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CFF DFS - Week Nine: Pigs Get Fed, Hogs Get Slaughtered
This article highlights Four PrizePicks lines that VP likes ahead of Week Nine.
Van Helsing: “Mr. Morris, your bullets will not harm him. He must be beheaded. I suggest you use your big Bowie knife.”
Quincey P. Morris: “Well, I wasn't plannin' on getting that close, Doc.”
- Bram Stoker’s Dracula (1992)
We’re continuing the tradition of publishing DFS content every other week(ish) today with a focus on PrizePicks O/Us once again. True to form last time, the first four bets all cleared, and then the second four did not. So, accordingly, I’ve decided to just choose four today in hopes that that will help. On the other hand, maybe it will now just be the case that the first two clear… I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
For your reference, here is the link to the last DFS PrizePicks article I published two weeks ago:
(UGA) RB Daijun Edwards under 83.5 rush yards vs. UF — Daijun Edwards has been the bellcow of the Bulldogs for most of the 2023 season, but that has been out of necessity, not design. Speaking as someone who follows the program closely, I know that the staff would prefer to not have one RB see 15+ carries a game. The word is that Kendall Milton is returning to full health for Saturday’s game vs. UF, and I’d expect them to share the workload more than has been transpiring recently. As such, I’m skeptical that Edwards will clear this mark. I also think Bobo and Co. will be intent on showing everyone that their pass game is going to continue humming with or without Bowers, potentially also reducing Edwards’ rush usage.
(FAU) WR LaJohntay Wester over 80.5 receiving yards vs. UNCC — One of the most under-the-radar players who’s been absolutely killing it this season is FAU’s LaJohntay Wester. Wester has gone over 97 yards receiving in five of his seven games so far, only failing to reach that mark vs. UTSA last week, and in a blowout in Week One vs. FCS program Monmouth. UNCC’s defence is actually not bad, in particular their stats vs. the pass are pretty good (38th nationally in pass yards against). But they’ve also been a team that’s been trailing in most of their games, so they’ve likely been getting a steady diet of runs in the second halves of their contests. On sheer volume alone (Wester averages 12.14 targets per game), I think Wester is due for a bounce back performance this week and I’m not dissuaded by UNCC’s apparent strength of defence. Wester’s also averaging 90.9 receiving yards per game currently. As far as I can tell, there are no weather concerns ahead of this game in Charlotte.
(GaSo) WR Khaleb Hood over 7 REC — Hood’s another high volume target man in his offence. He averages 11.57 targets, and 8.14 catches per game. In this play, if he catches an even 7, it will be denoted as a push and the bettor would be refunded. So essentially, the loss clause here is if Hood catches 6 or less passes in tonight’s game vs. Georgia State. You’d have to go back all the way to Week One to find a game where Hood’s receptions would have failed to clear this mark (he caught five vs. Citadel in a blowout). While I believe GA State is the better team, the line from Vegas is actually set at -1 in favour of GaSo. The O/U is set at 62.5, so this is expected to be a high-flying affair.
(OU) WR Drake Stoops over 5 REC — Stoops sees heavy target volume in that OU offence week-in-week-out. In his last five games, he’s caught 8, 6, 5, 4, and 7 passes and has seen 8, 7, 7, 8 and 9 targets. With a matchup vs. Kansas incoming, it feels less likely that he will fail to reach at least 5 receptions (which would result in a push), rather than hit that mark or more. There is expected to be some rain on Saturday in Manhattan, but a player like Stoops does most of his work underneath anyways (8.8 ypc), so I don’t know that that really scares me much for this play.
Before concluding, I feel like I should add the typical disclaimer: these are just some lines that intrigue me as good plays this week. Ultimately, the decision is up to the reader on whether or not they take action.
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