The CFB Degenerate's Newsletter: Valentine's Day Edition

This week: The coaching carousel from hell + its implications, late risers in the 2024 cycle, and HBD to VolumePigs.

You’re born a thousand men… you die as just one.

- Eric Tao, Industry (2020)

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Late Movements in the Coaching Carousel

Feeling fatigued with coaching carousel news? I don’t blame you. We’re now into mid-February and we’re still seeing shakeups across the sport. At least with the latest round of moves, we can say pretty definitively that Saban’s retirement had nothing to do with them, so I think we can officially conclude that the domino effects from that one have finalized, finally.

Boston College (BC) HC Jeff Hafley to be DC at Green Bay — First things first, on another set of domino effects, Jeff Hafley voluntarily stepped down as head coach at BC and took the defensive coordinator job at Green Bay, rejoining the NFL ranks. Is this a troubling sign for college football (CFB)? Perhaps. It’s no secret coaches absolutely loath the state of the transfer portal and NIL recruiting (or re-recruiting I suppose), so this move isn’t so surprising. On the other hand, BC can be a tough place to win. While this is changing, there are not a lot of elite athletes up that way of the country, and BC doesn't really have a name brand to sell in Florida or Georgia, meaning whoever is in charge of talent acquisition better be creative. The current roster — as it stands at least — is in pretty good shape, though. They are coming off a 7-6 record in 2023, so things could be worse for BC’s next CEO.

Bill O’Brien to be head coach of BC — O’Brien was originally announced as the new offensive coordinator of Ohio State (OSU) earlier this year. The announcement was met with a lukewarm response from the College Fantasy Football (CFF) crowd, as it wasn’t really clear that O’Brien would be a value-add in that mix. As it turns out, any such hand wringing was all for not, because he pivoted quickly to secure the BC head coaching opening. As far as what remains of the BC roster, you still have to look to a player like QB Thomas Castellanos and his WR1 Lewis Bond as potential viable CFF assets. Especially Castellanos. I know O’Brien doesn’t have a great reputation right now, but he was pretty good with Bryce Young at Alabama. The RB situation currently is a mess and will likely skew committee under BOB.

Kentucky (UK) OC Liam Coen to the NFL — Some unfortunate news here, because UK has been a safe haven for CFF RB assets for multiple seasons now with Coen as OC under Mark Stoops, head coach of the Wildcats. Coen accepted the OC job at Tampa Bay, which left an opening for UK to fill. What does this mean for a RB like Chip Trayanum, who I wrote about in December, and was quite optimistic about at the time? Depends on who the new hire is.

Boise State (BSU) OC Bush Hamden to UK — So lucky us, UK moved fairly quickly and secured the services of BSU OC Bush Hamden. I say lucky, but that might be a bit premature. The truth is, Hamden hasn’t really been around as a play caller, so I don’t really know what to expect from him. He did call plays for BSU last season, though, and that was a pretty good one for Ashton Jeanty. Before last season he was the QBs/WRs coach at Mizzou. He was the OC of UW in 2018 and 2019, and both seasons featured a 1000 yard rusher, though only one of those two saw more than 200 carries (Myles Gaskin, 253). The other finished with only 188 carries. So, premature optimism might be the right term for it, but I’m just glad the new addition isn’t a major strike against the RB profile here.

Michigan (UM) hires internally for new OC — With former OC Sherrone Moore taking over the head coaching position in Jim Harbaugh’s absence, the Wolverines had shoes to fill on the offensive side of the staff. The new OC— Kirk Campbell, is being promoted from offensive line coach. He has a very limited track record as a play caller, but he was the OC at Old Dominion (ODU) in 2020 and 2021. The COVID year was forgettable on all accounts, but 2021 featured a 1000-yard rusher (Blake Watson) and a 1000-yard receiver (Ali Jennings). Keep that in the back your mind this offseason. I will be writing about UM eventually, of course.

Iowa finally finds its new OC — Tim Lester is joining the program after spending last year as a senior analyst for the Green Bay Packers. Prior to that stint, he was the head coach of Western Michigan (WMU) from 2017-22. Want to talk about pig farming? How about this: in five of Lester’s six seasons at WMU, the Broncos featured a 1000-yard rusher, including Levante Bellamy’s ridiculous 2019 season where he rushed for 23 TDs on 266 carries. Let’s circle back to Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson later this offseason.

Alabama is back on the market for an OC — Former Washington (UW) OC Ryan Grubb, who followed Kalen DeBoer from UW to Alabama, announced he will be staying in the Pacific Northwest, and will be OCing the Seattle Seahawks of the NFL. On one hand, you can say this is a loss for Alabama, as Grubb and KD have a lot of history together, and their familiarity would have likely been a big plus during the transition year. On the other, from a system standpoint, the scheme is mostly KD’s design (apparently, at least), so this is not a material change in terms of where the CFF value might be on the Alabama roster. I’ve already written about the RB and WR positions this offseason.

*Tuesday Night Update on Alabama OC search* — The Tide have promoted from within— Nick Sheridan, who was the TE coach at UW with DeBoer, and came over to fill the same role at Alabama, has accepted the promotion to OC. Most likely, he will be more of a figure head here as DeBoer will probably be responsible for calling plays… most of the time at least. Sheridan does have prior OC experience, he served in this role at Indiana in 2020 and 2021.

Buffalo (UB) hires new HC — Speaking of the Crimson Tide, you’ll recall that they poached UB’s head coach Maurice Linguist in January. He is replaced by South Carolina special teams coordinator Pete Pembo, who has long ties to the MAC in his head coaching experience. His OC will be Dave Patenaude, who was an analyst at UVA last season, and the OC of ODU in 2022. He was also the OC at Georgia Tech (GT) from 2019-21, and OC of Temple 2017-18. Notably, ODU had a 1000-yard receiving in 2022 in Ali Jennings, and Patenaude’s 2021 GT team had RB Jahmyr Gibbs clear 1000 yards total. This will be an interesting program to follow, once again, this offseason. More questions than answers will be the theme, I suspect.

UCLA HC Chip Kelly to OC OSU — As mentioned earlier, BOB backed out as the new OC at OSU, leaving a gap that needed to be filled for the Buckeyes. UCLA’s HC Chip Kelly interviewed and secured this position fairly quickly. From the outside looking in, it might appear as an odd move. You have an HC of a B1G program stepping down to be the OC of… another B1G program? Well, not quite. It’s the worst kept secret in CFB that UCLA’s AD wanted to fire Kelly and that decision was likely imminent this upcoming season once sufficient funds were raised. Kelly likely knew this in advance, and figured he’d be proactive, which on the surface, looks better at least.

The good news is he brings an elite track record of production and usage at the RB position with him. The bad news is OSU has two RBs that need to be fed in TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. They also have a run-heavy QB in Will Howard, and a boatload of former high end WR recruits who signed with OSU under the impression that they were going to be utilized and developed to an elite degree. Which force wins out here?

Personally — counterintuitive as this may seem — I am just in avoid mode for now (in non-bestball formats, that is). Too much noise here for me. I’m happy to miss out on the RBs if one or both are great CFF assets, but choosing to start players when you’re not sure what their role is week-to-week makes me queasy. I’ll write more on this situation this offseason.

UCLA hires its next HC — And finally, at the end of the falling dominoes is UCLA’s open vacancy. Kelly moving to OSU meant UCLA needed to fill that role, and while names like UNLV’s Brennan Marion were speculated, it turned out to UCLA’s RB coach who won out in the end. An internal hire, UCLA RB coach Deshaun Foster served in that role from 2017 to 2023. During that time, particularly under Kelly, Foster oversaw four 1000-yard rushers. That would appear to be good news for TJ Harden, who is an ascendent pig this offseason with Carson Steele moving on. On the downside, we don’t have a history to go off of with Foster as a play caller, so there’s more uncertainty now than we had before with Kelly. It should be noted that in his time as RBs coach without Kelly (UCLA in 2017, Texas Tech in 2016), neither of Foster’s RB1s cleared 1000 yards, or 140 carries, for that matter.

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Late Risers in the 2024 Cycle

247 Sports released their late risers in the 2024 cycle, and a few of them may be of our interest as CFF players.

• Vanderbilt WR Joseph McVay — I’ve already written about McVay here this offseason. Here’s the excerpt from 247 on why he ascended late in the cycle:

  McVay has long had plenty of fans behind the scenes at 247Sports and made the annual Freaks List in August due to an extensive multi-sport profile: a 6-foot-6 scissor-kicking high jump to go along with top-tier production on the basketball with plenty of show-stopping dunks for someone that’s believed to hovering around 6-foot-1, 190 pound listing.

  The Earle (Ark.) star’s superb athleticism could very well get him on the field early in Nashville and possibly in a return role, but even if it takes McVay some time to get acclimated to SEC competition we’re bullish on his ability to eventually become a legitimate field-stretching target and yards-after-catch dynamo during his collegiate career.

• Vanderbilt TE Bryce Coleman — With similar reasoning to McVay, Coleman is an intriguing true freshman player because Vandy’s WR room completely cleared out this offseason. Between Sheppard, Humphrys and Jayden McGowan, the Commodores are vacating 105 catches, 1506 yards, and 12 TDs. While 247 mentions the possibility of a redshirt, Vandy might need bodies ASAP this season, forcing Coleman to see the field earlier than expected. He is a four star prospect on 247’s ranking, and a three star in the composite.

  Kudos to the folks in Nashville for seeing the big picture with Brycen Coleman. Recent NFL Draft trends continue to show that the tight ends selected early on usually did a variety of different things in high school, and at a high level. Coleman checks that box off, and he does so in style.

  A three-sport athlete that averaged almost a double-double on the hardwood as a 11th grader, Coleman is the first player in Maryland history to accumulate more than 1,000 receiving, rushing and passing yards in his career. He spent most of his senior season working at quarterback and ended up leading Stephen Decatur to a 14-0 record and a 2A state championship.

  The 6-foot-5 Coleman might need a redshirt year or two to get adjusted to life as a pass catcher (and pass blocker) in the SEC, but he appears to just be scratching the surface of what he can be with his budding foundation and fluid movements. 

• East Carolina (ECU) WR Yannick Smith — ECU’s in need of a new wave of playmakers to step up in 2024, after a dud of a year in 2023. The current staff features a HC who had two 1000-yard receivers in 2021, but hasn’t had one otherwise in the other four of his five seasons at ECU. The new OC— John David Baker, comes over by way of Ole Miss, where he was the co-OC and TEs coach 2022-23. Here’s what 247 had to say about the incoming ECU four star freshman Yannick Smith:

  “Should have signed with a Power Five.”

  That’s what an SEC staffer had to say about Yannick Smith, who initially caught our eye at the Shrine Bowl of the Carolinas in December. Smith is a decorated basketball player that was named South Carolina’s Class 5A Basketball Player of the Year as a junior after averaging 18.5 points per game for Summerville.

  He can produce on the gridiron, too. As a senior, Smith caught 69 passes for 1,528 yards and 19 touchdowns while also rushing for 405 yards and five more scores.

  Kentucky and some other SEC schools kicked the tires on Smith down the stretch, but he stayed true to his word and looks like he could emerge as the focal point of the Pirates’ offense in the coming years given how he eats up cushion with his release and finds ways to get into the end zone.

• Stanford RB Cole Tabb — A fun-sized prospect, 5-foot-7 Cole Tabb joins Stanford with a pretty impressive resume as an athlete (details are provided below). Stanford’s current HC was the OC at Utah when Zack Moss went over 1000-yards in back-to-back seasons (2017-18). He was also the HC at Sacremento State when now-Arizona State RB Cameron Skattebo eclipsed 1000 yards (2022). Shockingly, Stanford’s top two runners last season were both QBs. That might be more to do with the talent that was available than the desire of the staff (I would hope so, at least). A four star out of Florida, I’d tuck this name away for the future.

  Possesses the build to excel at running back with a 5-foot-7-plus, 190-pound stature coupled with impressive functional athleticism and verified speed markers in multiple settings. Tabb, who ran for nearly 5,500 career yards at Fort Walton Beach (Fla.) Choctawhatchee, finished his senior year with 1,826 yards and 18 touchdowns on 8.65 yards per carry.

  Tabb owns verified 4.5 combine speed, as well as a handful of sub-11.00-second 100-meter times, including a couple wind-aided 10.8-second reps and a 10.99-second time into a slight headwind. Tabb also boasts Florida 3A weight lifting title, which came as a junior when he snatched 240 pounds, cleaned 335 and benched 305.

  The combination of speed, explosion, power, and production — not to mention the naturally low center of gravity and pad level — makes Tabb a talented back who could become an NFL Draft candidate down the road.

• Oklahoma State WR Tre Griffiths — Mike Gundy’s Pokes might not be the apex of prior CFF WR production, but they have been pretty solid with producing notable boundary receivers over the years. I don’t expect their team to be a heavy passing team in 2024 with Ollie Gordon and 100% of OL snaps returning, but Griffiths is still a name to familiarize yourself with for the future. If anything, you’ll want to keep an eye on him due to the player comp alone.

  Keller (Texas) wideout Tre Griffiths displayed noticeably improved explosiveness during his 2023 senior season, which resulted in career highs in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. Griffiths continues to hone his route-running acumen and suddenness laterally, but his linear burst is not in question. Griffiths’ on-field athleticism undoubtedly derives in part from his outstanding triple jump data, which include leaps of 47-foot-10 1/4 and 47-foot-7 1/2, which earned fourth in the Texas 6A state finals and second in regionals, respectively.

  Reviewing Griffiths’ senior season, I couldn’t help but get some Elijah Higgins vibes. Higgins was a bit heavier coming out of high school, but the 2023 fifth-round draft pick and Griffiths share a similar play style and frames. Griffiths might need a little time, but he possesses traits that suggest similar NFL Draft upside.

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Articles Posted At Campus2Canton

• Arkansas State QB Jaylen Raynor

• Ohio State RBs Quinshon Judkins & TreVeyon Henderson (pre Kelly news)

• Nebraska WR Jaylen Lloyd

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HBD to VolumePigs (Boring Backstory + Thank You For Being Here)

Note: This is a heads up that the proceeding text offers no CFF insights, and I doubt you’ll find it entertaining to read. If you’re interested in some background of how this publication started, keep reading. If not, I recommend stopping here.

Last week was my Birthday, but it wasn’t what I was celebrating. That’s because the birthday of VolumePigs was the very next day (February 7th). At risk of sounding cliché, it really does feel like it was just yesterday that I uploaded the first article of this publication. Time flies, as they say.

The other day I was listening to a podcaster who mentioned that people come up to him all the time in real life and say things like ‘I feel like I know you’. He explained that his answer to them is it’s because they do. He further elaborated on this point by explaining that if you’ve listened to 100s of hours to someone talking online, you really do know them in some capacity.

As I write this article, Substack tells me I have published nearly 180 articles. If you’ve been here since February 7th of last year, that’s a lot of dialogue, albeit mostly one way. An email into one’s inbox is sort of an intimate relationship. It’s not the same as a follow on social media in my mind. It requires a much higher degree of amicability between the reader and the writer.

So how did VP start? Why did I start it etc… blah blah blah. I told you this section would be boring ahead of time, here’s another warning to check out now.

The idea was hatched between a friend and I in 2021, during our bike rides. I basically sat on the idea for all of 2022. There wasn’t any particular reason why I didn’t start, I just never went out of my way to do it. I suppose I should admit now that the name was his idea, though he would have never thought of it if it weren’t for me (that’s what I’m telling the lawyers, anyway). The name is based on my philosophy towards talent acquisition in CFF, and it was through this knowledge transfer during our bike rides and football throwing sessions that our colloquial term volume pig, was born.

In early 2023 I finally decided that it was time to stop procrastinating, and that I should just bite the bullet and figure out what I needed to do to start this newsletter. My friend was the one who told me about Substack, he also helped me navigate purchasing a domain (he started his own digital marketing business a few years earlier), and then from there it was pretty easy. I just started writing articles on Substack, and then I would publish them and share them on the relevant platforms. In my first post, I basically just spam tagged a bunch of the CFF industry guys that I followed on X for reach, since I didn’t have any followers or subscribers.

One of the interesting things that I found early on when I started was that in the first week I probably had about a dozen subscribers, however of those 12 people, eight or nine were large content creators in the space. So effectively, my subscriber network was already quite vast from day one because these guys would share my work (which is a nod to how great the CFF community is, by the way). I took it as a good sign that the guys who I followed for CFF content all of these years, approved of what I was doing.

Some of the names who I owe thank yous to include Jared Palmgren, who was a very active advocate for my work, and was generous enough to invite me onto his show in April, and then again as a regular during the season. He’s a fantastic presence in this space, and if we’re talking VolumePigs in terms of workload, he fits the description to a tee. Good CFF player, but an even better guy.

Another name is Nate Marchese, who sent a message to me on X within the first few weeks of my publishing. He probably won’t remember that message but I was having a horrendous week when he sent me that, and his out of the blue compliment was a huge boost for me at the time. So it was pretty neat when I found myself 10 months later competing in the finals of his dynasty CFF league. Hopefully, he won’t mind me sharing a photo.

The next acknowledgement should be to the rest of the guys at Campus2Canton like Austin and Felix. They both shared my work early on too, and in March of 2023, reached out to me to gage my interest in joining their amazing company, Campus2Canton. What’s funny is about a week before they reached out, I remember seeing C2C posts on X; they already had such a huge following, and I remember thinking (half jokingly), “wow, I guess these guys are my competitors now, I should really be thinking in those terms”. But I wasn’t, and never did, because that wasn’t the vibe at all in this space. Again, this is a testament to the environment of the CFF community as a whole.

There are many other acknowledgements that should be made, but I can’t list them all out in this article. I should make sure I mention Kevin Coleman, though, who is one of the best guys in this space, period. He invited me into his discord very early on, and was an advocate for my work as well. He’s also just a great person for advice.

One of the feedbacks I get a lot, or at least did when I first started writing these articles, was that the quality of the writing was good. While I appreciate this, obviously, this is a constant process of improvement. Typos and errors are still made occasionally. Part of me wonders that maybe people are so inundated with bad, uninspired writing, that when something comes along that is at least half decent, it gets mistaken as good writing.

If you’re still reading at this point, I assume you’re at least half interested in this back story, so I should explain where my writing style comes from, and what my background is.

The first core influence are the authors of the Math textbooks I used to spend hours pouring over in university. Through my late teens and early 20s, essentially the only reading I was doing was of these textbooks, and I was spending hours following along the pedagogy of the mathematics professors who wrote them. Simply put, I loved their style. The language was formal, yet syntactically pleasing and easy to read. It was almost like they wrote sentences as if they were coding syntax for a software program.

It may be counterintuitive to many that mathematics books would be some of the most useful tools (in my opinion) to improve one’s writing and communication. I think the realm of mathematics is one of the best areas to learn these skills, and it should be noted that at the higher levels of the discipline, you spend an awful lot of time simply learning how to construct logical arguments. This, of course, naturally fits well into what I do with these articles for CFF.

The second core influence comes from my time working as an Economist at the Bank of Canada. In this role, I was responsible for producing a lot of formal writing which would be circulated throughout the bank all the way up to the top of the pyramid. I hated what I was writing, but my time there did painstakingly imprint some attention to detail and quality control components into my thought process.

I still shutter whenever I see a typo after hitting ‘publish’ on here—it invokes a sort of PTSD of a more tumultuous time in my life. Below is what the R Markdown console looks like. This is the software I was writing these articles in at the Bank. I’m pretty sure my eyesight has been permanently altered from this time.

Now I know, I know, everyone has their own problems and believe you me, I’m not here to get on my soap box. But I will say this— the beginning of 2023 was not a good time in my life, and this publication was essentially born out of that. The feedback I received early on helped bring me out of that place and turn this publication into what it is now, and for that, I thank you.

Cheers to another good year ahead, pigs. 🥂

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