The CFB Degenerate's Newsletter: The Votes Are In
November. Crows are approaching, wounded leaves fall to the ground…
- Sir Kristian Goldmund Aumann, author
Hello pigs, welcome back. As usual, here are some stat tidbits to kick things off this week:
ONE. There is currently only one wide receiver with over 1000 yards receiving, Tet McMillan, there are seven players with over 1000 yards rushing. There are two players, however, who have over 1000 yards receiving, the other being BGSU TE Harold Fannin.
THREE. Three WRs have double digit TDs and they are all in the G5.
FOUR. Of the top five teams leading in seconds per play (SPP), four of them are G5 teams: USF, ECU, UNT, and Utah St. There is no overlap between the top five teams in SPP and plays run per game. UTSA leads in plays per game with 82.6. USF is fastest in seconds per play with 20.6.
SIX. Six of the current top eight passing yard leaders are transfers.
Battleground State
One of—if not the most—contentious issues in the CFF community is the question of whether systems vs. talent is a better indicator for CFF success. Both camps are heavily populated, with many oscillating between view points depending on the time of the year. Truth be told, this debate will probably never end, as there are merits to both sides.
As an exercise, I decided to take a quick point-in-time assessment of talent vs. system at the RB position this year. To do so, I looked at the top 10 RBs in terms of CFF PPG currently, and compared that against the primary play caller’s historical RB1 average (half ppr). It’s unfortunate that I only have the data measured in half ppr, as I’ll be looking at the top runners in terms of full PPR because those are how points are measured in the leagues I’m in on Fantrax, and I’m too lazy to do the calculation to half ppr manually.
The top runners (PPG) in PPR formats currently (Week 11):
Ashton Jeanty (Boise St.)
Kaleb Johnson (Iowa)
Cameron Skattebo (Arizona St.)
Dylan Sampson (Tenn)
RJ Harvey (UCF)
Mario Anderson (Memphis)
Omarion Hampton (UNC)
Desmond Reid (Pittsburgh)
Bayshul Tuten (Virginia Tech)
Darius Taylor (Minnesota)
The respective play callers (as far as I know) are listed in the figure below, with the corresponding RB1 average (again, in terms of half PPR) prior to this season.
While there are some outliers (Josh Heupel at Tennessee, and Brent Pry at Virginia Tech) by and large the RBs who are scoring the most this year on a per game basis are coming out of strong historical systems. Seven of the top ten RB1s’ primary play callers averaged over 15 PPG in half ppr scoring for their RB1 coming into this year.
I am not counting Pitt in either bucket because the OC, Kade Bell, comes from the FCS and his historical average was not available in my database. Though one could look at the numbers at WCU and draw their own conclusions. Desmond Reid, while not necessarily vacuuming up a ton of volume, finished the last two seasons with the Catamounts going over 1000 yards total, and he scored 13 rushing TDs last season. Overall, if we tracked that average, Reid was probably around or above 15 PPG at WCU.
Experienced CFFers will remember the epic year from Israel Abanikanda, who received over 230 carries in 2022 and scored 20 rushing TDs under Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi. This system would otherwise be a prime example of ‘talent over system’ had it not been for the addition of OC Kade Bell.
Narduzzi’s RB1, dating back to 2018 (excluding 2020), averaged 14.24, 10.49, 11.14, 26.34, and 7.39 PPG in 2023. Abanakanda was simply too good to keep off the field, and thus received a large share of the workload. Those of us who took a chance on Rodney Hammond the following season know firsthand how much this offence pulled back after that season. With Kade Bell, the classification of this system is not as clear. It also doesn’t hurt that Pitt runs one of the fastest offences in CFB (third in seconds per play in the FBS).
Of course, even the (seemingly) most infallible systems, such as the Steve Sarkisian RB1 at Texas, are not exempt from failing you in CFF (Wisner averages around 11 PPG currently, Blue 15.9, but is no longer the starter). Both of these players are averaging a respectable amount of points, but Blue, as a top three round selection in many drafts, is probably safe to label as a bust given that he lost his job a month ago.
This system’s failure is in part due to that midseason switch at RB, but ultimately a key takeaway is that even the best systems require a player of a certain caliber to fully provide a return on what CFF drafters expect when they invest high end capital.
Blindly following historical averages when drafting is probably not the optimal draft strategy. Even as a ‘systems guy’, I’ve always maintained that chasing the next guy after a highly productive runner leaves is probably too simple of an approach, and will many times lead to failure.
Some of the notable examples of this phenomenon from this year include Michigan’s Donovan Edwards, UTjr.’s Jaydon Blue, and to some degree Kaedin Feagin based on Chase Brown’s production two years ago. I’m guilty of falling under this trap, by the way, just to be clear. This is not an ‘I told you so’ post, but rather a mid-season reflection on how things are shaping up and what we can learn from these results.
I think one of the key takeaways for me when looking at RBs in CFF this year is that it is more or less necessary for there to be a historically productive system in place to land in the top of the production bracket, but it is not sufficient for determining success in CFF.
That being said, you are probably more likely to hit a home run with a runner who comes from a historically productive system (will use the acronym ‘HPS’ going forward…), but following that alone is not a guarantee that you will hit value (e.g., Jaydon Blue).
It should also be noted that I am looking at one season in a vacuum here, and only studying the top 10 runners because I’m lazy. So that’s a small sample size. However, it’s been my experience throughout each of my seasons in CFF that the most productive players at the skill positions predominantly come out of HPSs.
I will follow this up with an analysis for the WR position next week to further demonstrate the point. I suspect the key takeaway will once again be: looking at players coming out of HPSs is a good start for finding value in CFF, however, when drafting at the very top (i.e. top three rounds especially), you probably want to keep in mind that there is still significant risk with unproven players.
I still posit that selecting players from an HPS is better than not, and that following systems is still the best way to find value in CFF, but like with most things, there is nuance involved, as well as outliers. As we’ve seen, these outliers (e.g., Josh Heupel with Dylan Sampson), can make a huge difference for your CFF team.
If there’s one takeaway that we can all agree on: it’s that when an above average talent meets an above average system, good things tend to happen (e.g., Ashton Jeanty, Kaleb Johnson). The problem is, and is part of my criticism of the ‘talent’ side of this debate, is that it is very hard to evaluate talent as an outsider for the purposes of CFF. Evaluating systems is very easy and provides a stable base for your analysis that you can have some level of confidence in. Evaluating talent is usually only obvious after the fact.
What say you?
PS. I will be working with
at season’s end to explore more patterns in CFF results. This analysis will be conducted in a more rigorous manner. Stay tuned for that.The Votes Are IN: First Iteration of CFP Rankings Released
Well, as you all know, one of the most important events in human history occurred on Tuesday night. Yes, that’s right, the first iteration of the CFP rankings were released (I’m sure you didn’t see that joke coming from a mile away…)
Prognosticators have argued back and forth for months now on where the votes will go, whose view will triumph on key issues such as: do we value strength of schedule over being undefeated (PSU vs. IU)? Or better yet: how do we compare better wins to better loses (UGA vs. OSU)? These are all important issues that will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of our great society in the near future.
As for me, I don’t have much to say regarding the ordering of the CFP rankings this week. By and large, I think the committee did a good job. One notable event is that Boise State landed in the top 12 of the first ranking.
Why this is notable is because if BSU wins out, they will likely move up in the seeding as other teams in the top 11 still have to play each other. When those matchups occur, one team will (barring unforeseen circumstances) lose to the other, and subsequently move down the rankings (*cough* unless the team’s name is Alabama).
That means that the #5 seed might not end up being all that great in the end. Though regardless of who the 12 seed is, matching up versus the BIG12 champion is probably better than the SEC/B1G champion (apologies to my Big12 subscribers out there).
Speaking of, guess who’s back in the hunt given ISU’s loss on Saturday? That’s right #WeComing. Colorado has quietly (and effectively) dispatched with most of its opponents this season, and are now in prime position to potentially win the Big12. This would guarantee a spot in the CFP—not too bad for Deion’s second year if you ask me. And I’m not even a Deion Sanders fan, but one should acknowledge the tremendous achievements of his program in only two years.
PSU’s resume feels like the same thing every year, “they lost close to Ohio State”. However, Indiana feels like the most fraudulent team currently in the top 12. As a shareholder of QB Kurtis Rourke in CFFNate’s dynasty league, I sincerely hope that they continue their reign of terror, but in the spirit of objectivity, I should acknowledge that they’ve not played anyone worth a damn thus far.
IU’s playoff hopes will essentially come down to this weekend’s game vs. Michigan. Win, and they’re almost assuredly getting in, even with a loss to OSU the next week. Lose and… well, unless they’ve got some SEC stickers to print out and paste on their helmets, they’re out. ◾
More Coaching Carousel News
Ex WVU/Houston head coach Dana Holgerson is bringing a fresh pair of eyes to Nebraska as an offensive consultant.
UCF OC Tim Harris Jr. is expected to take over play calling duties per Gus Malzahn.
Rice have fired head coach Mike Bloomgren.
Coastal Carolina have fired OC Travis Trickett. Head coach Tim Beck takes over as play caller.
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