Signs Pointing Towards UGA's First 1000-Yard Tailback Since... 2019?!
Came from the trenches, I’m living like a pop star.
- Future, musician
It may shock the readers to know that UGA, the so called ‘RBU’ of college football, is currently on a five-season drought of 1000-yard rushers. D’Andre Swift in 2019 was the last runner to surpass the millenary mark with 1218 yards on the ground.
Daijun Edwards had 1000 yards total in 2023 (880 rushing, 190 receiving), ditto for Kenny McIntosh in 2022 (829 rushing, 504 receiving) and James Cook in 2021, but the lack of rushing productivity is a disturbing trend. This unfortunate trend is not due to poor rushing performance, but a rather damning and unrelenting tendency to spread carries around from the staff.
The 2024 team had a player worthy of monopolizing touches in Trevor Etienne, in my opinion. However, unlike the other years, this actually was a season where the team was poor at running the football. The offensive line struggled to be consistent over the course of the campaign, and this undoubtedly hurt the productivity of the RBs. Etienne also dealt with injuries which affected his performance down the stretch.
If not for the poor offensive line performance, I think the conditions were here such that there could have easily been a 1000 yard runner via Etienne (if he stayed healthy) and/or Frazier. Both runners looked as impressive to me as any UGA RB since Swift in 2019.
Now Etienne moves on to the NFL (and is lighting up the senior bowl), leaving the backfield to Frazier, who himself was thrust into the feature back role as a freshman at times during the 2024 campaign. So he’s already got his feet wet, so to speak.
The runners behind him include the Robinsons (Branson and Rod, not related), each bigger backs who are coming off major injuries. They both missed time in 2024 (Branson missed the whole season). The two other freshmen in Frazier’s class include speedster Dwight Phillips, and Chauncy ‘Thunder Thighs’ Bowens. Bowens looked incredible in high school while in Florida and he’s a real threat to absorb carries in 2025. Cash Jones also returns as a third down running back.
Phillips remains more of a gadget player who I’d imagine will be used like James Cook was for most of his tenure with UGA (limited rushing touches). The Robinsons are a question mark on each.
Beyond the RB room the QB position is also turning over. Carson Beck is taking his talents to South Beach and Gunner Stockton figures to be the next man up. Stockton is more of a runner than Carson but he’s not what I would describe as a running QB. However, his lesser passing ability probably means the composition of the offence leans more into the run game in 2025.
Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately), the offensive line is also seeing significant turnover. Is this a good thing? Seemingly so, right, given the play was poor in 2024. On the other hand, this means a lot of young, unproven players will be thrust into the fire this upcoming season, so at the very least we just don’t know what to expect.
It’s hard to imagine that Kirby will let UGA’s poor rushing persist over the course of two seasons. 2024 felt like an anomaly, because it was. This team under Kirby—excluding last season—has always rushed the football successfully.
This brings me back to Nate Frazier, a former high four star from Compton, California. At times, Frazier looked like the best RB on UGA from a pure rushing perspective. He’s the best returning offensive weapon on the team.
UGA brought in several transfers at WR but none at RB (as of writing). The vote of confidence speaks volumes. But none of it really matters if the system is poor. With that in mind, let’s take a look…
Coaching & System
RB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 14.1 — OC: 14.81 (half ppr)
At least half of the UGA fanbase hates OC Mike Bobo and for good reason, this guy looks like a dork. However, criticisms of his offensive play calling are a bit harsh in my opinion. The offence in 2023 was good. The same can’t be said about 2024 but a lot of that was probably due to personnel.
While Kirby’s PPG average at RB is pretty consistent around 15 points, Bobo’s RB1 PPGs have fluctuated considerably in the last five seasons. The best one being 2019’s Marvin Kinsey Jr., who rushed for 703 yards and six scores in seven games. Kinsey also caught 16 passes for 209 yards and two scores.
It’s not like the RB1 doesn’t command huge carry share under Bobo (every RB1 since 2018 averaged over 30% carry share). Some of those RBs even averaged over 17 carries per game (Kinsey, CSU and Tank Bigsby, Auburn).
It’s ironic that Bobo coached Bigsby at Auburn given that he likely would have signed with UGA out of high school if not for the staff waiting too long on the ever enigmatic wunderkind from Houston, Zach Evans.
Bobo’s averages aren’t exactly kingmaker worthy but they’re good enough to work with. Looking at Smart’s averages, it’s a little more bleak. The man loves to rotate players everywhere. With the exception of QB and CB, I don’t think there’s any position on the field that is safe from Smart’s incessant compulsion to swap players out. Apparently this is good for winning championships but who the fuck cares about that when you haven’t had a top-10 CFF RB finish in years.
Even when looking at Swift’s 2019 season, he only averaged 14 carries per game. In his 2018 season he actually averaged more points per game because he scored more TDs, but he only averaged around 11-12 carries per contest. You basically have to average over six yards per carry in this offence otherwise you’re not going to hit 100 yards rushing most games.
But it should be noted that part of these historical system numbers occurred in the pre-crazy NIL/portal era of CFB. Depth among elite programs is as thin as it’s ever been now, and a player like Frazier, who’s clearly the best at his position, is probably going to get more work than he would have had on the 2021-2022 teams, for example.
One of the silver linings about Smart & Bobo is that at least their RB1s see significant receiving volume. Each coach averages over two targets per game, with some seasons seeing over three targets per game for the RB1. That might not seem like a lot but consider that these are usually short passes (making them all but guaranteed to be completed) and thus potentially add an additional two to three points a game to the RB1s total depending on the format you play.
You don’t think something like that would be relevant until something like this happens to you:
Then you never question the marginal advantages—such as receiving touches for the RBs—involved in this game ever again. It’s a game of inches, after all.
Tendencies. As for the tendencies of the staff, it probably doesn’t come as a surprise that Smart averages a 55/45 run to pass split. Bobo’s five year average is more balanced at around 47/53 run to pass split. That being said, UGA averaged 55 passes to 45 runs last year, but that was probably due to having QB Carson Beck returning.
Pacing. Smart wants his offence to control the clock, and his five year average tracks with this preference. His Dawgs have averaged around 28 seconds per play since 2018. Bobo is more aligned with the FBS average around 25 seconds per play, but his UGA offences have been his slowest so far tracking around 28-29 seconds per play. Suffice to say, Kirby Smart is probably the overriding influence here.
Scheme. Georgia is an Outside Zone run scheme program. Their most frequent run plays in 2024 were: zone counter, outside zone, pitch, and end around.
Nate Frazier (5’10, 210)
2024 RUSHING STATS: 133 - 671 - 8 (10.4 PPG)2
Frazier split carries in high school playing at California heavyweight Mater Dei, so his rushing stats weren’t as jaw dropping as some of the other backs we’ve seen coming into college. However, he proved in 2024 that he’s one of the best RBs in his class, and probably one of the best returning RBs in CFB for 2025.
UGA apparently wanted to add a RB in the December portal window, but struggled to do so given Frazier’s presence on the depth chart. They will likely try again in the spring, but the fact that everyone knows Frazier is the #1 probably means whoever agrees to come in will be playing a backup role.
While Frazier struggled with fumbles early on in the season, he cleaned up his handling in the second half of the season and became a reliable runner. He was also used in the receiving game, catching 12 of his 16 targets for 85 yards on the year.
Frazier was a member for 247 Sports’ Freak List for 2024, and was also a track star in high school running multiple sub 11.00 times in the 100M (ran a 10.7 as a sophomore).
His strengths are his speed and twitch, but he is also a violent runner who slashes threw traffic. This is what 247’s Greg Biggins said about Frazier in high school:
Frazier has a really nice combination of power and speed. He’s one of the fastest backs in the country with a personal best 10.58-100m as a junior.
He has a strong body and runs hard between the tackles. He’s definitely not a track guy playing football and there is nothing soft in how he runs. He’s a decisive runner who is at full speed after just a few strides. He’s a true home run threat who can score from anywhere and shows very good hands out of the backfield as well.
Actually started out at receiver and didn’t play running back full time until midway though his junior season. Not as instinctive as other backs and needs to continue to improve on changing speeds and setting up his blocks.
Has the kind of all around game that should allow to play in any situation and be an every down back. With his explosiveness, versatility and toughness, Frazier has a chance to be an early impact player at the Power 5 level.
Closing
It’s hard to command all of the carries at UGA. Unless the second coming of Herschel Walker walks through the door, we’re probably not going to see a 250+ carry player under Kirby. Can Frazier get to 200 total touches? This is a more interesting question in my mind and I think it is possible given that there will be a new starter at QB.
Frazier will probably be a much better bestball option compared to a standard format asset. I don’t see him being a consistently strong producer but I do see him having several big games in 2025. It’ll just be hard to know ahead of time when those will be. ◾
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Sample 2018-2024 excluding 2020.
Full ppr.