COOLER
Ahmad Hardy, Jamal Roberts, Xai’Shaun Edwards... VP weighs in on the Mizzou RB situation ahead of the 2026 season.
All you have to do is follow three simple rules.
One, never underestimate your opponent. Expect the unexpected.
Two, take it outside. Never start anything inside the bar unless it's absolutely necessary.
And three, be nice.
- Dalton, Roadhouse (1989)
There is something I must admit to the faithful readers of this esteemed publication.
I’m ashamed to say that I had not watched the 1980s classic “Roadhouse” starring Patrick Swayze until late last year. It’s a disturbing admission, know...
As for the specifics, well, I was in an AirBnB on the Pacific coast of Costa Rica, and had just finished the movie “Point Break”, featuring my boy Keanu Reeves. Wanting to continue on the Swayze train, I popped on the ‘89 cult classic Swayze had acted in a few years earlier.
Unaware of the cinematic genius I had just stumbled upon, I sat sprawled out on the couch late into the evening following the journey of “Dalton,” the specialized, head-level bouncer who is, shall we say, an elite “de-escalator.”
The story starts as follows: Swayze’s character answers a call from a desperate bar owner in a small town in Missouri. The owner’s bar, named the “Double Deuce” has fallen into total disarray, and thus is in need of a “Cooler”, which is like a head coordinator of the bar staff. Most importantly, the Cooler supervises the other bouncers of the establishment.
Here’s a clip of Dalton’s first day on the job briefing the bar staff on the new protocol under his watch:
Well, the year is now 2026, and another institution in the state of Missouri finds itself in desperate need of some help. In case you were living under a rock, star tailback Ahmad Hardy suffered a gunshot wound to his leg this past spring. The gunshot apparently impacted the bone, which is expected to elongate the recovery time.
While coach Drinkwitz’ initial comments this summer offered some encouragement, stating that Hardy had been “medically cleared” to return to team activities, he later walked back his statement, or rather, further clarified, that what he meant was Hardy would return to normal activities such as walking and running.
Here is what he said at his first press conference of fall camp:
“Yeah, Ahmad is in his recovery. It really hasn’t changed since the last two weeks. He will not be a participant in practice this week. But he will be a participant in rehab and walkthroughs as we continue just to get him acclimated back to what it would take to play football. Should not have really an adjustment on that. I think maybe in two weeks there may be another update on where everything is at. But yeah, it’s, it’s really the same.”
And here is where things get interesting for me—last year the RB2, Jamal Roberts, averaged over 11 PPG behind Hardy, finishing the year with 124 carries for 753 yards and six scores, in addition to 18 receptions for 141 yards and another score.
Those are RB1 numbers on some teams. Indeed, there is perhaps no greater testament to how effective a running team Mizzou was last season than reciting the RB2's rushing numbers.
With multiple returners on the offensive line and a new QB, it figures that Mizzou will probably lean on the run to stabilize things early once again.
The question is: will there be one runner who handles most of that carry share? Or will it be split when Hardy returns?
Well, nobody has a crystal ball, but we can dissect the situation with some common sense in an attempt to reason out how to approach this backfield.
From my view, as things currently stand, Roberts is a big buy for the early part of the year. He was already highly effective last season behind a bellcow, and now he’s going to be the focal point in that system for, most likely, at least four games in September.
When/if Hardy returns this year, I would not expect that to happen before October, considering the date is currently August 6th and he is still in the rehab process. Nor would I expect the Mizzou staff to be overzealous in rushing him back, considering they have an exceptional backup behind him, and the risk of re-injury or new injury is high if you reintroduce Hardy too early.
Which brings me to what is perhaps the most salient point: even when Hardy returns, I would be surprised if Coach Drink and his staff hand him a heavy workload. I’m sure Hardy wants to return to his full diet of touches, but it feels unlikely that a staff who has a healthy Jamal Roberts already is going to decide to do that, considering the risks involved and how unnecessary it is.
If they didn’t have a capable backup who already accumulated nearly 1,000 total yards last year on limited action, that would be one thing. The fact of the matter is, Hardy still has eligibility left and can return for another year. This isn’t a do-or-die season for him, who I’m sure is already being paid quite well.
Justice Haynes was on his way to a Heisman finalist season last year before injury prematurely cut his campaign short. He’s back now for a fourth season. Ditto for UW’s Jonah Coleman the year prior. There are all sorts of examples of returning RBs who looked primed to leave after their third years.
So the reward doesn’t justify the risk from my view. Time will tell whether the Mizzou staff feels differently.
Mizzou’s first four games are: Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kansas, Troy, and Mississippi State. I think that matchup against the Bulldogs will be a tough one, but overall, you have to feel like they can get it done with just Roberts during that stretch.
Roberts vs. Hardy, Carry Distribution & Other Names
Roberts is not more effective overall compared to Hardy, obviously. If he were, he would have been the RB1. That being said, I do think he is probably a better receiver of the ball and potentially faster in the open field.
Hardy is better at breaking tackles, which is sort of his trademark. However, Roberts is listed at 6’1, 212 pounds, so he’s not a small back. And there are a lot of examples from his highlights last season of him breaking tackles.
Even prior to Hardy’s injury, there was no scenario this year where Roberts wasn’t going to be involved given what he did last season. Hardy finished with 256 carries, and Roberts with 124. So he had about half the number of carries Hardy had.
I assumed—prior to injury—that Hardy would retain his role and finish with another 250+ carries in 2026. With the gunshot incident, I am not ruling out that Roberts actually finishes with more carries to end the year, but I don’t think either are getting to 250+. I would imagine there will be a more balanced split where both are around 170-180 in a best case scenario for Hardy.
That scenario presupposes that he eventually gets back to full health and the staff is comfortable giving him 15-20 carries a game in November down the stretch.
The worst case scenario is that he just doesn’t return at all, or is not at full form at any point in the year, allowing Roberts to be the bellcow, in which case I’d anticipate around 200 carries for him.
Which perhaps brings me to the next logical point: if Hardy isn’t really involved and Roberts isn’t a 250+ carry monster, where is the other offset rushing usage going?
I think once Simmons is acclimated the Tigers will probably pass the ball more compared to 2026. I felt this way already before all of this mess simply because Simmons is more of a pass-first QB compared to Beau Pribula.
Second, there is another 1000+ yard back in Xai’Shaun Edwards who joined the program from FCS program Houston Christian. He figured to be the RB3 prior to Hardy’s gunshot wound. He is too small at 5’9, 175 pounds to be anything like a bellcow in the SEC, but there will probably be more carries incoming for him too.
It’s not like his size has changed recently, so coach Drink and the staff knew his specs when they brought him in, and presumably did so to use him in a specific function at the very least.
BUT, as Dalton would tell us:
Never underestimate your opponent
and
Expect the unexpected
I’ve had the pleasure of watching Hardy since his ULM days as a shareholder of his in CFFNate’s dynasty league. He’s an exceptional player and probably an exceptional worker. His recovery is not going to be normal (and I mean that in a good way). There is a chance that he recovers faster and better than anticipated and returns to a heavy workload—even if it’s not quite the diet of touches he had last season.
All that said, I like Roberts right now if you can nab him in the early to mid rounds of drafts. I recently selected him in the 6th round of a P4-only draft. If anything, he will be valuable in September. In P4/G5 leagues, I think a few rounds after that would be ideal.
As for Hardy, I think on the off chance that he returns to full form, or close to it at least, you have to keep him in mind in the later mid rounds. He’s not currently making it back there in any drafts I’ve seen, so for the most part, that just means that I and anyone else who agrees with me won’t be acquiring any shares.
If he somehow slips back to round 10+, I think it to make sense to pull the trigger. It really comes down to: how valuable is the roster spot, and can you afford to hold onto him for a month or so like we do with some of the MAC guys. That’ll vary by drafter. ◾
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