Michigan State Has The Most Talented QB in the B1G
Has the CFF community's memory been severed from last offseason? Why is no-one talking about Aiden Chiles anymore...
A good person will follow the rules. A great person will follow himself.
- Ricken, Severance (2022)
It is said that as a child, Aiden ‘Sparty McFly’ Chiles refused to eat at his local IHOP restaurant in Downey, CA. Don't worry—my research for this article has proven this claim untrue, but as your heart rate settles, consider this: Oregon State transfer Aiden Chiles might be the most talented QB in the B1G currently. Yes, you read that correctly.
Admittedly, the bar might not be that high, considering half of the conference failed to complete a forward pass in 2023 (is that true? I’m not sure… it might as well be).1 Indeed, it’s truly a disturbing thought to consider that Michigan’s JJ McCarthy was considered the best ‘passer’ in this conference last season.
Of course, Oregon’s transfer QB Dillon Gabriel is the better player at this point. And sure, you could argue in favour of a guy like USC’s Miller Moss here too, but his head coach Lincoln Riley is an absolute wanker. Furthermore, players like UW’s Demond Williams or Ohio State’s Julian Sayin aren’t expected to be starters this year. And lord have mercy on your soul should you find yourself arguing in favour of PSU’s converted RB, Drew Allar.
The former top-100 prospect, Chiles, couldn’t have arrived at a better time. If you asked the average Michigan State (MSU) fan if they would like to sever their memories from the 2022 and 2023 football seasons, most would probably take you up on that deal. The CFB gods can be cruel at times, and undoubtedly Sparty has been feeling their wrath lately. But, there is a glimmer of hope emerging through the clouds.
It is a known fact that in the VP head office, there is a quote that hangs on the wall of every meeting room, and it reads “An average pig will follow the rules. A fat pig will follow his stomach.” The message is clear, and it is one of the founding principles of our organization.
It’s also what newly appointed MSU head coach Jonathan Smith apparently told his understudy, Aiden Chiles, when Smith took the Spartans job and wanted him to follow via the portal.
Some tough conversations over the phone later and the deal was sealed, Sparty got its man of the future, a potentially program-changing acquisition for the Spartans. And for those who think I’m being dramatic: lest we forget the recent history of transfers into this program.
It won’t be an easy turnaround, however, as the new B1G—a fairly top-heavy conference before the inclusion of the new PAC12 teams—is going to be a highly competitive group in 2024 and beyond. And MSU has a tough October. They play Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan and Oregon, making it possible that all of the Spartans’ players will be unplayable for that entire month.
However, September and November look more forgiving, and should present opportunities for MSU’s players to put up points. But first, let’s take a trip down memory lane for those who might have forgotten about a player who at one point, seemed like everyone’s favourite dynasty darling.
Aiden Chiles — 6’4, 195
2023 PPG: 6.4 — 2024 ADP: 246
The 6’4, 195 pound gunslinger out of Downey, CA, was one of, if not the highest rated recruits to ever commit and sign to the Oregon State Beavers. He was rated 58th nationally according to 247 Sports’ in-house ranking, and the 152nd ranked prospect on the composite. Though I would say that his offer sheet—puzzlingly—did not really reflect his ranking, which always gives me some pause.
He held offers (according to 247 Sports) from UW and Oregon as the headliners. However, if you don’t count WSU and ORST, he held only four(!) P4 offers coming out of high school—UW, Oregon, Kansas State, and Rutgers. Perplexing for a prospect of that rating.
Still, many of my colleagues over at Campus2Canton were raving about Chiles’ abilities coming out of high school last year, and if he was good enough for Kalen DeBoer’s staff to offer, that’s good enough for me. Of course, his actual head coach—Jonathan Smith, is no slouch either. The former QB himself played at Oregon State from 1998-2001. Evidently, even school ties couldn’t keep him from jetting to greener (and blacker) pastures in the B1G, joining Michigan State late in the 2023 season.
Chiles later followed Smith to MSU, which, I don’t blame him; I wouldn’t really want to play in a two-man conference either, although the idea also sounds kind of fun, in a truly sick and depraved kind of way.
He didn’t play much in his freshman season behind DJ Uiagalelei, so we’ll have to leverage the body of work from his high school career more. Here is what 247 Sports analyst Greg Biggins had to say in his evaluation of him coming out of high school:
Chiles is a true dual-threat quarterback who has made big strides in his game over the last year. After breaking his wrist halfway through his junior season, Chiles put up big numbers as a senior and can stress a defense with his arm and his legs. He has an easy delivery and the ball jumps out of his hand.
He’s elusive in the pocket, runs well and is very capable of picking up chunks of yards on zone reads or escaping pressure and taking off. He has worked hard on his mechanics and his release is tighter and he’s able to get the ball off from different arm angles.
The game is slowing down for him and you can see he’s processing faster and able to find secondary receivers. He’s a natural leader and will be a future captain at the next level and as his game will only progress as he takes more game reps.
Biggins’ evaluation adds some context on Chiles’ offer sheet—it would appear he was a late riser, and presumably, at QB, most programs have already been recruiting ‘their guys’ for over two years by the time they reach their senior years of high school, which perhaps limited the offer sheet for Chiles.
This was confirmed when I looked at the history of Chiles’ ranking on 247. In the summer before his senior season, he was rated in the 500s on the 247 Sports’ internal ranking, and he was as low as 800 in the composite earlier in the year. Within the span of a few months he rose up multiple hundreds of spots to finish as a top 100/200 prospect.
OK, so that addresses that issue. Now we should probably think about how likely it is that he even wins the starting job this year. Well, here is what Coach Smith has been saying so far this spring:
I'd describe it as an upset if he's not [the starter].
He knows the terminology already. I'm excited for him, being a first year last year to taking another step in Year 2.
The leadership will come through because of his understanding, comfort-level of the scheme, but also his experience. And, he understands it's not just about him — it's the guys around him and the other QBs in the room.
It sounds like that issue is sorting itself out also. This begs the question, why has the optimism around Chiles faded amongst the CFF community this offseason?
As for his year one numbers, as mentioned, he played sparingly behind DJU last season. He appeared in nine games, completing 24 passes out of 35 attempts for 309 yards and four scores to zero INTs. He also ran 17 times for 79 yards and three scores. That’s not bad for mop up duty.
His best game came against UC Davis, where he completed nine of 13 passes for 74 yards and one score, while running four times for 42 yards and another score.
Coach Smith’s Track Record at QB
The main concern I have is that the system deployed by the head coach himself isn’t really that attractive. Save for a strong season by UW’s Jake Browning in 2016, there aren’t really any notable pigs coming from Smith’s QB1 lineage.
For some added context, Browning, who’s had by far the best season at the FBS level under coach Smith so far, finished 2016 with 3430 yards and a 43-9 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for 45 yards and four more scores. Most of Smith’s QBs have failed to clear 3000 yards and 30 TDs passing. Several of them didn’t even surpass 2000 passing yards.
By the numbers, Smith’s QB1 has averaged 2256 pass yards, 16.3 passing TDs, 7.3 INTs, 59.3 rush attempts, 185.6 rushing yards, and 4.67 rushing TDs per season over the last three years. Those numbers track to around 15.6 and 14.4 PPG over 12 and 13 game seasons, respectively (in the default settings of Fantrax i.e. four point passing TD).
That’s certainly concerning for Chiles, but not the be-all-end-all. Also, as mentioned, due to the schedule he might not have great aggregate numbers but in the months of September and November he could be quite good from a production standpoint. I’m also going to go out on a limb and suggest that most of coach Smith’s QBs at Oregon State were nowhere near as talented as Chiles is.
Below is a summary of Smith’s historical fantasy production at each position (ignore the projections). His OC has been under him every year over the last five years so the numbers are identical. The receiving stats are quoted in half-PPR measurement.
Closing
Above average talents playing on low-talent rosters are always intriguing because of the possibility that they’ll end up playing hero-ball (e.g., Cam Newton with Auburn in 2010). Chiles has an element of that in his profile, which makes him interesting.
I don’t know if I’m ‘in’ enough to prioritize him during drafts yet, which would likely be in the later rounds anyway, but there’s enough here to keep Chiles on my shortlist for the time being.
He was included in my Q1 rankings, and in that report I mentioned that his stock could rise or drop dramatically over the spring. Early spring reports suggest that he’s got the inside track to the starting job, so that alleviates some concerns. The schedule is what it is.
There’s also the question of who he’ll be throwing the ball too. There were a few standout players during the spring game, but who knows what will happen once live play commences.
Personally, I like Chiles and I think he makes a lot of sense as a late round gem in both standard and bestball formats due to his upside. ◾
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I might have made this up.