The B1G's Most Productive WR in 2024 Will Play for... Illinois?? 🤨
The B1G's Most Productive WR in 2024 Will Play for... Illinois?? 🤨
And no, I didn't forget about Evan Stewart or Emeka Egbuka...
Not from Chi City but I make the Illi-nois.
- Tyga, musician
When I think of the name Brett Bielema, the first image that pops into my head is the nine-man offensive lineman package, aptly named ‘Barge Ball’ that the Illini executed a few seasons ago. During the 2021 season this display of utter gluttony made the rounds on social media, perhaps hinting that the good people on ‘X’ aren’t all lost causes after all—well, a few of them at least.
“That’s football. That’s how football is supposed to be played . . . we’re just trying to hold onto the football and be a good run team.” Illinois’ TE coach said at the time.
This formation—a shining beacon of hope for Volume Pigs everywhere—isn’t even Bielema’s creation if you can believe it. Known football genius and former Pittsburgh Steeler’s OC Matt Canada is credited with birthing this depraved mechanism of CFF goodness.
Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to track down an old image of that; but it was as glorious as you’d imagine it to be. In fact, immediately upon seeing that alignment I instructed the VP interns to send Brett one of my Christmas stuffed pigs early that year, which I know for a fact Bielema appreciated. Here’s a meme of that formation anyways:
However, the perception that many of us may have regarding the Fighting Illini being solely a ground-and-pound outfit, with little-to-no value in the WR room, is categorically false.
This April, Isaiah Williams was signed to the Detroit Lions of the NFL. Williams is coming off a 131(!) target season, where he went over 1000 yards receiving and scored five times in 12 games (~18.6 PPG in 1PPR formats) .
Williams’ partner in crime, Casey Washington, also declared for the NFL Draft and was selected by the Atlanta Falcons in the sixth round. Washington takes with him 74 targets, 49 receptions, 670 yards and four scores (~11.7 PPG).
You’re probably thinking based on the target numbers that there couldn’t possibly be another WR on the team who was CFF relevant. Certainly not on a Brett Bielema ground-and-output outfit, right?
Think again—WR3 Pat Bryant (who returns in 2024) was targeted 66 times, of which he caught 43 of those for 560 yards and seven scores (11.8 PPG). And here’s another fact that might blow your mind: Illinois was the FBS’ 23rd fastest offence in 2023, averaging 24 seconds per play.
For some context, other teams around that range include Washington State and Florida Atlantic. Of course, whenever you think of a Brett Bielema led team, you naturally assume his peers would be Tom Herman’s high flying passing attack, and Wazzou’s derivation of the Zack Kittley air-raid offence…
Coming back to the topic at hand: that’s a lot of vacated targets with a productive WR3 returning; plus last year’s starting(ish) QB also returns… are you thinking what I’m thinking?
“Pat Bryant is going to be an absolute VOLUME PIG in 2024… thanks for the heads up, VP”.
Don’t mention it. I mean, someone’s gotta do it, right? And sure, my doctorate might be in Pig-osophy rather than medicine; but I view myself in the same light as a medical professional would all the same—I’m just doing my job. Let’s get into this thing.
Coaching & System
WR1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 12 — OC: 14.21 (half ppr)
Illinois retains both its head coach and offensive coordinator from a year ago (Brett Bielema and Barry Lunney). They do, however, replace their WRs coach, who took the same job at Ole Miss.
Not that the position coach is really a make-or-break factor here, but I did find this text encouraging from a report in March:
Early returns are positive for new Illinois wide receivers coach Justin Stepp. The former South Carolina and Arkansas assistant had big shoes to fill after George McDonald left Illinois for Ole Miss after a successful tenure that included the development of current NFL Draft prospects Isaiah Williams and Casey Washington, who are vying to be the first Illini wide receivers drafted since A.J. Jenkins in 2011.
But Williams recently relayed to Bielema that the returning Illini receivers are “buzzin’ about Stepp.”
That’s good news for a group that returns starter Pat Bryant (43 receptions, 560 yards, 7 TDs), likely the Illini’s No. 1 wideout next season, and a pair of talented sophomores: former four-star prospect Malik Elzy and Ashton Hollins.
When the job opened up, I had a bunch of people reach out to me, but Barry and I both knew of Justin. He was a guy who literally came up on our list right away,” Bielema said. “Brought in a couple guys, but I think if you talk to our guys, I don’t know if I’ve had a coach since I’ve been here who has come in and made an immediate impact with the room.
Pat Bryant, I was a little worried about. … Geo was a fantastic coach, so to replace a coach of that caliber, you’re always very cautious about who you’re bringing in. The reaction has been unbelievable.
Stepp has an impressive history of developing several NFL prospects at wide receiver at SMU (2015-17), Arkansas (2018-19) and South Carolina (2020-22), including Xavier Legette (2023 Second Team All-SEC), Antwane Wells Jr. (2022 First Team All-SEC), Jalen Brooks (2023 seventh-round pick), Treylon Burks (2022 first-round pick), Courtland Sutton (2018 second-round pick) and Trey Quinn (2018 seventh-round pick).
I find it encouraging that the names listed there who were developed by Stepp are all bigger body guys just like Bryant. You’ll also notice that the writer is under the impression that Bryant will be taking over as WR1.
As mentioned, last year’s lead receiver, Isaiah Williams, averaged a stellar 18+ PPG. The previous season, his average wasn’t quite as strong, finishing 2022 with around 13 PPG. Bryant already averaged a similar PPG to Williams’ 2022 season last year, and with the offloaded passing volume via Williams and Washington, it feels like his production should increase in ‘24. Bearing in mind that we saw Illinois feature three receivers heavily last year, and that’ll probably be the case again this year.
So while yes, Bryant may very well be WR1 on the team, a lot of those vacated targets are probably going to spread to guys like Malik Elzy as well. Nonetheless, I think there’s reason for optimism with Bryant.
I also mentioned earlier that last year’s starting(ish) QB Luke Altmyer returns. Altmyer passed for just over 1880 yards, and 13 TDs to 10 INTs. These numbers seeming a bit low? That’s because John Paddock saw a lot of snaps as well, mostly due to Altmyer’s health. Paddock passed for 1278 yards and nine scores to three INTs.
Those shoddy QB numbers make the fact that Williams averaged over 18 PPG even more impressive. I’m expecting Altmyer to be the full-time starter in ‘24, and (perhaps naively) that he will improve on his play from a year ago, which was his first season starting (ever the optimist, aren’t you VP?).
Coming back to the staff, it may interest the reader to know that OC Barry Lunney previously served as the OC at UTSA (2020-21) before joining Illinois in 2022. Former UTSA stud WR Zakhari Franklin led Lunney’s WR room in 2021 with 81 receptions for 1027 yards and 12 scores. So if you were thinking that Isaiah Williams’ season was just a one-off under this staff; once again, I implore you to think again.
Below is a summary of some of the relevant stats for today’s discussion. We can see that every year that Bielema has been with Illinois, his WR1 has garnered a 25% target share or higher. However, because Bielema’s teams average about a 55/45 run pass split, this target share didn’t coincide with a huge amount of targets per game each season. Notably, in 2021 his WR1 only averaged 6.9 targets per game, which is solid, but not necessarily something magical.
If we take a look at Lunney’s recent track record (Table 2), his tendencies are even better (as it relates to the WRs), with his WR1 seeing 27% or higher target share each year for the last three seasons. Lunney is similar to Bielema with a 54/46 run/pass split over the past three seasons. Note that the COVID season has been omitted from the tables.
When you think of the ingredients for CFF success at the WR position; historical WR1 target share being above 25% and a fast moving offence would be two of the variables at the top of the list. Unfortunately the run/pass split dampers the profile, as does the QB play.
Pat Bryant — 6’3, 200
2023 STATS: 43-560-7 (11.8 PPG)
There’s an old saying that CFF wisemen used to chant around campfires in the Southeast (shrooms usually being involved), and that is: you’ll never go broke betting on players from Florida. Bryant, the rising senior out of Jacksonville is an intriguing name ahead of the 2024 season.
His frame suggests he’s probably not going to be the one who replaces Williams in the slot, but he could end up being the one replacing a lot of Williams’ production. Add that onto his already solid 2023 campaign, and you have a potentially bariatric recipe brewing here.
Bryant appeared in 10 games as a true freshman in 2021, though his stats were unremarkable. He caught six of his 11 targets for 98 yards and zero scores. His sophomore season is when he established himself into the WR rotation. Over 12 games played, Bryant caught 34 of 55 targets for 453 yards and two scores (7.4 PPG) in 2022.
The former three star joined Illinois in the 2021 class, with other offers from Florida State, Penn State, Miami, UCF, Arkansas and others.
He unfortunately was not given a qualitative evaluation by 247 Sports, but they did list some relevant high school achievements:
2019: Florida Times Union All-First Coast first-team selection; Participated in the Legend's Football All-Florida Junior Showcase.
2018: FloridaHSFootball.com 7A All-State third-team selection as a returner after averaging 14.4 yards a punt return and returning one for a score.
Closing
Pat Bryant currently holds an ADP of 314.8 according to Campus2Canton. That’s approximately the 26th round in a standard 12 team format, and implies he would go undrafted in a typical CFF redraft league.
He’s a definite buy at current value for me in both standard and bestball formats. In CFF, there are certain indicators you want to heed to project for future value. Targets for WRs are a crucial part of that equation.
If you’re of the mind that Bryant is going to receive over 100 targets in 2024, I think he’s a no-brainer to draft even within the top 16 rounds of CFF re-drafts. ◾
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Numbers quoted from a sample size of 2018-23