Fresno State Has a lot of Targets to Replace

Someone has to replace all of that slot receiver production; Plus: Jalen Moss is a future Volume Pig?

Apr 19, 2024

You guys all need to start looking at Josiah Freeman.

- Jake Haener (March 3rd, 2023), former FSU Bulldog

In the early stages of spring 2023, esteemed College Football writer and known CFF degenerate Eric Froton visited the NFL combine. There, he not only looked devilishly handsome (as he usually does), but he also did the CFF community a solid by asking—directly to the players competing at the combine—some of the more relevant questions on CFF players’ minds.

One such question was addressed to former Fresno State QB and eternal darling of Felix Sharpe, Jake Haener, bringing forth the pertinent ask of: who’s going to be Fresno State’s (FSU) next guy with WR Jalen Cropper moving on?

Now, I don’t believe Haener was intentionally misleading us with his response (but it’s fun to imagine him playing CFF secretly, and sandbagging us with his answer). I think he generally did think Josiah Freeman was the next man up.

Josiah Freeman’s breakout season unfortunately did not transpire (at all). He finished 2023 with a grand total of 19 catches for 249 yards and one score. However, he did end the year on a positive note, catching three of his five targets vs. New Mexico State for 47 yards, scoring his only TD on the year. His single-season high of eight targets vs. Utah State and Boise State were also bright spots. This was sort of a theme with FSU’s attack last year, they spread the targets out quite a bit.

It may interest the readers to know that many of those targeted receivers are now moving on, leaving vacancies open (especially at slot receiver) not just for Freeman to make good on Haener’s promise from a year ago, but also for new names to fill in.

From a March beat report:

Few teams spread the ball around to as many targets as Fresno State did in 2024. And while many return - none of them are true slot receivers. Leading receiver Erik Brooks and third-leading WR Jaelen Gill have both graduated. And on top of that, tight end and de-facto slot option Tre Watson also transferred to Texas A&M.
As defenses adjusted and Fresno State’s young outside receivers began to get comfortable, the usage for both Brooks and Gill dropped significantly after the first five weeks. Still, there’s no doubt how critical the Bulldogs’ slot standouts were at times last season, and Pat McCann’s offense had some of its best moments when the slot targets were getting open. This year, the ‘Dogs largely start from scratch in the slot.
The ‘Dogs return a handful of slot receivers, but they combined for zero offensive snaps last season. Senior walk-on Jordan Brown would be the most likely to step into a significant role. He caught two touchdowns in last year’s spring preview and was the Bulldogs’ second slot before Gill made his way to campus via transfer. There’s also Emoryie Edwards who has been plagued with injuries but has had moments in that position in the past.
New junior college addition Karim McCune II had 21.7 yards per catch, 8 touchdowns and even caught a 92-yarder at the JuCo level last season. The 6-foot deep threat has already confirmed that Fresno State wants to move him from his outside WR position to instead compete in the slot. And McCune added that he spent much of last fall getting extra training for that potential move.

The staff here has an odd way of doing things when it comes to choosing who plays where. Well, I say odd, but really it’s just a way to get all of the best players on the field at the same time, which is always good. More on this in a bit.

Besides Freeman, there are a few names who are returning, and in typical Bulldog fashion, you might be surprised to hear how each was utilized last season.

Mac Dalena — 5’11, 175

Few would picture a 5’11, 175 pound—white—wide receiver and think ‘that’s a boundary guy’ (see Ladd McConkey’s NFL Draft process… and he was 6’1), but that was exactly what FSU’s senior wideout Mac Dalena was last year for the Dogs. Here’s an excerpt from the same beat report quoted above:

Could Fresno State’s answer at slot receiver not even be a slot receiver at all? Many spectators have looked at the 5-foot-11 and speedy Mac Dalena and wondered why he had not already been in that role - but Dalena has been an outside WR from the start at Fresno State and the Bulldogs are seemingly reluctant to make that move.
With Fresno State’s rotation of receivers and combination of packages/pre-snap movement, Pro Football Focus (PFF) recorded Dalena with 30 total slot snaps last season.
The idea of getting Fresno State’s best three receivers on the field at once would presumably mean Dalena, Moss and Freeman all in one package. It might be Moss, rather than Dalena, who sees the most time there though.

Curiously, Dalena plays on the outside, while Moss played 108 slot snaps to Dalena’s 30 in 2023. Moss is 6’1 and 185 pounds. I’m not sure I fully understand it, but it seems the staff like Dalena as an outside guy, and have been willing to experiment with Moss on the inside.

Either way, Dalena is an intriguing name to know ahead of 2024. He finished last season with 47 receptions for 509 yards and three scores in 13 games (9.2 PPG in 1PPR formats). He had single season highs of 23, 18.9 and 14.5 points vs. Wyoming, SJSU and BSU, respectively, and he figures to be on the field a lot more this year.

Jalen Moss — 6’1, 170

Speaking of Moss, here’s what that report said about him:

It was another outside receiver who actually saw these snaps more frequently - Jalen Moss took 108 snaps from the slot, nearly a fourth of his time on the field. Tim Grear and Josiah Freeman saw another 15 and 14 in the slot, respectively.

So clearly, somebody has to play in the slot. If it’s not going to be Dalena, then perhaps Moss, who—as we’ve discovered—actually played in the slot most often of the three main returning receivers.

Moss is a third year player coming off a 55 reception year, where he amassed just over 700 yards and six scores (12.7 PPG). He actually finished 2023 as FSU’s second leading receiver in yards, and tied for number one in TDs.

Erik Brooks (95 targets), Jaelin Gill (91 targets), and Tre Watson (50 targets) vacate 147 receptions, 1682 yards and 15 receiving TDs in total. Even though QB Mikey Keene and the Fresno offensive staff have shown a willingness to spread targets, it’s entirely reasonable that Moss’ 86 targets from a year ago are going to increase in 2024. Could we be looking at a future member of the 100 club? Doesn’t seem like a stretch to me. Between Brooks, Gill, and Watson, there are 236(!) targets leaving this roster.

Josiah Freeman — 6’3, 193

That brings me to Josiah Freeman. While we know he didn’t live up to expectations last year, he could be one of these players in CFF who everyone forgets about after the let down, only to rise from the ashes like a phoenix a year later (metaphorically speaking, of course).

Freeman is the biggest (physically) of the main three guys returning, and if FSU’s staff insists on putting him at slot receiver than I’m going to officially send a stuffed pig to OC Pat McCann’s door step out of respect for sheer imagination and audacity. I love the idea of deploying a 5’11, 175 pound player on the outside while a 6’3, 200 pound NBA two-guard operates from the inside. That’s gangster.

At risk of sounding like a broken record from last year, Josiah Freeman needs to be a thing this year. He was a productive JuCo player in Cali before promoting up to the FBS level, and the few glimpses last season suggest there could a budding star here. I’m setting the line at O/U four games where Freeman scores 20 or more CFF points on the year.

Beyond the top three, Tim Grear appears to be a name to monitor, and it sounds like freshman WR Jordan Malau’ulu is making waves early on:

At wide receiver, Jordan Malau'ulu continues to shine as an early enrollee. McCann described the WR room as having "a line in the sand" between the top four of Jalen Moss, Mac Dalena, Josiah Freeman and Tim Grear compared to the rest. In the quest to find the next options, McCann pointed to Malau'ulu, Edwards and Brown as the players who have been most consistent this spring - with all three making plays in Friday's scrimmage too

However, I’d expect the three names covered to soak up the bulk of Fresno’s targets in ‘24.

Coaching & System

WR1 PPG Average — HC: 12.74 — OC: 10.68

What’s interesting about OC Pat McCann is that while his WR1 PPG average is fairly pedestrian, his WR2 average is almost identical at 10.32. Additionally, his WR3 average is not far behind at 9.62. Keep in mind these are half PPG numbers I’m quoting and are from a sample of data between 2018-23.1

Tedford’s numbers are a little more in line with what you would typically see. His WR1 averages over 12.7 PPG, while his WR2 and WR3 average 8.7 and 7.1 PPG, respectively.

On a targets per game basis, McCann’s WR1 has averages 7.3 per game, while Tedford’s have averaged just shy of 7. WR2 averages for both are 6.6 and 5.6, respectively.

All that to say, the constant spreading of targets tends to balance the ratio of this staff’s PPG numbers through WR1-3, but it does negatively hinder the top target in the offence. Neither coach’s WR1 averages are exceptional, but CFF managers will recall that there were at various times some productive stretches from multiple different WRs in this offence in 2023.

That makes it difficult to invest in one and trust them in a standard format where you have to choose starters each week. However, in a bestball format, where you take on virtually no risk in holding players, each of these three are intriguing. In fact, even holding all three of them seems like a viable option.

Bearing in mind that these averages are quoted from a 2018-2023 sample and do not include years spent in the FCS. That’s an important consideration because the OC, McCann, had multiple 1000-yard receivers during his time with Eastern Washington.

This staff also had a 1000-yard receiver in 2022, FSU’s first since 2018, in the form of the aforementioned Jalen Cropper.

As far as team pace, FSU’s staff moves at an above average pace on a seconds per play basis, ranking 49th last year with 25 seconds per play run.

Closing

According to Campus2Canton, Moss is going the highest in drafts right now, with an ADP of 192.4 , which is around the 16th round. Freeman is next at 283, which is around the middle of the 23rd round. Dalena, despite being the second leading returning receiver, is not even drafted.

In my opinion, Moss should absolutely be the first one drafted, followed by Dalena, and then probably Freeman. However, I wouldn’t spend a pick on one of these guys until at least the teens in standard formats. In bestball, I could see reaching for Moss earlier.

The QB returns, the RB1 returns, and over 70% of OL snaps from a year ago return. This is going to be an offence that moves the ball, the question is: how much of that success is funnelled through one receiver, and will it be the same player week-to-week? ◾

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The PPG numbers derive from a subscriber’s model: Joe Arpasi.