The CFB Degenerate's Newsletter: The Grass is Greener in Eugene
(Alan Frog) We unraveled in the face of the enemy!
It's not our fault, they pulled a mind scramble on us! They opened their eyes and talked!
- Edgar Frog, The Lost Boys (1987)
Pigs, welcome back. As usual, here are some stats this week:
TWO. The MAC currently has two of the top ten receivers in receiving scores with Kent State’s Crishon McCray (7) and Toledo’s Jerjuan Newton (7). It would appear, at least midway through the season, that recent rumours of the MAC’s CFF demise have been greatly exaggerated.
The MAC also has two of the top eight reception leaders currently and both of those players are TEs(!): BGSU’s Harold Fannin and Ball State’s Tanner Kozial.
Speaking of twos—as far as I know—Illinois’ Pat Bryant is the only non-QB player to have scored two TDs in overtime so far this year. Bryant also has more games of two scores than he does zero or one scores through six appearances.
NINE. Washington’s Denzel Boston is currently second in the FBS with nine receiving scores on 40 receptions. He trails Nick Nash by only one score, but has caught 22 less passes than him.
FIVE. The race for CFF QB1 is currently led by (in four point passing formats) the two service academy QBs: Blake Horvath (35.9 PPG) and Bryson Dailey (33.5). Only five QBs, including those two, are averaging over 30 PPG in four point passing TD formats currently.
ONE HUNDRED & NINE. BSU RB Ashton Jeanty has more rushing yards than 109 FBS football teams.
Picture this: it’s a cool fall Sunday morning in Columbus Ohio when freshman WR Jeremiah Smith decides to get in some extra work early in the morning at the facilities. He’s alone in the building before anyone else arrives—or at least, so he thinks. Amidst his first lift he hears a smattering of faint voices in the distance.
Smith, thinking it might be a teammate, inquires out loud “Carnell, is that you? I know you’ve been sneaking around the facility all season hoping to spook me back to Miami. Look man, I’m sorry about taking your targets, it’s nothing personal, alright?”
No reply is received so he shrugs it off—after all, it’s the month of Halloween and it is also common knowledge amongst the Buckeye program that the ghost of Jim Harbaugh still lingers throughout the Ohio State facilities, haunting the players and staff alike with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind.
A few moments pass and yet another whisper can be heard. This time, Smith decides to take action. He follows the voice into the bowels of the OSU football facility and as he approaches the room where the noise is coming from, another sound can be heard… could it be… music? Curious, he Shazams the sound on his iPhone… I Still Believe by Tim Cappello flashes on the screen.
“What the fuck is this shit?” Smith utters to himself.
Now he’s only a few feet from the room in question. Loud shouting can be heard. A familiar voice… perhaps Ryan Day’s. Smith opens the door slowly to peek through. Indeed, he does in fact find one Ohio State head coach Ryan Day, with a juke box on his shoulder, in an animated yelling match with some of OSU’s most enthusiastic boosters.
“We unraveled in the face of the enemy!” They collectively yell at him.
(Day) “It's not our fault, they pulled a mind scramble on us! They fielded 12 players at the end of the game!”
Ross Bjork—the new athletic director—turns off Ryan’s jukebox and interjects:
“You know, Ryan, I’ve seen this situation play out a lot in my career. You remember Jimbo, right? I fired him last year with the Aggies. I’ve fired a lot of coaches in my life. It’s never a pretty sight. No two coaches go the same way. Some yell and scream, some go quietly, some explode, some implode, but all will try to take you with them.”
Bjork sits next to Day to comfort him, offering him some rice to eat, which Ryan promptly refuses. Disturbed, Bjork then continues:
“They call me the Prince of Darkness. The Night Crawler. The bloodsucker. El Vampiro. You get me? Those who’ve followed my career will notice a pattern. Whenever things go wrong, I get promoted, and the coaches get fired in short order…
So let this be a lesson to you, you silly little boy: Never ever invite a vampire into your house. And why? Because it messes with the cohesion of the organization.”
Day replies “I still believe…”
“Yea? Well you and that asshole Will Howard are the only ones. Tell that wanker that we’re not in Kansas anymore… Next time he fails to read the game clock I'm sending his ass back to Manhattan.”
There’s no better place to start this week than with this stat: Ryan Day is now 2-6 against top five teams following a close loss to the Ducks this past Saturday.
I know I’m speaking for everyone when I say this weekend’s heavy weight battle between Oregon and Ohio State was truly something incredible to behold—two immovable forces colliding against each other—Lanning’s refusal to take the easy points to close the game out vs. that wanker Ryan Day’s inability to win big games. A death match for the ages, one could say.
Day’s inability to win the big one is something that should (and hopefully will be) studied rigorously at an academic institution in the near future. When that study concludes I would also like to see an analysis answering the question of where the hell has Evan Stewart been all year? Or at least, where has that version of him been??
Stewart looked like the former five star player he is with a not too shabby 149 yard and one score game vs. Denzel Burk, a player who is expected to be drafted to the NFL this spring (or at least, prior to this game he was).
Those of you who just started watching college ball this season may be wondering who Evan Stewart even is. I should probably take this opportunity to remind the reader that Stewart was once considered neck and neck with Luther Burden as a prospect, with many believing that Stewart was actually the best in his class at WR.
One unsettling decision to play for Jimbo’s A&M Aggies later and here we are. While Burden chose an offence that tailored itself to his skills, Stewart toiled away in relative obscurity for the last two seasons. Many, including myself, hoped he’d step into the Troy Franklin role with his offseason move to the Ducks. Thus far, that hasn’t been the case… though to be fair the Ducks QB Dillon Gabriel has also had an up-and-down season so far.
Luckily for the Ducks, while the passing attack has sputtered at times this year, the ground game continues to anchor the offence. I’m guessing UGA’s staff wishes they held onto Jordan James right about now instead of tossing him to the side for one Andrew Paul, who currently plays his football for the Jacksonville State Gamecocks. By the way, did you know JSU doesn’t even play in Jacksonville, FL? Apparently there’s another Jacksonville in Alabama, which is where the Gamecocks actually play. That fact has left me questioning everything I think I know in this world.
Speaking of regrets, you think OU misses Dillon Gabriel? On the same weekend where the Sooners got their asses handed to them in the Red River Rivalry, Gabriel won the biggest game of his career. Pushing Gabriel out for Jackson Arnold, who himself looks like a transfer candidate now with Michael Hawkins taking over, is proving to be a disastrous move for the Sooners.
Something interesting that caught my eye on twitter this weekend was a mock draft that included Alabama defensive linemen LT Overton in the first round of the NFL draft. Overton played his high school ball at Milton, a program in Atlanta that just had a pretty sick stadium renovation, and was originally in the class of 2023, meaning he normally would not even be eligible this year for the draft. Due to the reclassification, he is, and it got me wondering: with reclassifications becoming more frequent, when was the last time someone was drafted in the first round in the first year that they were eligible (i.e. in their actual sophomore year prior to reclassifying)?
Quinn Ewers is now in his true junior year (fourth year out of high school after reclassifying), and could be taken in the first, but I can’t think of any examples where the reclassification worked out exactly as planned with a first round draft position in the first year that that player was eligible. To be fair, it’s still a rare phenomenon, but LT Overton might actually be the first example of reclassifying and getting drafted in the first round three years removed from high school. Even more interesting is if LT Overton does it, the next player to probably do it will be another Alabama player in Ryan Williams. I guess there’s something in the water down there in Tuscaloosa…
On this week’s run with Henri—a known B1G hater—he lamented to me about PSU’s ranking at #3 in this week’s AP Poll. I know he’s not the only one who is frustrated over the annual cycle of over ranking PSU just to see James “Soul Plane” Franklin blow it when they play their first big game. Admittedly, beating USC on the road is no small task, though understandably most are still in wait-and-see mode with a game vs. Ohio State looming on November 2nd. The last time PSU overcame OSU was in 2016.
Speaking of big games, there is probably none bigger than Texas vs. UGA in Austin this week. The momentum favours the Horns, and credit is due to Steve Sarkisian for his efforts in building that program into what it is today, arguably the best football program in America. I’m old enough to remember when UT was a known wanker program akin to a Lincoln Riley USC team (see image below, Ceedee Lamb scored on this play in the Red River Shoutout in 2019).
But here’s something to consider for this week’s matchup: the QBs that have given Kirby’s defence trouble in the past are almost always mobile QBs who can extend the pocket. The 2020 team vs. Mac Jones is the only time where a non-play extending QB beat UGA convincingly and I’m chucking that one up to a terrible UGA offence that couldn’t stay on the field.
Besides Mac Daddy Jones, the list is: Joe Burrow in 2019, Bryce Young in 2021, CJ Stroud in 2022, and Jalen Milroe in 2024. Each of those QBs used their legs to extend plays and avoid the rush vs. UGA’s front seven in their respective games vs. the Dawgs.
To that end, I’d almost be more worried if it were Arch Manning who was starting. Quinn Ewers has been in that system for three years now, and is an effective QB, but what he isn’t is a mobile play extender. Luckily for the Horns, their offensive line is probably the best in CFB. Furthermore, while UGA’s DL might be the best unit of the defence this year, the overall level of player is not to the same standard of years past.
Another consideration is that UGA QB Carson Beck hasn’t been the same player on the road vs. home. That’s usually true of all players on all teams but certain players have a drastic split in home vs. away numbers, and Beck fits that category.
One number to summarize this point is Beck’s passing efficiency. Every game played in Athens so far he’s completed over 70% of his passes. In the two away games, he completed 54 and 62.5% of his passes vs. Alabama and Kentucky, respectively. The sample is skewed due to playing harder competition on the road, though, so that definitely has something to do with it.
However, Beck has 12 passing TDs to only 2 INTs in Athens, while he is 3-3 on the road so far, and 5-3 overall when including the neutral game vs. Clemson. That means that the defence may have to pick up a lot of slack on Saturday, and if UGA is unable to get pressure on Quinn Ewers, it could be a long day for the Dawgs. ◾
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(And Go Blue! “The Ghost of Jim Harbaugh” ha!) 〽️