Replacing Luther Burden: Mizzou Transfer Kevin Coleman
He signed with coach Prime out of high school; originally a pledge to FSU, Coleman spent time at the FCS level, Louisville and Mississippi State. Now, he looks to be a featured player at Mizzou.
If I want to put all $7,945,400 into a hot tub get buck naked and play Scrooge McDuck, that is 100% my business. Now, where's my money?
- Marty Byrde, Ozark
By now, the regular readers should know the rule: if a player is coming off a 100-target season, they will almost assuredly be featured the following offseason. The transfer portal muddies things somewhat, but as long as the situation the player finds themselves in is still a good one, then we’re ready to cook.
Kevin Coleman hasn’t spent more than one season at any stop so far in his career, which, as it happens, is not that unusual anymore. He was originally committed to Florida State in high school, but flipped to Jackson State to play under Coach Prime. That lasted one season before Coleman moved up to the FBS level to play for Louisville. The former four star had an OK season, catching 26 passes for 362 yards.
A change of scenery was just what the doctor ordered for him as he surpassed the 100 target mark the very next season while playing with the Mississippi State Bulldogs in 2024. Coleman corralled those targets into 74 receptions for 932 yards and six TDs. A pretty good season I’d say.
Now he finds himself on the move once more. This time to the Northern Territory of the SEC, to play for the Mizzou Tigers. Missouri will be replacing their star WR of the last three years, Luther Burden, this upcoming season, clearing a potential path for Coleman to make his mark.
Burden takes with him 81 targets, 676 yards and six scores (15 PPG in PPR formats). It was certainly a strange season for Burden and the Tigers. A disappointing one I’d imagine in the minds of most Mizzou fans. Though they were the sole SEC team to defeat their B1G opponent in a Bowl game this year, so there is that.
Regardless, there is a need for new playmakers in 2025 to return the Tigers to the trajectory that they appeared to be on in 2023. Sometimes creating CFF magic is all about being in the right place at the right time. Is that the case here with Coleman? Let’s take a look…
Coaching & System
WR1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 12.5 — OC: 14.41 (half ppr)
Eli Drinkwitz is the man who calls himself head coach of the Tigers, and he has been with the program since 2020. His OC, Kirby Moore, joined his staff in 2023 by way of Fresno State. His offences with the Bulldogs were friendly to the WR position. Jalen Cropper, in particular, had a productive season in 2022, surpassing 1000 yards receiving under Moore’s tutelage.
Moore immediately brought that success to Missouri. In his first season working with Luther Burden, the star sophomore from East St. Louis had the best season of his career, going for over 1000 yards and scoring a total of 11 times. Burden was also used in the run game as the Tigers schemed up ways to get him his touches.
In addition to Burden, the Tigers’ WR2, Theo Wease, also moves on as he is out of eligibility. Wease will take with him 100 targets, 884 yards and four scores (13.3 PPG). Between the two, that’s close to 200 targets, 1500 yards and 10 scores that the Tigers will replace on offence. Of course, it’s possible the offence just takes a massive step back in 2025, and doesn’t end up really replacing either of these players’ production.
But at the very least there will be plenty of opportunities for Coleman, or whoever else, in the receiving game. And, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that the Tigers will be making a change at QB next season. Brady Cook moves on, and PSU transfer QB Beau Pribula transfers in. Pribula is a question mark entering the year, as he’s been Drew Allar’s backup
One thing to note is that while Eli Drinkwitz’ WR1 target share has been pretty volatile over the last six years, Moore’s has been consistently over 21% over the last three seasons. We can see that in the two years of overlap (2023-2024), the target shares were 32 and 21%, respectively.
In addition, thanks to Joe (Purple Reign), we can also see the typical role of the WR1. In each case, there isn’t really a clear role that dominates the WR1 spot. Burden was moved to the slot after his freshman year, and that’s the data you see for both Drinkwitz and Moore in 2023 and 2024. Outside of Burden, it seems Drinkwitz’ WR1 was usually a boundary player, which is typically the case.
Coleman’s physique suggests he’s more appropriately used in the slot, so he could be a like-for-like replacement for Burden. However, it remains to be seen where he’ll line up in the offence.
Both of Drink and Moore average a run-first offence, with Drink averaging a 55/45 split over the last six seasons, and Moore averaging a 54/46 split over the last three. Both of their offences average around 26 seconds per play, which is around the FBS average.
Kevin Coleman (5’11, 180)
2024 STATS: 74 (106) - 932 - 6 (16.9 PPG)2
Coleman, originally a high four star from St. Louis, Missouri, has been a little bit of everywhere so far in his career. Stops at Jackson State, MS, Louisville, KY, back to Mississippi to play for the Bulldogs in the SEC, and now, finally, back to where it all started in the state of Missouri.
Sheesh, this guy moves around more than Marty Byrde—I hope he isn’t on the run from any Mexican drug cartels… Probably just FSU fans he spurned after his flip to coach Prime back in 2022.
Coleman, as mentioned, was a very highly rated recruit coming out of the class of 2022. 247’s Allen Trieu compared him to NFL wide receiver Diontae Johnson, and said this in his evaluation when Coleman was a senior in high school:
Very quick, sudden prospect who creates a lot of separation with his explosiveness out of his breaks. Makes cuts at full speed. Excellent in the open field. Has good timed speed and accelerates quickly.
Very good hands and ball skills. Catches the ball comfortably away from his body and in traffic over the middle.
Has to keep getting stronger. Not the biggest receiver, but fits very well in today's spread out offenses. Will be a playmaker who can work short to intermediate routes and go the distance after the catch.
Has also made plays as a return man and wildcat quaterback and can score in a variety of ways. Polished and competitive, which can lead to early impact at the next level and a potential career after college.
Evidently, Coleman offers a lot of the same skills Burden did, which makes this fit pretty snug. Obviously, there are a lot of targets leaving the room regardless, so I’m sure Mizzou’s staff will scheme ways to find Coleman anyway.
The Tigers also brought in a transfer RB, ULM’s Ahmad Hardy, whom they will probably lean on in the ground game. Will this be a more run-oriented team à la the 2021 Mizzou Tigers with Tyler Badie? Or something resembling more what we saw in 2023 with Burden and Wease? That will be a relevant question on CFF drafters’ minds when assessing where they take Coleman.
The nice thing about Kirby Moore and those Fresno offences was that they produced productive RBs and WRs, often in the same years. It was a function of efficiency on offence, as well as a propensity to utilize the same players at each position a lot.
The 2023 iteration of Kirby Moore’s offence would be a good example to reference in this case. Cody Schrader was a very productive RB, and Luther Burden was also a top WR in CFF. We know that there is a precedent for this sort of thing with this staff.
It’s odd that Coleman wasn’t more productive at Louisville, though he was likely just stuck behind other players as a true sophomore. His having already been productive in the SEC from his 2024 campaign gives me confidence that he can reproduce this effort given the right circumstances.
That being said, it should be noted that Mississippi State was very poor in 2024, which could mean a lot of different things as far as we’re concerned with Coleman. It could mean that Coleman was just so good, that despite the other teams’ attention being on him, he popped off anyway. That’s the optimistic take.
The other way one could argue is that the team was poor, playing in blowouts often which meant garbage time scoring, and Coleman was just the biggest fish in a little pond with the Bulldogs, so he saw a lot of targets. That’s a little less flattering, and offers a more pessimistic view on what is possible here in 2025.
But I—ever the optimist—choose to see the good in people first. I think this is an exciting transfer. I like the fit, and I like the opportunity that presents itself here with the targets leaving the room. I think Coach Moore will be able to utilize Coleman in a variety of ways on offence similar to what they did with Burden, which should mean that at the very least Coleman is a CFF relevant player in 2025. The QB play concerns me. I think it’s too soon to say where I’d value Coleman in a CFF context, but my initial inclination is to say that this is a mid-round type of player in re-draft formats. ◾
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Sample of 2018-2024, excluding the 2020 season.
Half ppr.