CFF Targets - Big year incoming for Mississippi State playmaker?
CFF Targets - Big year incoming for Mississippi State playmaker?
New OC Kevin Barbay is bringing a new flavour to the Bulldogs this season, and that could benefit one of its top returning players
For all the articles I’ve written so far on VolumePigs, I have to say there is a staggeringly low amount of SEC focused topics. That’s pretty consistent with my drafting in CFF, too. Despite being a huge fan of SEC football, I find often that there are usually not as many appealing CFF assets in the Southeastern Conference ranks. This is the conference of elite defensive players, specifically, elite big defensive players that you rarely find elsewhere. That’s part of what sets the conference apart and is a big reason why it generally has the top programs in college football (CFB).
However, today we are going to feature an offensive player by way of Starkville, Mississippi. The Bulldogs got an early (or late) Christmas present last January when Marks announced that he would be returning for another season. His return was especially important in light of Dillon Johnson's departure to Washington, and the regime change due to former head coach Mike Leach’s unfortunate passing.
Under Leach, Marks was often used as much as a receiver as he was a traditional runner. This made for some interesting stat lines. It was not uncommon for Marks to finish games with 5 carries and 7 receptions on 9 targets. I wasn’t a huge fan of this type of usage. Call me traditional (or conservative) but I prefer my runners to hit 20+ touches a game with at least 15 of those being carries. Maybe I wouldn’t of had as much of a problem with Marks in the past had he actually averaged closer to 20 touches a game. In 2022, he averaged just over 13 touches (15.6 FPG in 1-ppr). In 2021 (his best CFF season), he averaged 14.5 touches (17.4 FPG). That’s better in terms of volume, but still not what we want. Something that is encouraging is that his efficiency as a runner increased dramatically from 2021 to 2022: Marks’ YPC average went from 3.9 to 5.2. So we know he can be effective as a traditional runner.
I don’t know how many of you out there reading this article are familiar with statistical prediction tools like regression models, but if you are, my stance is that when it comes to the RB position, I will hazard a guess that the FP score is best predicted by the number of carries and/or touches that player receives. That is — it is most likely the case that the greatest predictor of whether a runner scores 20 points or more is whether the runner sees 20 or more touches in that game. Hence the emphasis on volume in the title of this publication. So the first question we’re really asking today with respect to Marks is: do we have enough evidence to make the argument that Marks is going to see 20 touches or more a game next season? We might come to the conclusion that there is a lack of evidence for this argument, which is fine — and it doesn’t necessarily mean he holds no value in CFF. It would just mean I don’t see the argument that he will be an elite CFF RB in 2023. He could be a solid contributor (15 and 17 FPG averages the last two seasons is not bad at all…).
However, when I am assessing RBs for my roster in standard CFF re-draft leagues, the question I start with is: can I reasonably assume that this player will average 20+ FPG by season’s end (basically this question is considering the evidence for the player to see 20 touches a game); or in the case of Group of Five (G5) players: will they average that in conference play? Of course, not every player I draft and/or roster will end up meeting this criteria, but that is where I start in my assessment of RBs; a big part of that equation is the system and tendencies of the play caller, so let’s get into to it.
Coaching & System
Former Mississippi State (MSST) defensive coordinator Zach Arnett is the man tasked with taking over from the Pirate (RIP). He’s been with the Bulldogs since 2020 in various defensive capacities, and his background throughout his career is defence. So we won’t spend time looking through his track record as it is probably irrelevant.
His new OC — Kevin Barbay, by way of App State and CMU is more intriguing. He’s been trading off Lew Nichols’ vaunted 2021 season in CFF circles for a few years now. But are there other notable seasons under his watch?
His last season at App State (2022) was a complete committee. Six different RBs scored at least 2 TDs and ran for over 100 yards on the season. The leading rusher — Nate Noel, only accumulated 604 yards, and only one player (Camerun Peoples) saw over 100 carries. Jeez, with a name like ‘Camerun’ that kid was just destined to be a running back, wasn’t he?
The season before, as mentioned, was a prolific CFF campaign for CMU’s lead runner Lew Nichols. With Barbay as OC, Lew finished the season with 341 carries for 1848(!) yards and 16 TDs on the ground. He also caught 40 passes for another 338 yards and 2 TDs. That’s an average of 29.3 touches a game over 13 games (28 FPG). That’s phenomenal usage. Indeed, I think I can make the argument that if you gave any FBS player 29 touches per game on offence, it would be a feat for them not to score over 20 FPG.
The season prior was the COVID season. That was a shortened season, and also a very weird season. So I generally throw these numbers out when I’m looking at patterns. However, I do think it’s relevant to point out that CMU split carries between Nichols and Kobe Lewis.
In 2019, something interesting happens. Barbay’s first season as OC at CMU he splits carries between Jonathan Ward and Kobe Lewis; yet, both players still go over 1000 yards. Ward also caught 34 passes for 329 yards and a score. Lewis caught 23 passes for 164. On average, Ward saw just over 17 touches a game (~22.8 FPG), but that includes a game vs. Wisconsin where he had 1 carry and 1 reception (likely leaving due to injury, as he missed the following two weeks that season). Without that game, he is closer to 19 touches per game despite being in a timeshare.
Now you know my stance on timeshares. Sure, the averages might look okay in the end but on a game-by-game basis there can be large fluctuations in scores — that’s a no-no for me. So I took a look at Ward’s game log from that season. It turns out he only went scoreless in two games (including that Wisconsin game), and in the other he still went for over 100 yards on the ground with another 21 via the air. His score would have netted around 13 FPs that game. Within the CFF scoring period (he played 10 games), he only failed to rush for 100+ yards three times (3 yards vs. Wisconsin, 64 vs. Buffalo, 88 vs. Toledo). His game vs. Buffalo still would have scored over 20 FPs when considering his TDs and receiving usage.
Why am I spending so much time on this 2019 season? Well, it’s because it indicates to me that even if Barbay’s tendency is towards a two-headed committee, his RB1A can still be a potent CFF asset not only in terms of averages but on a game-by-game basis — which is what is actually important. Sure, there is the 2021 season but that looks more like an outlier than the norm, and so I don’t think that I will suggest that Barbay’s presence means 300+ touches is imminent for Marks.
That being said — while on the topic of patterns — it is often the case that those RBs who average 15-20 FPG as the RB1A/B or RB2 with another runner, become great CFF assets when their committee mate leaves (that’s what happened with Lew Nichols in 2021 when Lewis went down for the season). Such is the case for Marks this season as well, as Dillon Johnson departed in the offseason.
Jo’quavious Marks — 5’10, 205
An Atlanta boy, Marks signed with MSST in the 2020 class, joining what was — at the time — a program undergoing an air-raid facelift with the Pirate incoming. Marks’ skillset lended well to what the Bulldogs wanted to do on offence, as he excelled in both the ground and air games immediately upon arrival.
Marks finished his freshman season with a 12.2 FPG average, in which he ran for 312 yards on 70 carries and 3 TDs, and caught nearly as many passes as rush attempts — reeling in 60 receptions for 268 yards. 2021 was his best statistical season in terms of total output — he ran for 416 yards on 106 carries and 6 TDs, and caught 83 passes (on 101 targets according to Fantrax!) for 502 yards and 3 TDs (17.4 FPG). In 2022, his production took a step back but his efficiency on the ground increased. He averaged 5.1 YPC, and took 113 carries for 582 yards and 9 TDs while catching 48 passes for 288 yards (15.1 FPG).
While not a consistent 20+ point guy, his floor last season was pretty solid. He only finished one game with less than 10 points all season — the bowl game vs. Illinois in January.
Now his primary competitor for touches — Dillon Johnson, is no longer on the roster. However, the Bulldogs did bring in former Penn State runner Keyvon Lee this offseason, and freshman RB Simeon Price out of Pensacola, FL showed promise last season. Still, I think it’s safe to say Marks has the inside track on lead runner for this program headed into 2023. If there is a two-headed committee, which isn’t out of the question, the hope is that either Price or Lee will play the 2019 Kobe Lewis role to Marks’ Jonathan Ward role. The QB who targeted Marks many times across the 2021 and 2022 seasons returns, so there is an advantage in familiarity there over Lee, and he has seniority over Price.
While the system’s track record isn’t exactly what I was hoping to find upon further inspection (I cannot say that I expect Marks to see 20+ touches a game in 2023), there is still a lot to like here in my opinion. I am willing to take a chance on Marks should the opportunity present itself. TD production and YPC efficiency will be a key factor in his CFF profile (yea, thanks for the unique insight VP…) I think I’d buy anywhere after the 10th round. Depending on how the RB board shakes out, I could be enticed at a 8th or 9th rounder as well.
Concerns
When looking at Barbay’s recent track record, a few things do standout: 1) his offences are generally very effective on the ground, and run the ball often and 2) he appears to prefer a committee approach (two-headed specifically) over leaning on one runner — but he will lean on a player in the right circumstance. Is MSST in 2023 the right circumstance? There are some things to like with Johnson’s departure and Marks’ efficiency as a runner, but it’s not ‘slam dunk’ obvious from where I sit that Barbay’s going to run the whole offence through Marks like he did with Lew in 2021. Still, that might not be necessary for Marks to hit around 20 FPG if he is TD productive and is efficient with ~18 touches per game the way Jonathan Ward was.
The next concern is sort of a continuation of the conclusion from the first. In the SEC schedule, TDs might not be so easy to come by the way CMU scored in the MAC during the 2019 season. The out-of-conference (OOC) schedule is pretty nice though — opening the season with South Louisiana (FCS program), Arizona the following week, Western Michigan in week 7, and Southern Miss in week 12 (CFF semi-finals week). The Bulldogs play South Carolina as their east opponent, and travel to Auburn, Arkansas and A&M. They get LSU, Kentucky, Ole Miss (CFF championship week) and Alabama at home.
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