Parker Jenkins: The Next Makhi Hughes?
The new Houston Cougars staff could be just what the doctor ordered for sophomore RB Parker Jenkins.
I run the streets all night and day… I can’t stay away.
- Slim Thug, musician
The first year in the BIG12 was undoubtedly a disappointment for the Cougars, but hey, it could be worse: you could have been Baylor, who finished 3-9 (yikes); and they didn’t even move up a conference, they were just straight up bad.
In fact, I’d say Houston’s record really didn’t reflect how good the team was last year. They dropped a few games that they really should have won—something that happened all too frequently in H-Town with my boy Dana Holgerson—and that’s probably why the Cats are welcoming in new head coach Willie Fritz, by way of Tulane.
Fritz not only brings a standard of winning with him over from the Bayou, but also a strong recent track record at the RB position. Makhi Hughes broke out last year for the Green Wave with 1378 yards as a redshirt freshman. Hughes dominated the carry share from Week Two onward. As did his predecessor, Tyjae Spears, who ran for 1581 yards and 19 scores in 2022.
All this raises the question: will there be another in Fritz’ RB lineage at Houston this season? And if so, who? There are many question marks as to how the Houston offence will conduct itself this fall, but one of the few areas of clarity I think we have is that they will seek to establish the run. Whether that predominantly comes via one conductor or not is the pertinent question.
But first: a closer look at who’s running the pig farm down here…
Coaching & System
RB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 14.9 — OC: 19.11 (half ppr)
Fritz is joining the program from Tulane, where he spent the last eight seasons from 2016 to 2023. Excluding the COVID year, of Fritz’ seven full seasons with the Green Wave, there were four campaigns with a RB going over 1000-yards. It was actually only this past year that he had his first Green Wave RB finish with over 250 carries, all of the others have been around 200 or less, including Spears who finished with 229 in 2022. That in part explains Fritz’ RB1 average being closer to 15 than 20.
Prior to Tulane he spent two seasons as the head coach of Georgia Southern (2014-15) and four at Sam Houston State (2010-2013). There were three 1000-yard rushers during the two seasons in Statesboro (the same RB twice and one QB). Matt Breida crossed 1600 and 1400 yards in 2015 and 2014, respectively. In both cases Breida carry total was lower than you’d expect, finishing with 203 and 171(!). The efficiency on his 2014 season is unreal, but are you starting to recognize a theme here? This is not a coach who typically is handing out 250+ carries to his RB1. And unfortunately, the efficiency seen at Tulane is unlikely to translate like-for-like in year one in the BIG12.
His OC is a sick individual. Kevin Barbay rose to CFF fame in the infamous 2021 season, where he was the OC of the CMU Chippewas. Some CFF managers like myself were fortunate enough to capitalize on the late news that year that CMU RB1A Kobe Lewis was going to be out for the season with an ACL injury, and were able to subsequently draft CMU’s RB1B turned bellcow— Lew Nichols late. Nichols went on to have a legendary season, rushing 341 times for 1848 yards and 16 scores on the ground, with an additional 40 receptions for 338 yards and two scores. Nichols finished as the RB1 in CFF that year.
In the years since then, Barbay has spent time OC'ing App State (2022) and Mississippi State (2023). His Bulldogs were off to a similar start with Jo Marks being relied on heavily to start the year. Unfortunately, he’d later go down with injury and Barbay was forced to ease off the gas on his return. App State was a total committee in 2022.
So where does that leave us with the staff—tough to get a read on them, isn’t it? The track record is fairly mixed, but the head coach’s last two seasons at least have featured one bellcow, and Barbay has proven his degeneracy before. So things could be worse.
You can see from the above table that the efficiency is quite high with Fritz’ RB1s from the last handful of seasons, with three out of four of them averaging 6.7 ypc or higher, and the other sitting at 5.3 ypc. One of them, Spears in 2022, averaged over 110 yards rushing per game on only 16 carries.
Is this a realistic target to bank on for year one of the Fritz regime at Houston? My answer would be no. On the other hand, the BIG12 is not a conference known for great defence, so there’s that too.
The focus of this publication often narrows in on touch volume and tendencies because these are much easier to predict on. To extrapolate on efficiency would require me to know how good Parker Jenkins is (or whoever Houston’s RB1 is) at football (which I don’t), and/or predict how good Houston is going to be this year in the BIG12 which I can’t really do either.
The tendency on touch volume at least offers a lifeline amongst the chaotic storm that is predicting CFB outcomes. In this case, one thing about this staff is pretty clear: it’s rare that they have a guy who gets 250+ carries. However, 200-230 feels like it could be in play, which by extension means 1000 yards is still in play for whomever secures the RB1 role here.
Parker Jenkins (5’11, 200)
2023 STATS: 99-464-3 (7.3 PPG)
Jenkins completed his true freshman season in 2023 with just a hair under 100 carries. He also caught 15 of his 20 targets for 81 yards. His breakout game came against Sam Houston where he was fed early and often, securing three scores and 105 yards on 20 carries.
He was given a three star rating by 247 Sports’ internal rating but was a composite four star in the 2023 class. Like many of Houston’s best players, he stayed in-state to play for the Cougars.
He was not given a qualitative evaluation from 247 but they did note that he ran 10.8 100m as a junior in high school, which translates to about a 4.5 40-yard dash. So, we know Jenkins has got the wheels. He is also now listed at 5’11, 200 on the Houston team website, making him a little more prototypical for a bellcow back at the collegiate level.
As for what we’re hearing this offseason, here is a report from April quoting Jenkins about the offence:
A “running back’s dream” is the way sophomore Parker Jenkins described new coach Willie Fritz’s commitment to establishing a dominant run game. Fritz will have plenty of options available in the backfield, beginning with Jenkins, who led the team in rushing with 464 yards and three touchdowns as a true freshman. Stacy Sneed (282 yards, TD) and Tony Mathis Jr. (170 yards) will also see action in the backfield.
Fritz has been known for his successful rushing attacks at every stop, including top-30 national finishes in six of his eight seasons at Tulane. One component in Fritz’s “Plan To Win” is ball security and controlling the run game. Fritz said the ability to run the ball will also set up the play-action pass.
As for how the shape of the offence will turn out this upcoming season, here is what the head coach said:
It doesn’t mean… sometimes the receivers say, 'God almighty, he’s going to be under center, triple-option and we’re going to run it 95% of the time,' That’s not what we are going to do. We’re going to be a 50/50 team. There are times we need to run the football where everybody knows you’re running the football.
OK, balanced offence, got it. How about the concentration of touches?
It might take a few games — similar to last season when Hughes emerged as the Green Wave’s No. 1 back — for the Cougars' backfield to sort itself out.
“We’re going to find out pretty early,” Fritz said.
Alrighty, any comparisons to 2023 Makhi Hughes is good news by my book. It might not necessarily be Jenkins, but whoever wins the Houston RB1 job could be a huge value in 2024.
Closing
Jenkins holds an ADP of 241.5 currently, but his May ADP of 267 suggests drafters may be cooling on him. The concerns would be that it is not clear he is going to be the go-to RB this year, nor how the new staff will transition in year one. Houston was also poor last year in their new conference and that tends to negatively affect the run game more than anything else.
Still, Jenkins holds potential high-end RB1 upside with a Makhi Hughes-style profile in his range of outcomes for 2024, making him a logical late round dart throw at RB. ◾
If you enjoyed this content and would like to read more, I recommend joining the Pigpen, a community of over 700 degenerate college football fans:
Data from 2018-23.