Has Jay Norvell Found His Next Cole Turner (Again)?
Has Jay Norvell Found His Next Cole Turner (Again)?
A fisherman always sees another fisherman from afar...
Does blue horseshoe still love Anacott steel?
- Bud Fox, Wallstreet: Money Never Sleeps (2010)
One of my favourite articles that I ever wrote was last year’s profile on Colorado State and former BYU standout Dallin ‘Wallstreet’ Holker, aptly named “Has Jay Norvell found his Cole Turner for 2023?”. CSU fans were some of the first to embrace my publication in the early days, and as such, this program has held a special place in my heart ever since.
My infatuation with Jay Norvell’s tight ends predates my starting a substack publication, however. Some of the more dedicated VP readers may have heard me wax poetic in the past about my 2021 CFF roster. To date, I would say that squad was the ne plus ultra of what a volume pig roster can do. It was the first year that I put my CFF credo into action with full force, and the results were extraordinary.
One of the core components of that roster was a lanky, longhaired 6’6 TE who looked like a basketball player moonlighting as a football player. Cole Turner was his name, and he was an incredible CFF asset because the Wolfpack always looked his way in the redzone. Two-score performances with less than 70 yards receiving were a regular occurrence. I wasn't complaining.
Turner finished the 2021 season with over 670 yards receiving, 10 scores, and 62 receptions. So naturally when Norvell took the CSU job, and a former BYU standout announced he’d be transferring over to Fort Collins, I took notice.
“Use the offshore accounts, and keep it quiet…”
Is exactly what I told the VP interns over a secure phone line last offseason when I highlighted Holker’s name as one to acquire late in drafts. This moved paid immediate dividends, as Holker’s performance at the TE position bolstered my squad in CFFNate’s dynasty league to a runner-up finish in the championship.
At a position that is so often plagued by immeasurable mediocrity, the Norvell TE1 has been something of a panacea for CFF players’ TE woes throughout the years. However, nothing is ever a sure thing in CFF, and as has been mentioned time and time again on this publication, even the most ineluctable systems can fail.
And that may very well be the case this year without an obvious name emerging in the offseason. But then again, maybe not. Here’s an excerpt from a report covering CSU football earlier this year:
Newcomer Jaxxon Warren came to CSU from Navarro Junior College where he moved from quarterback to tight end and became a player that was coveted by Power 4 teams after less than a season at the position.
Warren chose the Rams over offers from the likes of Central Florida, SMU and Oregon State. His connection to the CSU coaching staff dates back to his attendance at a quarterback camp at Nevada hosted by now-Rams associate head coach Matt Mumme, but it was actually an hour-long phone call with Holker that sealed Warren’s decision to transfer to CSU.
“He really solidified everything I was hearing from the staff,” Warren told The Denver Gazette. “He’s a great person and I know they have a great tradition of tight ends here and I know they’re gonna put me in the best situations to succeed. I knew in my heart that this was where I wanted to be.”
Following up on those comments about the usage of TEs, CSU’s TE coach offered these comments:
“We just use our tight ends in a unique way,” CSU tight ends coach James Finley told The Denver Gazette. “I don’t think anyone in the country uses ‘em like we use ‘em.”
What’s unfortunate about Warren is that he missed spring ball due to still being enrolled at his JuCo. The good(ish) news is that apparently no-one stepped up and took the TE1 role definitively in his absence during this time period. Here is an excerpt from a report in late May:
Is it too much to put a player who hasn't had a practice with CSU or any FBS team here? Maybe, but all indications are Warren is coming to CSU with the staff expecting an important impact.
CSU lost star tight end Dallin Holker (676 receiving yards and six touchdowns in 2023) to the NFL and this offense functions at its best with a big, athletic tight end in the middle. The 6-foot-7 Warren may fit into that spot from Day 1. None of the tight ends on campus grabbed the spot in spring ball. Warren comes from Navarro College last season and used to be a quarterback, but he has big athleticism and upside. He will have a chance to win the starting job and if he does, the Rams will need him to produce.
CSU associate head coach Matt Mumme, who as mentioned recruited Warren as a QB at Nevada, offered these comments on Warren:
“He’s a special kid and he’s got a really big opportunity in front of him,” Mumme told The Denver Gazette. “It’s interesting to see where he went from as a high school quarterback coming to my quarterback school at Nevada being a guy around 6-(foot)-5, 190 pounds to where he is now (at) 6-(foot)-7 and a half and weighs 245 (pounds). He’s really changed his body and he’s really still growing into that.”
Is it possible that we are about to witness yet another boom year for the Norvell TE1, or is this just a bubble that’s about to burst? Let’s take a look at what the numbers say to gain a better understanding of how to proceed.
Coaching & System
TE1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 7.25 — OC: 7.251 (half ppr)
While the overall numbers may not blow you away over the last five years, the Norvell-Mumme system is one that can be categorized as a boom-or-bust factory for CFF assets. Twice in the last three seasons the TE1 has averaged over eight and a half targets per game. That’s outstanding.
In the other three seasons that comprise the five year sample pictured above, the TE1 averages about one and a half targets per game. So, one could conclude that when there is a player worthy, they will be fed early and often in this offence. However, if there is not a talent that demands it, then the TE position is basically shunned from the offensive festivities.
One thing to note is that the 2020 COVID season is excluded from the sample, but Cole Turner had a very strong season in that one. In nine games, he scored as many TDs and reeled in 49 receptions for 605 yards. I don’t know how many targets he got that season but he was averaging about five and half catches per game, so to support that I’d guess he was averaging at least eight targets in that season also.
So if we really look at this, Norvell’s TE1 has averaged eight or more targets in three of the last four seasons. His TE1 has been the best TE in CFF, or a top three TE in CFF three of the last four seasons. That’s incredible when you talk about TE systems because there really aren’t a lot of good ones out there.
The question really becomes: is there a player like Holker or Turner on the roster? Well, nobody has the answer currently. Unfortunately, we won’t know until the bullets start flying, but Warren is probably a name to tuck away in the interim.
As far as tendencies, this staff averages about a 54/46 split in favour of the pass, and the offence moves at a brisk pace, averaging 22.4 seconds per play, which was ninth in the FBS last year. So you can see that the potential for fireworks here is quite large when it comes to the receiving assets of this offence.
Jaxxon Warren — 6’7, 245
2023 STATS: NA
Warren, who originally committed to Ball State, found his way to Fort Collins after the Rams fended off advances from the likes of Oregon State and SMU.
The Texas native was given a three star rating in the junior college ranks by 247 Sports, and was ranked the #3 TE prospect for the 2024 JuCo cycle.
Here is some more background on Warren that I have lazily copy pasted for your attention:
Colorado State's newest tight end was once a quarterback recruit.
Navarro College tight end Jaxxon Warren committed to CSU football as a transfer on Friday. He announced his commitment on X. Warren will have three seasons of eligibility.
He's familiar to CSU's staff because he was once recruited by Matt Mumme as a quarterback. Warren, as a high school prospect, was the QB camp MVP award winner at Nevada in June of 2021.
But the 6-foot-7, 245-pound Warren ended up on a different path in college football. He's moved to tight end where he played at Navarro (a junior college) last season.
In a funny note, he's still listed as a QB on Navarro's stats page but he caught 15 passes for 255 yards in eight games last season.
As a transfer, Warren picked up offers from Oregon State, SMU, UCF, USF and others. He took official visits to both CSU and Oregon State before committing to the Rams.
As is typically the case with this position, Warren didn’t exactly light the stat sheet up at his former school. He finished his first and only JuCo campaign nabbing 15 passes for 255 yards in eight games last year. Nonetheless, his physical form is reminiscent of a former TE great under Norvell, the aforementioned Cole Turner, and the buzz on him this offseason is noteworthy.
However, Warren is not alone in that TE room. His colleague, 6’6 Vince Brown, is another specimen at Norvell’s disposal. Prior to Warren’s transfer, Brown had this to say about the opportunity to step into Holker’s shoes:
“Once I got the news that Dallin left in the offseason, it kinda clicked (that) this spot could finally be mine (and) I’ve got something to work for,” Brown said. “I have a different chip on my shoulder I’ve never felt ever in my life. From spring ball to now, I’ve (gained) so much confidence of what to do in this offense and how to be productive and I feel like if the coaches give me the chance, I’ll definitely be productive.”
Could we be correct in circling this room as one to watch, but incorrect on which name to target? Of course, this is a possibility. But if I’m taking one name from this room right now, I’m going with Warren until further notice. I like the cut of his jib. I checked out his instagram page and it was giving frat boy vibes, which I do appreciate in CFF assets.
In all seriousness, there is a lot of buzz around Warren, and I’m always more intrigued by players who change positions later in their careers. To me, this means that the upside could be extremely high once they develop into the position. And when we’re talking about TEs specifically, it really only pays to take swings on upside in CFF.
If it doesn’t pay off, there will always be a litany of mediocre 5-10 PPG pedestrians on the wire for you to scavenge as a fallback plan.
CSU unfortunately plays Texas week one, so there probably won’t be much we can learn in that game. I’d advise the reader to watch weeks two and three vs. Northern Colorado and the Buffs carefully for an answer to the age old question with Norvell’s offence this year. ◾
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