for approximately 26 PPG over a 13 game season.
In 11 games during the COVID season in 2020, Allgeier rushed 150 times for 1130 yards and 13 TDs, with another 174 yards coming through the air on 14 receptions. These numbers come out to approximately 20 PPG.
Then there is a bit of a gap to the next notable performance. In 2016, Jamaal Williams rushed 234 times for 1375 yards and 12 TDs, and caught seven passes for 80 yards in 10 games (22.4 PPG).
As mentioned, the OC Aaron Roderick has been with BYU since 2018, but in 2015 and 2016 he was the co-OC of Utah, after spending several seasons in various position coach roles for the Utes from 2010-2014.
During the two seasons where Roderick held the title of OC for the Utes, Joe Williams carried the rock 210 times for 1407 yards and 10 TDs, and caught nine passes for 107 yards in nine games in 2016 (24.4 PPG). Devontae Booker rushed 268 times for 1261 yards and 11 TDs, with an additional 37 catches for 318 yards in 10 games in 2015 (26 PPG).
If you’re keeping score at home, Roderick’s RB1 during his seasons as an OC have averaged 26, 24.4, 26, 12.5, 9.7 PPG, or more generally: 19.7 PPG on average over five seasons dating back to his time at Utah. If we combine Sitake’s numbers, you’re looking at closer to 20.1 PPG on average for the RB1 in this offence.
I think what skews the perception about this backfield is that lately the numbers have been trending down for two seasons in a row. However, I think that has more to do with the talent in the room—or lack thereof—during those seasons.
As far as tendencies, both Sitake and Roderick’s squads have been fairly balanced over a sample size dating back to 2018, averaging around a 52/48 run-pass split. The pace of their offences tends to be fairly average. In 2023, BYU finished 66th in seconds per play run with 26. However, in 2021 and 2019 they moved much faster with 22.2 and 24.6 seconds per play, respectively.
LJ Martin — 6’2, 210
2023 STATS: 109-518-4 (9.7 PPG)
Martin was a super producer at the high school level in West Texas. As a senior (2022), he was named to the TSWA Class 5A First-Team All-State, eclipsing 1,900 rushing yards and tallying 17 rushing touchdowns. In 2021, Martin ran for over 2,700 yards, which ranked in the top five in Texas.
The former four-star originally committed to Stanford during the 2023 cycle, but flipped late to BYU after David Shaw’s firing. He was already on my watchlist as a true freshman last offseason, but then the quote from Roderick was just the cherry on top. From a 2023 BYU beat report:
LJ Martin is a standout in camp so far . . . He's one of the best players on this team. He will play this year. He's a very good football player... I try not to get too excited about freshman sometimes. But he's already proven that he's going to be a player for us this season.
Admittedly, though I was high on Martin this offseason, I wasn’t expecting him to make much of an impact in year one. I drafted him in a dynasty league I’m in, but suspected that he’d be—at best—the RB2 behind transfer Aidan Robbins.
Due to some fortunate injury luck, Martin accelerated past my expected timeline, as he was named the starting RB before BYU’s week three contest vs. SEC opponent Arkansas. In that game, he carried the rock 23 times for 77 yards and two scores; he also caught two passes on two targets for 11 yards (22.8 points).
He would then go on to carry the football double digit times over the next four games, scoring 10.8, 19, 11.5 and 10 points over that span. He fizzled out against Iowa State in early November and then finished the year with five carries total over his last two games.
If my memory serves correctly, Martin himself was banged up down the stretch. And, like so many true freshmen, he was probably not physically developed enough to take on the volume he was getting for a full 12 game season.
But now we’re in year two in the program for the former Texas high school standout, and his primary competition for carries has moved on. Here’s a snippet from the same beat report quoted above:
BYU feels a lot better about their running back room than fans might think they would be at first glance. Martin is the obvious starter, there is no question about that.
He had a strong true freshman campaign and is ready to build on that success this year. He has transformed his body and is more physically prepared to handle the rigors of a college football season. There is a lot of reason for BYU fans to feel confident in what Martin brings to the table. He can really play.
Confidence Level For The Year: 8.8/10
That’s a glowing endorsement indeed, and that makes two off-seasons in a row now for Martin’s buzz. With so many nuclear warning signs here, Provo might have to change its name to Chernobyl for the year of 2024 (and potentially 2025). In fact, the Cougs are going to be pounding the rock so hard this season BYU might want to consider changing its name to…. *drum roll*… The School of Rock.
Closing & Concerns
Despite the fact that BYU returns about 61% of the snaps from a year ago along the OL, it appears that the staff would like to add some bodies there via the portal. We’ll see what happens there, but either way, there isn’t an obvious red flag here at OL. Sure, the unit could have been better last year, but the continuity returning tends to lead to some improvement.
The overall potency of the offence is more of a question mark, since it sounds like the QB play will be pretty poor in 2024. That’s good in the sense that it’ll lead to an emphasis on the ground game, presumably leading to more carries for LJ, but potentially bad in the sense that the Cougars could end up trailing in a lot of games, which would force them to pass.
It could also be detrimental in the sense that if BYU can’t move the ball consistently, LJ could struggle to find scoring opportunities. However, I would say that these are more-so downstream concerns, and not something I weigh heavily in my valuation of LJ.
In addition to the QB position being a question mark, the WR room (apparently) lacks a game-breaker as well:
There is not a single receiver on the roster who is capable of being the breakout NFL star like Puka Nacua has been. If we're honest with ourselves, there probably isn't a receiver like Dax Milne on this team either. What this team does have, though, is a whole bunch of wide receivers who are capable of going off on any given week.
Again, this information reinforces the belief that LJ Martin and the ground game are going to be relied on heavily to catalyze the offensive production in 2024.
If the runner himself was not a notable talent, then that would limit the optimism here. But, in our case Martin is clearly (based on reports) an above average level talent that BYU does not typically have at that position; and he is in an environment that is likely to present a substantial amount of opportunities for him to succeed. That’s usually a winning formula in CFF. ◾
These numbers are derived from a subscriber’s model— Joe Arpasi. The data pulls from a 2018-2023 sample, 0.5 PPR measurement.
This is excellent stuff guys!