Say Hello to Toledo's (Potential) 2025 MAC Daddy
(John) I just got delivered a black fucking hand to the house. From Luca Changretta.
Jesus! Jesus Christ!…Wait a minute, John, which one was Luca?
- Arthur Shelby, The Peaky Blinders
***RING RING***
“Hello”
“Arthur its John, sorry to call late. I just got delivered a stuffed f***ing pig to the house. From VP.”
“Jesus! Jesus Christ!… Wait a minute, John, what does that mean?”
“It means he’s found another MAC Daddy.”
***BLEEP***
It’s that time of year again—the festive season—and with it brings tides of good news. Indeed, not only do presents arrive in physical form, but so too does the transfer portal come bearing gifts as well. One such gift this offseason came via former Arizona State, Ohio State, & Kentucky (I’m running out of room here) athlete Chip Trayanum to Toledo, one of the Mid American Conference’s (MAC) proudest programs.
This past year was a special one in the MAC. Most notably because it was a season that produced a MAC Daddy whose legacy will echo in the halls of CFF lore for eternity. That player, of course, was Bowling Green’s TE Harold Fannin, who broke multiple records on his way to a monster season.
Performances like his 2024 campaign are special, and indeed, do not come along every year. Last season (2023) for example, there was a dearth of player performances that could pass as ‘MAC Daddy’ standard even in an off year. It left many, including and especially me, very disappointed.
Ironically, perhaps the best individual performance out of the MAC in 2023 was a former Toledo RB transfer, Detroit’s very own Peny Boone, by way of Maryland. Boone of course transferred out and has since become intimately familiar with the UCF bench. The Rockets replaced him with a running back room by committee in 2024... Is that me vomiting on the carpet just now as I read this out loud to myself? Yes it is.
And the thing is—unfortunately for us—Trayanum wasn’t the only RB transfer brought in this offseason. Kenji Christian, a transfer from the FCS level, was brought in from North Carolina AT&T. Christian had a forgettable season in 2024, but did approach 1000 total yards in 2023. He is listed at 6’2, 200 pounds, from Alabama.
Trayanum’s profile projects better. He has experience playing RB at Arizona State, briefly for OSU, and then some this season for Kentucky. He stands at a very Peny Boone-esque 5’11, 227 pounds.
As usual, let’s take a look at what the patterns of the staff are to gain a better understanding of what to expect from this offence in 2025.
Coaching & System
RB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 14.6 — OC: 14.131 (half ppr)
Jason Candle is the head coach and has been with the program in some capacity since 2009. In fact, this is the only FBS program he’s coached at in his career. He started out coaching WRs and TEs, and was named the head coach in 2016. With an extensive sample of play calling, we have reliable data on his habits.
Going back to 2012 (his first season as OC), Toledo has produced eight 1000-yard rushers in 11 seasons not including the COVID year. The list of names in that esteemed group include Bryant Koback, who even in 2018 when he didn’t surpass 1000 yards rushing still scored 14 times, as well as other names like Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson.
Within his last six full seasons, Candle’s RB1 has averaged about a third of the team carry share per season. However, this percentage varies quite a bit season-to-season. It has gone as high as 44% in 2021 (Bryant Koback) to as low as 23% in 2022 when it was a full committee approach.
There are two OCs listed per the Toledo website. Mike Hallet and Robert Weiner have both been with Candle in these roles since 2021. Thus, their numbers will look identical over the last four seasons to Candle’s.
It’s important to note that despite the success of pumping out 1000-yard rushing seasons, these performances don’t come out of huge rushing volume. Kareem Hunt in 2016 holds the most single-season carries of a Jason Candle RB1 at 262, but most RBs at Toledo finish closer to 200.
That is to say, Toledo has been a very effective rushing team over the last decade in the MAC. The success of their individual RB1s is due in large part to high efficiency on a per touch basis. You can see from Table 1. that the years where there was one lead rusher (2019, 2021, 2023) that the RB1 averaged over six yards per carry. It’s unlikely that Trayanum will see more than 250 carries even if everything goes exactly as CFFers hope.
Now let’s look at some more advanced stats; Candle, who is the primary play caller from what I can tell, averages a 56/44 split in favour of the run game. His Rockets have hovered between 24-25 seconds per play since 2018, and ran around 67 plays per game in 2024, which is about average in the FBS.
Chip Trayanum (5’11, 227)
2024 STATS: 19 - 101 - 0 (3.4 PPG)
Trayanum is originally from Ohio, so I suppose it’s no surprise that he would end up back in the Buckeye state. He committed to Herm Edwards’ Arizona State Sun Devils coming out of high school as a four star LB/RB prospect in the class of 2020. His freshman season was actually his best season to-date from a rushing perspective, as he scored four TDs in four games and averaged about 13.6 PPG.
He started 2021 off decently with a two score performance, but was later injured and missed the rest of September. His first game back was a success vs. UCLA, where he rushed for 62 yards on 16 carries and a score. Unfortunately, his performance tapered off the rest of the year, save for a nice game vs. Wazzou, and his year ended in disappointment.
He then transferred to Ohio State where he’d move back to the linebacker position. This lasted throughout most of the season but a rash of injuries thrust Trayanum back into the tailback role vs. Michigan, where he took 14 carries for 83 yards as OSU’s primary runner on the day.
In 2023 he found himself in a primary role as a rusher once more vs. Maryland, taking 20 carries for 61 yards, which isn’t very efficient, much like his entire 2023 season. His performance at OSU, for whatever reason, declined steadily during his time.
That decline continued in 2024, as Trayanum played in only three games (due to injury). However, when he was playing, he did average a much better YPC compared to his 2023 season with his limited touches.
We are now four years removed from his breakout season as a freshman at ASU, so who knows what’s left in the tank here. On the other hand, when you look at how many ‘dead’ P4 castoffs the MAC has resuscitated over the years, you can never write a player like this off. Trayanum has played in some of the biggest programs in CFB, and showed flashes of elite talent early on at ASU.
Like so many MAC players, this move could go in any direction with equal probability. He could find himself leading the league in rushing in 2025 (or tackles), or just as easily vanish off into the ether as many before him have. It’s a real crossroads league, and if you can’t play the game, or you just don’t love the game enough, you’ll quickly find that out about yourself.
As for Trayanum, I’ll be holding my breath that he can recapture his 2020 form with a few late-round flyers in bestball drafts this offseason. Normally I’d say ‘let’s wait and see’ with an article at this stage of the offseason, but there’s no need to delude ourselves that spring camp will bring any meaningful information to use here. The MAC is surely not for the faint of heart. ◾
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Sample size of 2018-2024 excluding the covid season.