The Best Receiver From the Class of 2024 May Not be Jeremiah Smith...
The Best Receiver From the Class of 2024 May Not be Jeremiah Smith...
(and he could go over 1000 yards this season)
The iceman cometh.
- Mr. Freeze, Batman & Robin (1997)
Far be it from me to commit the unthinkable—comparing an Auburn man to a Georgia Bulldog—but one can’t help it if Cam Coleman’s sprawling catch on a deep pass from Hank Brown in the spring game didn’t look like an almost carbon-copy to George Pickens’ diving catch against Alabama in the natty a few seasons ago. I know Auburn fans were fired up about that play, now just imagine if it had been against someone else’s defence. Well, you might not have to much longer.
Coleman, the true freshman from Phenix City, looks primed to occupy a starting position in the WR rotation this year, just as GP did for Georgia in 2019. Also like Pickens, Coleman’s QB service may not exactly be the stuff pig dreams are made of this season. However, unlike with Pickens, the system here at Auburn under Hugh ‘Iceman’ Freeze has a history of featuring its WR1 (more on this later).
Cam ‘Batman’ Coleman and his sidekick, Perry ‘Robin’ Thompson form an exciting freshman duo for the Tigers this year. Both of these players were flips under Freeze— Coleman swapping Aggie maroon for Blue and Orange, Thompson swapping in-state allegiances from Tide to Tiger. However, Coleman is the only one of the two who currently figures to occupy a starting role in the rotation. Georgia State transfer Robert Lewis and Penn State transfer Keandre Lambert Smith round out the projected depth chart at WR.
While KLS wasn’t yet with Auburn during the spring game, it was evident for all to see who the big dog on campus was. Coleman announced himself to the world with the aforementioned diving grab off of Brown’s arm. He later went on to finish the day with four receptions for 92 yards and a score. Here is a note post-spring game:
Beginning with the obvious, there wasn't anyone who was more exciting than Coleman. The early enrollee was targeted five times, catching four of those passes for 92 yards and a score. The attempt he couldn't haul in may have been his best effort, as he reached around the back of cornerback Colton Hood and nearly corralled the ball.
"He made a couple MAs (missed assignments) in the tight red zone today on balls that we were hoping to throw him down there," coach Hugh Freeze said of Coleman. "Kind of got us in trouble and made us kick some field goals. That's on us. We've got to clean it up and make sure he knows the whole system and what he can do. But when he knows what to do, he's really, really talented."
As is usually the case with incoming freshman players, it sounds like Coleman doesn’t really know what he’s doing yet. That’s okay, most of that will figure itself out by the season. The quote from Freeze regarding Coleman’s undeniable talent is noteworthy, however.
I recall Pickens’ first offseason with the Dawgs. He too was putting on a clinic in camp and made—still to do this day—one of the best catches I’ve ever seen. It was evident he was going to play a big role on a team that needed WRs to step up that year, the question was: how much of the playbook could he learn, and would he buy into doing all the other stuff (e.g., blocking). The answer to the latter was an emphatic ‘yes’, he passed that one with flying colours.
Pickens finished his first season leading UGA with 49 receptions for 727 yards and eight scores. Pretty good for a true frosh in the SEC (one that was OC’d by James Coley no less). It doesn’t feel out of the question that Coleman could do something similar. The trump card that he’ll have over GP here is that the guy who’s calling his plays has a history of funnelling a lot of targets to his WR1 (over 30% share twice in the last five years, in fact). Let’s talk a little bit more about this.
Coaching & System
WR1 PPG AVERAGE: 13.17 (half PPR)1
Hugh Freeze is the head coach of Auburn, in case you didn’t know. His OC is a man named Derrick Nix. Now I know what you’re wondering, and the answer is no—he is not related to Bo. He also doesn’t have any history of play calling experience to draw on. He spent the previous 16 years at Ole Miss, 12 as running backs coach and the last four as the Rebels' wide receivers coach.
That’s okay, because I’m pretty sure the guy who’s calling the shots on offence is the Ice Man himself. Freeze has an interesting profile. His overall average in terms of tendencies is about a 56/44 run/pass split. In fact, this past season his Tigers averaged a 61% run rate. Not very becoming of a potential WR kingmaker you say. Well, peep this (ignore the projections):
From the above chart we see that Freeze’s WR1 averaged a gargantuan 31.4 and 30.5 percent target share in 2019 and 2022, respectively. The other two seasons? A much more pedestrian 17.5 and 8.5 percent. Indeed, Freeze is quite an enigmatic figure.
But what do these target shares actually produce? The 2022 season is a good case study to understand Freeze’s offences. Yes, Demario Douglas dominated target share, but he still finished with less than a thousand yards receiving with 993 and six scores. He caught 79 passes, which is good, but not quite what you’d hope for when you originally see the target share number. The underwhelming production numbers are due to the fact that the team was a run-heavy team; so while it’s true that when they passed it was going to Douglas approximately one out of every three passes (amazing), they didn’t attempt enough passes to really create the CFF magic you’d like to see.
Still, when a player has 79 receptions you’d expect them to go over 1000 yards and score more than six times. In fact, that’s exactly what Freeze’s WR1 in 2019 did with his 31.4% target share. Antonio Gandy Golden caught 79 passes for 1396 yards and 10 scores. That’s a little more like it.
Freeze’s program moved at an average clip last season with 26.2 seconds per play, which was 72nd among FBS programs. Typically the more run heavy teams are going to be slower on a seconds per play basis, but what is important here for the reader is to note whether the system is typically a fast offence, an averaged paced offence, or a slow one. Freeze’s historical track record at both Auburn and Liberty lends itself to the middle.
Some of you may recall that Freeze also spent some time at Ole Miss in the 2010s. His five seasons with the Rebels yielded one 1000-yard WR in Laquon Treadwell. He spent one year as the head coach of Arkansas State before that in 2011, and his leading receiver finished with 1156 yards on 94 receptions.
Cam Coleman (6’3, 190)
As is typically the case with five star prospects, Coleman is a well known name in the CFB world already. While he was rated a five star according to most services for the entire second half of 2023, he was actually something of a late riser as he finished the cycle rated #3 overall on the 247 Composite and #5 overall player on 247’s internal ranking, despite being outside the top 50 in May of his senior year.
I’ve always been partial towards late rising prospects. They usually turn out to be the best players in their classes. Will Anderson and Jalen Carter immediately come to mind from recent cycles. Usually there’s a specific reason why (position change, body transformation, transferred schools and now gets more exposure). You always want to weight evaluators’ assessments more as they get more information.
Coleman, like a good Phenix City native, spurned Alabama and originally committed to Jimbo’s Texas A&M Aggies. When the old regime was cleaned out, he looked elsewhere, turning to Florida State and Auburn.
Every cycle there are a few obvious NIL recruitments and I’d put Coleman in that category. However, if the early returns from spring are any indication that appears to be money well spent. Here’s what 247’s Cooper Petegna said about Coleman in his evaluation coming out of high school:
Verified at 6-foot-3 and 180-pounds plus, possesses an athletic frame with growth potential to add an additional fifteen to twenty pounds to his frame on Saturdays. Possesses outstanding verified athletic ability at the receiver position, showing the ability to operate out of the slot and on the perimeter.
Explosive straight line receiver that exhibits good initial quickness off the line of scrimmage and in and out of breaks at the top of the route. Possesses excellent play and verified speed, in addition to showing the ability to change gears and accelerate to top end speed quickly. Regarded as more of a vertical threat as a junior, shown ability to expand his route tree and develop into a much more polished version of a route runner as as a senior.
Exhibits the ability to create consistent separation with size, speed, quickness, and leaping ability. Flashes some natural pass catching ability, plus shows the ability to attack the football in contested areas. Plays above the rim down the field and possesses some of the best jump ball ability of any pass catching prospect in the country. Demonstrates good play strength at the catch point and as a run after catch receiver, a part of his game that will most likely be accentuated at the next level.
Projects as an immediate contributor at the next level and a potential Day-1 NFL Draft choice with a rare combination of size, speed, and athleticism that differentiates him from the rest of his peers.
Will turn eighteen years of age in August of 2024, indicating he's in the infancy stages of his physical growth and on field development.
Ironically—and I swear I didn’t see this before writing this article—Cooper’s comp for Coleman is actually George Pickens... You know what they say about great minds… or, it’s just an obvious comp, there’s that too.
Coleman’s senior year concluded with him catching 61 passes for 1372 yards and 18 TDs. That included an MVP performance in the championship game where he scored a 73-yard touchdown.
Closing
The opportunity to be Freeze’s WR1 this season is here, however there are other veteran players in the fold now, namely KLS and Robert Lewis who will siphon away targets even if Coleman manages to secure that role.
Historically, we saw that Freeze’s WR1 averages around 22% target share, which is good. But, we also saw that his teams skew heavy run usually. With Payton Thorne as the presumed starter this season, we could be in for another heavy dosage of run plays à la IHOP Saturday specials. Or at least, that might be the plan.
I have Coleman included in the Q2 rankings as a player worth taking a shot on for CFF. The reasoning is that there is the opportunity mentioned above, plus the fact that Coleman is extremely talented (based on all indications so far).
Coleman is obviously a hot commodity in C2C and DEVY right now, but what I wasn’t expecting was that Coleman would have ADP data for CFF. He is currently selected at 322.3 according to Campus2Canton, so most likely only a dart throw option in 30-round bestball formats, but his April ADP suggests he’s starting to climb with an ADP of 292.7. I view him as a viable late round option in both standard and bestball drafts, though it is harder to justify taking him in a 16 round format. ◾
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Numbers provided from a subscriber’s model and draw from a sample of 2018-2023.