Heisman SZN Incoming for Wolverine Tailback?

It might not be the one you're thinking of...

Jul 26, 2024

A stallion must first be broken before it can reach its potential.

- Leonard Nimoy, actor

There’s just something that seems off in College Football when the B1G conference is infested with RB committees. Even worse, when seemingly every RB1 in this conference is smaller than 230 pounds, it’s logical for one to question: what is even happening here? Penn State, OSU, Wisconsin… once great fortresses for massive volume RBs, all turned communist in the year of 2023.

There were a few shining exceptions: Minnesota, Rutgers, and of course, the boys in blue. Under Harbaugh and co. the Wolverines doled out massive carry share to their top tailback. Sure, that tosser Donovan Edwards was still involved behind Blake Corum, but by and large it was BC and his 258 carries that catalyzed the UM rushing attack, which was essentially the entire offence (see PSU game).

Now, with Corum moving on, you’d think it’s logical that Edwards—the former five star—would be next in line. I’m here today to offer a different perspective.

For starters, we should think about what made Corum so effective in this system. Despite being undersized and lacking elite top end speed, his vision and decision making with the ball in his hands were exceptional. If there’s one criticism on Edwards, it would be that he struggles to choose the right rushing lanes. Here’s a UM writer earlier this offseason:

Whenever you lose a guy like Blake Corum, arguably the greatest running back in program history, there’s a big hole left behind. While I’m excited about the duo of Edwards and Mullings, Corum’s vision and his ability to make guys miss in a phone booth are what separated him last season. If there’s one thing I can point to as a question for Edwards, it would be his vision as a ball-carrier. There was more than just one factor into why Edwards’ production and effectiveness dipped a season ago, but I think that was one of the biggest reasons.
How much can and has Edwards improved in that area? It’s less important for a guy like Mullings, who figures to be more of a short-yardage battering ram for the Wolverines this season. I think Michigan can counter what they lose between the tackles with Corum gone by getting the ball to Edwards more in the pass game.

I then decided to reach out to a known CFF degenerate and UM fan, C2C’s very own Chris Kay to tap into his thoughts on the backfield. His outlook was that Edwards would be RB1 with Mullings behind and used as a goal-line back. Our very own CFBWinningEdge projects Edwards at around 1200 yards and 10-12 TDs. Certainly that seems like the logical conclusion for what to expect this year. You also don’t want to recruit five star RBs and then not use them/fail to get them drafted high if you’re the UM staff, for obvious reasons.

So, there’s a lot going for Edwards. And maybe he will be the RB1 this year for the Wolverines. EA Sports seems to think so, at least. Still, I remain interested in Mullings as a ‘zig’ where everyone else ‘zags’ option late in drafts. Let us first look at the staff in place in Ann Arbor.

Coaching & System

RB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 21 — OC: 15.91 (half ppr)

Sherrone Moore is the man responsible for taking over from Jim Harbaugh. Moore has been the OC of the Wolverines for the last three seasons, which have each been monster years for the RB1. His OC—Kirk Campbell, has one season of play calling data in the range of the table below (2021 at ODU), where his RB1 Blake Watson averaged just under 16 PPG.

Moore’s average of nearly 20 carries per game and about 100 yards rushing suggests that whoever takes over as RB1 under him is usually a good bet to be one of the leading rushers in CFB.

Both coaches average a heavier run skew, but Moore’s is more pronounced at a 60/40 split to Campbell’s 54/46 split. Either way, I think it should be expected that the Wolverines continue to lean heavily on the run this year.

Despite the fact that the Wolverines have produced a 1000+ yard runner in three straight seasons, there is always another runner heavily involved too. In 2021 and 2022, the RB2 finished with over 140 carries and over 900 yards rushing each.

It was only in 2023 when we saw a heavier concentration to the RB1, likely due to the staff’s lack of trust in Edwards and his inefficiency as a runner. Edwards is always a big play threat, and is probably the best receiving back Michigan has, but on an every down basis he has not proven to be an effective workhorse.

Now, it’s possible that he figures it out in 2024, but it’s also possible that he doesn’t, which is why I’m writing this article. We could also see some Isaiah Bowser action where Mullings finishes games with 2-3 TDs but less than 50 yards rushing.

Kalel Mullings (6’2, 240)

2023 STATS: 36-222-1 (2.6 PPG)2

BIG DOG. My man Mullings checks in at a healthy 6’2, 240, which is very 1990s B1G-esque. I don’t know about you, but to me there’s something that just feels right about a 230+ pound tailback toting the rock in midwest country come November.

Most proponents believe Mullings will just be a goal-line battering ram, and maybe he will—but imagine for a moment a reality where UM is running the ball almost every play next fall, and where the staff gets so fed up with Edwards falling over his own linemen that they put the big dog in for 30 or 40 carries vs. an overwhelmed Arkansas State, or a haphazard USC defence. Indeed, even if Edwards is RB1 overall on the season, Mullings should be able to have at least a couple of massive performances.

Looking at the offence as a whole, Alex ‘Hugh Hef’ Oriji figures to be QB1 for the program this fall, but the Wolverines return only 13% of the OL snaps from a year ago. I trust that the program will field a strong OL as that’s been the MO for the past few seasons. I also believe Oriji will be a run-first QB. So, this offence has the potential to be a very heavy ground attack this upcoming season, and that also means injuries galore come November. Again, this is another factor to consider with my man Mullings potentially coming in and getting some major spin.

As far as Mullings’ background, he was a three star LB recruit out of Boston in the 2020 class. Surprisingly, 247’s Brian Dohl actually filled out an evaluation for Mullings coming out of high school:

Solid frame and thick build best suited for inside linebacker. Already physically developed. Plays downhill. Good burst in first three steps. Can change direction and make plays down line of scrimmage.
Is physical disengaging. Sifts through traffic to make tackles. Has good speed. Has to play lower at point of attack. Adding flexibility so he can rotate shoulders important. Concern about being close to physically topped out. Durability questions exist. Multi-year starter at Top 20 program. Likely a day three NFL draft choice.

Obviously, that eval is for Mullings as a LB prospect, but it does shed some light on the type of athlete we’re dealing with here. Notably, Mullings was named Gatorade Player of the Year in Massachusetts for the 2019 season.

Closing

Perhaps surprisingly, Mullings actually has ADP data on Campus2Canton. His current ADP is 288.1, suggesting that he is a late round player in what is likely exclusively 30-round bestball drafts. That sounds about right to me.

It’s hard to justify taking a shot on a guy like this in a regular 16-round redraft league where you have to choose your starters each week. Especially since we won’t know who’s going to get the lion’s share of carries between Mullings and Edwards.

Mullings was at times the second RB put into the game last year behind Corum, which suggests the staff is at least comfortable with him. However, his size at 240 might make him too big to be an every down back.

The most likely outcome in my mind is that there is a healthy split between him and Edwards, potentially rendering at least one or both as unusable in CFF. However, I still view Mullings as a worthwhile dart throw in bestball formats because of his upside as UM’s potential RB1 this year, which actually isn’t that unlikely. ◾

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